What is the best method in winning baccarat?

[vinfong318]

Hi,

I have been using NOR and other methods that posted here at BTC to play baccarat. Result ? Sometimes I win and sometimes I lose.

NOR is very useful but shoe changes make it difficult to catch.(The Stop Loss point does help)

I feel lost sometimes on which method to use to play at different shoes, sometimes if I choose the right method, my every bet was very accurate that the people beside me thought that I am GOD OF GAMBLER....... hahaha......

The more we learn the more we know and this confuse us. I did play with some senior at BTC here, sometimes I believe that they lose becos they know too much methods in playing the game. They deploy different strategies where it could be just a simple S40 shoe etc.

My question here is that can this game be as simple as it can be, anyway its a game of 50 / 50 and we should have a simple method to play this game right?

[Guest]

Hi,

I have been using NOR and other methods that posted here at BTC to play baccarat. Result ? Sometimes I win and sometimes I lose.

NOR is very useful but shoe changes make it difficult to catch.(The Stop Loss point does help)

I feel lost sometimes on which method to use to play at different shoes, sometimes if I choose the right method, my every bet was very accurate that the people beside me thought that I am GOD OF GAMBLER....... hahaha......

The more we learn the more we know and this confuse us. I did play with some senior at BTC here, sometimes I believe that they lose becos they know too much methods in playing the game. They deploy different strategies where it could be just a simple S40 shoe etc.

My question here is that can this game be as simple as it can be, anyway its a game of 50 / 50 and we should have a simple method to play this game right?

While Baccarat may be the easiest game in the casino to play, according to casino profits, it is the hardest game to win. Once you know a good approach like NOR, winning becomes mostly a function of practice and experience. Choosing the right system gets easier over time.

But you are correct, switching systems too often and at the first sign of trouble, is the most frequently made mistake even by experienced players. For instance, In the 6 shoes Dave recorded at ImSpirit, I only switched systems ONCE in six shoes, yet played to a 26% Player Advantage with only one 4 bet in six shoes. Yet we see members here even advocating switching after only 2 lost bets. This is a mistake. You haven't really lost anything until you have lost the third bet. Every switch you make lessens your chance of winning. You can't gamble W/O gambling and you can't gamble W/O betting.

The second biggest mistake is waiting too long. Some wait until they think they see a sure thing. There are no sure things in gambling. I'm often out of the shoe with my +10 before they even make their first bet. By then it may well be too late. We can't expect a shoe to stay good forever. Yet too many bet on that very thing. If you don't know what to play in the first several hands, the shoe is probably not worth playing.

Is it Choppy, Streaky or Neutral? Once you know that, get in the shoe. Mode can be determined as you go. Once you are in the shoe the race is on. Can you get to +10 before the shoe turns bad? That is often determined by how quickly you got in, in the first place. Recognize that it is possible to play so safe that you give yourself no chance to win.

[vinfong318]

Yes, NOR works and when it does not work we see nightmare....... But Ellis you told us quit after 8 units losses , if I flat bet does it mean I have to quit after 3 unit losses?

Using OR count and monitoring the direction does it help us to decide whether to bet on 1st liner or 2nd liner?

I met a bias shoe and won about 10 units flat betting because the OR count is positive and I bet straightly on 1st liner.... it appears to have only 2 - 2's only through out the process...

NOR is easy to use but I always forget about the cut loss or when is the best time to cut loss? Especially the mode changes.........from mode 3 to mode 2 vise versa......

Please advise thanks.

[Guest]

Yes, NOR works and when it does not work we see nightmare....... But Ellis you told us quit after 8 units losses , if I flat bet does it mean I have to quit after 3 unit losses?

Using OR count and monitoring the direction does it help us to decide whether to bet on 1st liner or 2nd liner?

I met a bias shoe and won about 10 units flat betting because the OR count is positive and I bet straightly on 1st liner.... it appears to have only 2 - 2's only through out the process...

NOR is easy to use but I always forget about the cut loss or when is the best time to cut loss? Especially the mode changes.........from mode 3 to mode 2 vise versa......

Please advise thanks.

The applicable rule here is never bet 2 units before you have won a 1 unit bet. I don't allow a shoe to go all the way to -8 W/O good reason. A good reason would be if I have been doing well at a table for several hours I might give a new shoe at that table more chance than a new shoe at a new table. But if I average all of my losing shoes together, that average would be closer to -4 than -8.

Sure, it's possible that a bad shoe will turn good but this is seldom the case. Bad shoes usually stay bad. Just as good shoes usually stay good. Therefore, in the long run, the sooner you leave bad tables the better off you are. Ask yourself "am I better off staying in this struggling shoe or finding a better table??? There is almost always a good game somewhere. The sooner we find that table the better.

We have all had the misadventure of sitting at a losing table for hours while watching all the players win at the table right next door. Pride and Baccarat don't mix. Our DUTY is always to find the best table in the casino even if this sometimes takes a couple of false starts. Hey, the game is tough enough when we stick to the best tables. But staying at a bad table is an amateur mistake.

Mode changes: We like games that stay in the same mode. Those are easy but especially with preshuffled cards we don't always get a stable mode. The quicker we recognize an unstable mode the better. The best defense againt unstable modes is to stay in Mode 2 because it is the cheaper of the 2 Modes. Then instead of making our OTR bet 3 (Mode 2) or 4 (Mode 3) we go back to a 1 bet OTR. But if that 1 bet loses, the next time we go OTR we go 2 and so forth - a prog within a prog. When S40 won 40 shoes in a row, that was the way it was played.

Those of you who are forced to play new preshuffled cards every shoe might well choose to play that conservative way all the time because it takes the Mode question right out of the game. Just reduce your stop win accordingly. +10 or even +8 are viable stop wins for such conservative play.

Or, faced with those conditions you might want to favor net betting because NB also does not depend on modes and is usually more forgiving.

While many of our players prefer net betting regardless, I am teaching it primarily for those who must play preshuffled cards all the time every shoe.

But we must always keep an open mind whenever we enter a casino. Never make up your mind what you are going to play before you've seen what you are up against. Casino conditions are seldom the same 2 days in a row. What are you seeing and what method beats what you are seeing best? The trick to doing that is to know the likes and dislikes of ALL of the systems you know. I'n not talking about just a passing knowledge here. I'm talking about complete familiarity with the likes and dislikes of each system. You need to get to the point where you can simply glance at a tote board and KNOW which system is best. Trial and error doesn't cut it. You must KNOW. That is the whole secret of successful Baccarat.

While I don't prefer them, Preshuffled cards is not the end of the world. Sometimes they are even more biased than conventional cards. But sometimes they aren't biased at all. That is what Net Betting is for. High 3s play OvR. high 1s and or 2s, play PvB. This is not rocket science but it is not easy either. Practice and experience.

That pile of shoes you have accumulated at home makes for a great practice tool. Get to the point where you can glance at a shoe and automatically know the best system to beat it. Now you're cooking!

[Raymond]

thanks Ellis....your advice is always very good and your approach is very structured. Indeed amateur like me always make unforgiving mistakes which does mean i need more practices down the road. i wish you can consider organising a class in Singapore for players like us.

[ztomsk]

Do you ever recommend playing the progression within a progression OTR/ATR when the mode IS biased? Just in case if you wanted to play conservative regardless of mode. Even if its mode 3, but with it but just bet 1 unit, 2 etc? Obviously if it kept staying in mode 3 you would be missing out of units since you would only be winning back 1 unit instead of 3.

[ddbcinti]

Has anyone played in Tunica lately? If so, how were the games? Has anyone played at the Gold Strike lately?

[Guest]

Has anyone played in Tunica lately? If so, how were the games? Has anyone played at the Gold Strike lately?

Hi again DD. I play Gold Strike / Horseshoe, Tunica quite often. I think it might be the best games in the whole world. I especially like new cards at GS in the morning. Their new card prep nearly always produces a good OTB4L or S40 game for the first several shoes. And while you are playing, you can watch for other new tables to open and pretty much play new cards all morning and early afternoon. But at night, look for streaky F tables.

No funny business there. They are very customer oriented. I usually win most shoes by sticking to new cards and sometimes I win every shoe. I have won 20 shoes in a row there several times.

[Guest]

Do you ever recommend playing the progression within a progression OTR/ATR when the mode IS biased? Just in case if you wanted to play conservative regardless of mode. Even if its mode 3, but with it but just bet 1 unit, 2 etc? Obviously if it kept staying in mode 3 you would be missing out of units since you would only be winning back 1 unit instead of 3.

Wow ztomsk, that is a surprisingly good question! I sometimes do this to get the day started until I really get a handle on the lay of the land. But I stay in Mode 2. This keeps your bets lowest. That is how S40 was played when it won 40 shoes in a row. Use a +10 stop win. Then if all goes well, I often upgrade my betting to U1D2 and my stop win to +20. That can get a little hairy sometimes but it usually works at a table you already know is a good table. This keeps Mode guessing out of the picture altogether.

[daytrader77459]

Hi, Ellis, BTC players,

I hope you can indulge me with my observations of this net betting research recently on BTC. I've been reading and researching the entire NB dialogue including the PvB, OvR, OvT. Plus the various start loops of 0, 00, 0L0. Plus the dialogue on handling sporadic 1's, and of course, the variations on the delayed or no bet hds and the proposed re-start bet triggers.

I must admit after all of the studying, I think it is important to highlight to new members and players - that the NOR approach is still one of the best balanced approach to winning baccarat. Within the NOR approach, Ellis had incorporated the various 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, 4+s, events into the system. He has elaborated in detail which shoe types match best to the NOR systems. And of course, the nemesis patterns for the NOR systems. In addition for new players, the NOR betting scheme is relatively modest - can be started with 111, or 112 - and then ramp up quickly to 123 or better if the shoe is "paying out" using the NOR systems. Finally, NOR also teaches the important concepts of locking in profits via the dozens, or hitting max highs 2-3x. And most often, losing shoes are only at (-8 units).

In reviewing the variations and questions related to the net betting systems, it reminds me of the Twister, Anti-Twister, U2hi, U3hi, etc. All are excellent methods, BUT - every system and betting scheme will LOSE to some nemesis patterns. To spend time optimizing, and sub-optimizing, on these variations may not prove to be profitable in the long run for the high performance baccarat player. When a few shoes lose, and the restart, or no bet, or bet progressions, or whatever, are altered in light of a few losing tough shoes, the "new" net betting systems/triggers will again fail to something else.

In addition to the inherent flaws of microscopic suboptimized "rules and betting schemes" based off a few tough shoes, there is another problem for BTC players in terms of complexity and "enjoyability" of playing baccarat at a high level. When one changes starts like 0 vs 00 vs 11 vs 0L0, or the bets 12 34 56 are altered - and delayed and no bet areas are included - these can often overwhelm the players and take the enjoyment out of the baccarat playing. Handling sporadic 1s, or excess 1s or long runs, etc. Well, the facts are that many shoes will have areas of heavy chops vs heavy streaks vs concentrated areas of 2s and 3s. That is the nature of random chaos of events. Especially given the high numbers of casinos now using preshuffled boxed 8 decks in midi bacc tables and big bacc tables.

The beauty of the NOR systems is that these are self-adjusting. Within the rule base are "adjustment plays" like the OTR plays plus the "adjustment betting" such as upgrading from 112 to 123 to 234 quickly. NOR has been found to handle virtually all shoe types.

Face it - most players get killed with OTB4L type shoes where the modes often change from M2 to M3 and vice versa (especially if modes are changing rapidly on both runs and chops!). In these shoe types, the student player can exit asap at a small loss. Or the player can just pick one mode type and play thru where M3 plus 1 OTR can often recoup from severe OTB4L "bad" shoes.

My point is that I hope the net betting threads do not go off too severely on trying to microscopically optimize and reverse engineer from only a few shoes that have been backtested. Baccarat is a dynamic game, and volatility of the bankroll can easily waver anywhere from (-8) to (+8) in any given shoe.

Ellis already recently detailed the key critical success factors for high level baccarat playing (also often repeated by Kiddo):

1. Have sufficient bankroll and multiple buy-ins. And must be wiling to be able to afford to lose bankroll.

2. Have sufficient mental and emotional capital - 100% confidence in NOR or net bet approaches.

3. Have sufficient rest/relaxation in between playing sessions.l

4. Identify table biases - if any. More difficult nowadays given pre-shuffled boxed decks in midi and big bacc tables.

I am an advocate for ongoing systems research, backtests, etc. But - I believe the NOR systems have a high robust "survivability" factor. And these are much easier to teach, share, and debrief - amongst players.

I hope there is no offense to net bettors here in BTC. But it is important to find the most simple, robust, low-betting systems for successful baccarat playing. Aside from selective SAP plays, I believe NOR is well balanced and easy to learn and implement. NOR can make baccarat gaming fun, relaxing. Plus, often, 2 of the 3 NOR systems are robust enough to lead to profitable shoes - so the student player does not have to precisely choose only 1 correct NOR system.

Ellis - thank you for your ongoing contributions and ideas for SAP, NOR, net betting. All excellent. But please - do not forget to focus on "playability and enjoyability" for the sake of the baccarat games.

And - BTC members - do not forget - please have fun and play in a relaxed mind set, have adequate bankroll, and confidence in your ability to follow whichever systems you select. Let the shoe type determine your system - and lead you to profitability.

Thank you for letting me share my observations!

Regards,

Daytrader77459

[bo_da]

Wow ztomsk, that is a surprisingly good question! I sometimes do this to get the day started until I really get a handle on the lay of the land. But I stay in Mode 2. This keeps your bets lowest. That is how S40 was played when it won 40 shoes in a row. Use a +10 stop win. Then if all goes well, I often upgrade my betting to U1D2 and my stop win to +20. That can get a little hairy sometimes but it usually works at a table you already know is a good table. This keeps Mode guessing out of the picture altogether.

You mean if the mode changes keep staying in mode 2 but seperate the prog? how to do that? i think i miss lots of things here can you please re teach this stuff, at the casino where i play i'd rarely see bias mode it kept changing back and forth and i obvious know y it changes cause all the asian here they all play this way, 3 will follow 3 or 4 will follow 4 and so on casino knew that very clear, no bias mode here, how'd you won 20 shoes in row by playing how?

[Guest]

You mean if the mode changes keep staying in mode 2 but seperate the prog? how to do that? i think i miss lots of things here can you please re teach this stuff, at the casino where i play i'd rarely see bias mode it kept changing back and forth and i obvious know y it changes cause all the asian here they all play this way, 3 will follow 3 or 4 will follow 4 and so on casino knew that very clear, no bias mode here, how'd you won 20 shoes in row by playing how?

OK bo_da, somehow you are making this harder than it really is so lets take it one step at a time:

First we call this "modeless" method of playing S 40 "Basic S 40" because it is the way S 40 was originally designed and the way it won 40 shoes in a row.

Second, when would we play this basic way?

Answer, when we find no mode integrity - the mode keeps changing back and forth just as several of our Singapore players have reported with their preshuffled cards.

Basic S40, also called "prog within a prog", actually prefers forever changing modes and was offered especially for our Singapore players.

This ploy can be used with any of the three NOR systems but I'll explain it from the S40 point of view.

Normally, when we play S40 we always lose our 1,2 against a 3 in a row. Our next bet called for by Mode 2 is 3 OTR (on the run) right under the 3. Sure, we make this a 1 bet if the mode has not yet been established but then the bet called for is a 3 bet. We are essentially betting 3 units that the 3 will go to 4 because the last 3 went to 4.

BUT with preshuffled cards, the fact that the last 3 went to 4 may be completely meaningless. Therefore we don't bet 3, we only bet 1 OTR. Now if that 1 bet loses that means the 3 stayed 3 and didn't go to 4. We ignore that 1 bet loss and go right back to our normal S40 routine of betting a 1,2 on opposites. But when the next 3 in a row comes up, as it surely will, we make out OTR bet 2 to make up for the original lost 1 bet back there. And if the 2 loses our next OTR bet, when it comes up is 3 and so forth.

What we are actually betting is a 12345 prog that the shoe will eventually produce a 4 or more and 499 out of 500 shoes do. So it is a very safe prog that seldom gets past the 3 bet.

Now, when we win our OTR bet we stay OTR for one more bet exactly as we do in Mode 2. Voila, now you don't care if the Mode keeps changing. In fact you want it to.

One last thing: If you have been seeing lots of long straight runs simply stay on the run until you lose instead of getting off after 2 OTR bets. Now you hope the run goes to 15.

OK, if you read this a couple of times I'm sure you'll get it because it is very simple. You are just suffering from a little bit of language barrier.

BTW, when you lose your 1 bet OTR, your next bet is a 1 bet on opposites, not 2. You only bet 2 when you lose your regular 1 bet on opposites or when betting OTR after losing your 1 bet OTR back there. So the only time you would bet 3 is when you lose your 1 OTR and then later, your 2 OTR.

This is exactly how S40 won 40 shoes in a row at 5 different casinos. And that record has since been broken.

Do you get it now?

OH, one other last thing, When you play basic you are betting less so you may want to adjust your stop win goal accordingly. +8 is a pretty good shoe playing basic but you will see +10 too. So go by how well you do in the first column.

Edited June 14, 2012 by Guest

[Guest]

Hi, Ellis, BTC players,

I hope you can indulge me with my observations of this net betting research recently on BTC. I've been reading and researching the entire NB dialogue including the PvB, OvR, OvT. Plus the various start loops of 0, 00, 0L0. Plus the dialogue on handling sporadic 1's, and of course, the variations on the delayed or no bet hds and the proposed re-start bet triggers.

I must admit after all of the studying, I think it is important to highlight to new members and players - that the NOR approach is still one of the best balanced approach to winning baccarat. Within the NOR approach, Ellis had incorporated the various 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, 4+s, events into the system. He has elaborated in detail which shoe types match best to the NOR systems. And of course, the nemesis patterns for the NOR systems. In addition for new players, the NOR betting scheme is relatively modest - can be started with 111, or 112 - and then ramp up quickly to 123 or better if the shoe is "paying out" using the NOR systems. Finally, NOR also teaches the important concepts of locking in profits via the dozens, or hitting max highs 2-3x. And most often, losing shoes are only at (-8 units).

In reviewing the variations and questions related to the net betting systems, it reminds me of the Twister, Anti-Twister, U2hi, U3hi, etc. All are excellent methods, BUT - every system and betting scheme will LOSE to some nemesis patterns. To spend time optimizing, and sub-optimizing, on these variations may not prove to be profitable in the long run for the high performance baccarat player. When a few shoes lose, and the restart, or no bet, or bet progressions, or whatever, are altered in light of a few losing tough shoes, the "new" net betting systems/triggers will again fail to something else.

In addition to the inherent flaws of microscopic suboptimized "rules and betting schemes" based off a few tough shoes, there is another problem for BTC players in terms of complexity and "enjoyability" of playing baccarat at a high level. When one changes starts like 0 vs 00 vs 11 vs 0L0, or the bets 12 34 56 are altered - and delayed and no bet areas are included - these can often overwhelm the players and take the enjoyment out of the baccarat playing. Handling sporadic 1s, or excess 1s or long runs, etc. Well, the facts are that many shoes will have areas of heavy chops vs heavy streaks vs concentrated areas of 2s and 3s. That is the nature of random chaos of events. Especially given the high numbers of casinos now using preshuffled boxed 8 decks in midi bacc tables and big bacc tables.

The beauty of the NOR systems is that these are self-adjusting. Within the rule base are "adjustment plays" like the OTR plays plus the "adjustment betting" such as upgrading from 112 to 123 to 234 quickly. NOR has been found to handle virtually all shoe types.

Face it - most players get killed with OTB4L type shoes where the modes often change from M2 to M3 and vice versa (especially if modes are changing rapidly on both runs and chops!). In these shoe types, the student player can exit asap at a small loss. Or the player can just pick one mode type and play thru where M3 plus 1 OTR can often recoup from severe OTB4L "bad" shoes.

My point is that I hope the net betting threads do not go off too severely on trying to microscopically optimize and reverse engineer from only a few shoes that have been backtested. Baccarat is a dynamic game, and volatility of the bankroll can easily waver anywhere from (-8) to (+8) in any given shoe.

Ellis already recently detailed the key critical success factors for high level baccarat playing (also often repeated by Kiddo):

1. Have sufficient bankroll and multiple buy-ins. And must be wiling to be able to afford to lose bankroll.

2. Have sufficient mental and emotional capital - 100% confidence in NOR or net bet approaches.

3. Have sufficient rest/relaxation in between playing sessions.l

4. Identify table biases - if any. More difficult nowadays given pre-shuffled boxed decks in midi and big bacc tables.

I am an advocate for ongoing systems research, backtests, etc. But - I believe the NOR systems have a high robust "survivability" factor. And these are much easier to teach, share, and debrief - amongst players.

I hope there is no offense to net bettors here in BTC. But it is important to find the most simple, robust, low-betting systems for successful baccarat playing. Aside from selective SAP plays, I believe NOR is well balanced and easy to learn and implement. NOR can make baccarat gaming fun, relaxing. Plus, often, 2 of the 3 NOR systems are robust enough to lead to profitable shoes - so the student player does not have to precisely choose only 1 correct NOR system.

Ellis - thank you for your ongoing contributions and ideas for SAP, NOR, net betting. All excellent. But please - do not forget to focus on "playability and enjoyability" for the sake of the baccarat games.

And - BTC members - do not forget - please have fun and play in a relaxed mind set, have adequate bankroll, and confidence in your ability to follow whichever systems you select. Let the shoe type determine your system - and lead you to profitability.

Thank you for letting me share my observations!

Regards,

Daytrader77459

An excellent post Daytrader and excellent points.

I agree with you that NOR is the best way this game can be played especially against standard cards.

When we include Basic NOR, as just described, it is perhaps the best way to play even preshuffled cards if we are seeing any bias integrity at all.

I always look at players with a raised eyebrow who report "my casino has no dependable biases at any table". I have often gone to these same casinos and beat the hell out of them by, you guessed it, playing obvious biases.

It has always turned out that their real problem has been lack of adequate table selection or often none at all. Biases are easy to see and easy to find IF you actually go to the trouble of finding them.

But half the time I locate these players in the casino and ask "Why are you playing this table?" "Because the seat was open" or "because my friend is playing this table".

What was that idiot's name at BF? He claimed that there is no such thing as biases and came to Vegas from Canada to watch us play. The first table we got to had a strong chop bias. Our whole group not only beat this table, we annihilated it winning 80% of the hands and paying for our whole trip in one partial shoe. Garnabby or whatever rushed home to report that we had cheated. He had introduced himself to 15 of our members who were either watching the game or playing with us. Ha, a real class act.

But, while I always take this no bias stuff with a major grain of salt, lets say that our Singapore players are at least partially right - That Singapore has figured out some whole new way of shuffling cards that the rest of the world has yet to discover even though they have been shuffling cards a whole lot longer than Singapore. Fine, that is what NB is for. Now if you get 3s and 4s and 5s and 6s and Sinatra 15s where they shouldn't be you don't care a hoot because you are always on them. Come what may.

Sure you need to learn and practice a little more but nobody ever said beating casinos is easy. No honest person that is.

But you are absolutely right! Remembering all this stuff can be a chore especially for our members who aren't full timers. I've been doing this full time for 30 years so it is relatively easy for me.

But case in point: With PvB I start with the 12 34 56, then I go to the 1234 and some have already forgotten how to play the 12 34 56 and how to play sporadic 1's even though it is all on page 1 of PvB. I dread to think how many have totally forgotten how to play OvR or when to play which.

One thing is for sure: This is a lifelong endeavor. Lots of job security.

Keith keeps calling me: "Are you finished teaching Baccarat yet?"

You gotta be kidding me!

[ECD]

Hi, Ellis, BTC players,

I hope you can indulge me with my observations of this net betting research recently on BTC. I've been reading and researching the entire NB dialogue including the PvB, OvR, OvT. Plus the various start loops of 0, 00, 0L0. Plus the dialogue on handling sporadic 1's, and of course, the variations on the delayed or no bet hds and the proposed re-start bet triggers.

I must admit after all of the studying, I think it is important to highlight to new members and players - that the NOR approach is still one of the best balanced approach to winning baccarat. Within the NOR approach, Ellis had incorporated the various 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, 4+s, events into the system. He has elaborated in detail which shoe types match best to the NOR systems. And of course, the nemesis patterns for the NOR systems. In addition for new players, the NOR betting scheme is relatively modest - can be started with 111, or 112 - and then ramp up quickly to 123 or better if the shoe is "paying out" using the NOR systems. Finally, NOR also teaches the important concepts of locking in profits via the dozens, or hitting max highs 2-3x. And most often, losing shoes are only at (-8 units).

In reviewing the variations and questions related to the net betting systems, it reminds me of the Twister, Anti-Twister, U2hi, U3hi, etc. All are excellent methods, BUT - every system and betting scheme will LOSE to some nemesis patterns. To spend time optimizing, and sub-optimizing, on these variations may not prove to be profitable in the long run for the high performance baccarat player. When a few shoes lose, and the restart, or no bet, or bet progressions, or whatever, are altered in light of a few losing tough shoes, the "new" net betting systems/triggers will again fail to something else.

In addition to the inherent flaws of microscopic suboptimized "rules and betting schemes" based off a few tough shoes, there is another problem for BTC players in terms of complexity and "enjoyability" of playing baccarat at a high level. When one changes starts like 0 vs 00 vs 11 vs 0L0, or the bets 12 34 56 are altered - and delayed and no bet areas are included - these can often overwhelm the players and take the enjoyment out of the baccarat playing. Handling sporadic 1s, or excess 1s or long runs, etc. Well, the facts are that many shoes will have areas of heavy chops vs heavy streaks vs concentrated areas of 2s and 3s. That is the nature of random chaos of events. Especially given the high numbers of casinos now using preshuffled boxed 8 decks in midi bacc tables and big bacc tables.

The beauty of the NOR systems is that these are self-adjusting. Within the rule base are "adjustment plays" like the OTR plays plus the "adjustment betting" such as upgrading from 112 to 123 to 234 quickly. NOR has been found to handle virtually all shoe types.

Face it - most players get killed with OTB4L type shoes where the modes often change from M2 to M3 and vice versa (especially if modes are changing rapidly on both runs and chops!). In these shoe types, the student player can exit asap at a small loss. Or the player can just pick one mode type and play thru where M3 plus 1 OTR can often recoup from severe OTB4L "bad" shoes.

My point is that I hope the net betting threads do not go off too severely on trying to microscopically optimize and reverse engineer from only a few shoes that have been backtested. Baccarat is a dynamic game, and volatility of the bankroll can easily waver anywhere from (-8) to (+8) in any given shoe.

Ellis already recently detailed the key critical success factors for high level baccarat playing (also often repeated by Kiddo):

1. Have sufficient bankroll and multiple buy-ins. And must be wiling to be able to afford to lose bankroll.

2. Have sufficient mental and emotional capital - 100% confidence in NOR or net bet approaches.

3. Have sufficient rest/relaxation in between playing sessions.l

4. Identify table biases - if any. More difficult nowadays given pre-shuffled boxed decks in midi and big bacc tables.

I am an advocate for ongoing systems research, backtests, etc. But - I believe the NOR systems have a high robust "survivability" factor. And these are much easier to teach, share, and debrief - amongst players.

I hope there is no offense to net bettors here in BTC. But it is important to find the most simple, robust, low-betting systems for successful baccarat playing. Aside from selective SAP plays, I believe NOR is well balanced and easy to learn and implement. NOR can make baccarat gaming fun, relaxing. Plus, often, 2 of the 3 NOR systems are robust enough to lead to profitable shoes - so the student player does not have to precisely choose only 1 correct NOR system.

Ellis - thank you for your ongoing contributions and ideas for SAP, NOR, net betting. All excellent. But please - do not forget to focus on "playability and enjoyability" for the sake of the baccarat games.

And - BTC members - do not forget - please have fun and play in a relaxed mind set, have adequate bankroll, and confidence in your ability to follow whichever systems you select. Let the shoe type determine your system - and lead you to profitability.

Thank you for letting me share my observations!

Regards,

Daytrader77459

Hi Daytrader,

Thank you for this excellent post. One of the things I really like about BTC is the constant desire to explore and find new and better tools for the serious professional. I have also followed all the net betting posts, but have yet to see any positive advantage to NOR. Virtually every situation addresses by a "new" tweak to the net betting concept is "automaticaly" handled by NOR through the application of the rules, betting progressions and table selection. I am hopeful there will be a renewed interest in improving NOR on this board -- something that has been missing with all the focus on net betting.

Regards,

Way2fast

[MVSeahog]

Basic S40, also called "prog within a prog", actually prefers forever changing modes and was offered especially for our Singapore players.

This ploy can be used with any of the three NOR systems but I'll explain it from the S40 point of view.

Normally, when we play S40 we always lose our 1,2 against a 3 in a row. Our next bet called for by Mode 2 is 3 OTR (on the run) right under the 3. Sure, we make this a 1 bet if the mode has not yet been established but then the bet called for is a 3 bet. We are essentially betting 3 units that the 3 will go to 4 because the last 3 went to 4.

BUT with preshuffled cards, the fact that the last 3 went to 4 may be completely meaningless. Therefore we don't bet 3, we only bet 1 OTR. Now if that 1 bet loses that means the 3 stayed 3 and didn't go to 4. We ignore that 1 bet loss and go right back to our normal S40 routine of betting a 1,2 on opposites. But when the next 3 in a row comes up, as it surely will, we make out OTR bet 2 to make up for the original lost 1 bet back there. And if the 2 loses our next OTR bet, when it comes up is 3 and so forth.

What we are actually betting is a 12345 prog that the shoe will eventually produce a 4 or more and 499 out of 500 shoes do. So it is a very safe prog that seldom gets past the 3 bet.

Now, when we win our OTR bet we stay OTR for one more bet exactly as we do in Mode 2. Voila, now you don't care if the Mode keeps changing. In fact you want it to.

One last thing: If you have been seeing lots of long straight runs simply stay on the run until you lose instead of getting off after 2 OTR bets. Now you hope the run goes to 15.

Ellis,

That right there is worth the price of admission.

And the method of play is sound as well!

MVS

[kachatz1]

Best strategy for "TEAM" play?

In the context of the above...I have a person willing and able ( BR/MM skills) to play as a team. I seem to remember a play method you expounded upon about 6 months ago...had to do with playing same table during the afternoon, then having dinner together and altering your play style for even greater ( better) results...tried to find it, could not.

He is Asian, I am not.

He is big units, I am not ( but easy to convert)

He is R.A.W. to try this. Both live in the USA, diff cities.

Both sufficient BR to make this worthwhile.

Any help is appreciated...you can PM me as well.

[Guest]

kachatz1 I think you are referring to our first Vegas seminar and group play event wherein I did the table selection before the group opening dinner and then we played the selected table after dinner. While very successful, that was group play, not team play.

In spite of the fact that there is a team play Bac method on the internet someone pointed out to me, the nature of Bac does not lend itself to team play like BJ does.

In BJ, simply put, sacrifice min bet team members can be used to rid the shoe of dealer favorable low cards leaving the first base big player to exploit a manufactured situation.

Using this method, designed by me, our 8 6 man teams each won every shoe we played at Nassau, Bahamas at both casinos for two days each. Our play not only completely paid for a luxurious week vacation on the beach but we all brought home money to boot.

But I see no way a team can exploit a Bac game no matter how they arrange it. There is nothing a team can do that you can't do yourself with net betting. You don't need a team to net bet.

No matter how they arrange it, in the end, a team has the excess of their bet bet on P or B, exactly like an individual player. There is no advantage to team play in Bac. But the advantage in BJ is huge.

Edited June 15, 2012 by Guest

[Guest]

Ellis,

That right there is worth the price of admission.

And the method of play is sound as well!

MVS

Thanks MVS and YOU would know. This is not the first time I've mentioned this basic way of playing NOR but I figure if I keep saying it, it will eventually sink in.

[Guest]

Hi Daytrader,

Thank you for this excellent post. One of the things I really like about BTC is the constant desire to explore and find new and better tools for the serious professional. I have also followed all the net betting posts, but have yet to see any positive advantage to NOR. Virtually every situation addresses by a "new" tweak to the net betting concept is "automaticaly" handled by NOR through the application of the rules, betting progressions and table selection. I am hopeful there will be a renewed interest in improving NOR on this board -- something that has been missing with all the focus on net betting.

Regards,

Way2fast

Right Way2fast, aside from the fact that with Net Betting, your bets are usually considerably lower you are still challenged by the fact that you STILL must play the right system for the shoe at hand just like you must with NOR.

Sure, net betting might have some advantage over OTB4L in random cards but the operative word here is "might". In 30 years of play I have yet to see a situation where every Bac table in a casino has truly random cards. There is always a biased game somewhere even if not at most tables.

Think about it! Even with preshuffled cards, this is not some magicable word. Still somebody, somewhere or some machine had the job of shuffling the cards. What exactly can they do that can't be done right at the table??? Why are these cards suddenly random when dealer attempts to randomize cards have failed for 50 years.

Or is it all in the eyes of the beholder??? Sure, there are instances of randomness but those are easily avoidable.

The cards don't know what country they are in. Wherever you are, random is random and biased is biased. You are never going to win every hand or even every shoe no matter where you are.

"But Ellis, my cards are different!" Guess how many times I've heard that in 30 years. Never give yourself an excuse to lose - or you surely will.

Edited June 15, 2012 by Guest

[ztomsk]

First we call this "modeless" method of playing S 40 "Basic S 40" because it is the way S 40 was originally designed and the way it won 40 shoes in a row.

Second, when would we play this basic way?

Answer, when we find no mode integrity - the mode keeps changing back and forth just as several of our Singapore players have reported with their preshuffled cards.

Basic S40, also called "prog within a prog", actually prefers forever changing modes and was offered especially for our Singapore players.

This ploy can be used with any of the three NOR systems but I'll explain it from the S40 point of view.

Normally, when we play S40 we always lose our 1,2 against a 3 in a row. Our next bet called for by Mode 2 is 3 OTR (on the run) right under the 3. Sure, we make this a 1 bet if the mode has not yet been established but then the bet called for is a 3 bet. We are essentially betting 3 units that the 3 will go to 4 because the last 3 went to 4.

BUT with preshuffled cards, the fact that the last 3 went to 4 may be completely meaningless. Therefore we don't bet 3, we only bet 1 OTR. Now if that 1 bet loses that means the 3 stayed 3 and didn't go to 4. We ignore that 1 bet loss and go right back to our normal S40 routine of betting a 1,2 on opposites. But when the next 3 in a row comes up, as it surely will, we make out OTR bet 2 to make up for the original lost 1 bet back there. And if the 2 loses our next OTR bet, when it comes up is 3 and so forth.

What we are actually betting is a 12345 prog that the shoe will eventually produce a 4 or more and 499 out of 500 shoes do. So it is a very safe prog that seldom gets past the 3 bet.

Now, when we win our OTR bet we stay OTR for one more bet exactly as we do in Mode 2. Voila, now you don't care if the Mode keeps changing. In fact you want it to.

One last thing: If you have been seeing lots of long straight runs simply stay on the run until you lose instead of getting off after 2 OTR bets. Now you hope the run goes to 15.

OK, if you read this a couple of times I'm sure you'll get it because it is very simple. You are just suffering from a little bit of language barrier.

BTW, when you lose your 1 bet OTR, your next bet is a 1 bet on opposites, not 2. You only bet 2 when you lose your regular 1 bet on opposites or when betting OTR after losing your 1 bet OTR back there. So the only time you would bet 3 is when you lose your 1 OTR and then later, your 2 OTR.

Is there ever a reason to simply bet 1,2 against a 3 in a row and thats it? And just never make a 3 bet - wait until its time to bet opposites again. Since once you get to a 3 bet with your prog within a prog it's breaking even anyway. Do you think you can win units in the long run this way? I don't know, just tinking out loud.

[Guest]

Is there ever a reason to simply bet 1,2 against a 3 in a row and thats it? And just never make a 3 bet - wait until its time to bet opposites again. Since once you get to a 3 bet with your prog within a prog it's breaking even anyway. Do you think you can win units in the long run this way? I don't know, just tinking out loud.

Yes, absolutely and I have played that way many times. This is a very reasonable way to play when you are seeing both 1's and 2s above normal which is very common. You might see an entire first column with no 3 or mores - very common. By then you are probably already out of the game with your +10. In the event of a run, simply wait for it to end.

But could you play every shoe this way? No! Just super chop. What if a shoe started with a 343? Not good!

[PurpleInk]

Is there ever a reason to simply bet 1,2 against a 3 in a row and thats it? And just never make a 3 bet - wait until its time to bet opposites again. Since once you get to a 3 bet with your prog within a prog it's breaking even anyway. Do you think you can win units in the long run this way? I don't know, just tinking out loud.

Z,

Interesting question.

Let me first say that there is nothing wrong with breaking even, this thought took me a while to getting used to. If you have matched the correct system with your shoe, the progression will bring you profits. Just give the progression some patience.

In your example you are down 3 units as you've lost your 1 and 2 unit bet. I'd rather take my chances on breaking even with a single 3 unit bet than having to win three 1 unit bets at a minimum or six bets composed of 1,2 where you win on the 2 to get my 3 units back.

[vinfong318]

Baccarat is not an easy game although it seems easy 50:50 chance of winning.

We learn NOR because we don't want to depend on luck to help us win.

I start out playing each shoe with PVB 123456 along the way I use 112 prog. Especially at the beginning if i see streak with a win of 6 units I will quit.

If the shoe shows no sign of bias I will continue betting 1 unit.

Until there are bias say 2 and 3 mc I will increase my chip amount for the rest of the shoe.

Say I was betting 1 chip =50 dollar

Until I see bias I would bet 1 chip = 100 , after covering previous losses I would take win at 3 units (300)

Reminder : your cut loss point fixed at 8 units either amount.

Don't be greedy.... Preserve your bankroll take win more often .

Take a break every shoe and play agin when I feel the most relax..

Remember if you start to lose quit immediately ..... Haha when 9 beat your player 8 or you can't even beat a 0 .

Something telling you it's not the time.

[Guest]

That's a pretty good way to look at it vinfong especially if you are playing a tough preshuffle casino. Suppose, through play, you increase your skill level to the point you can make just 3 units but you can do that most every time. Then life just becomes a question of unit size doesn't it. The cards don't know the color of your chips.

[vinfong318]

You are Right Ellis..... Now winning is not a problem..... I am winning more than I lose now...Thanks to NOR and Net betting.