# Chubby Checker...perhaps it was Ellis, after all

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I must admit I am not much of a dancer(got no rhythm). So Since I never

saw any "mathematical" advantage to the twist, I havnt yet cut a rug. I see it as a side

bet to keep occupied, like maybe betting on the first hand of every shoe

played. Each bet is 50/50 and will resolve to a one bet if using u1d1 WITH a large enough bankroll.

You can also play it using the last hand of any shoe. Or the second hand to the 3rd power.

You see, I am probably the only person on this forum who was traine to beat the game

using a different formula. However it is not easy and it involves flat betting. I have posted my "observations" of

the game many times. It seems noone has picked up on them.

The person who trained me had some advice: When you set out to make up a sytem,

which by the wAy, no mechanical system will beat this game, you start with a problem then solve it, then rest and look for collateral problems

, then solve them, Rinse and Repeat until you have the best system you cane get.

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Mr. Davis (and any/all math guys),

If the baccarat math of long term play is irrrrrrrr-refutable, And 50 percent of

all results are ones, etc. etc. ... Is there any mathematical proof

that thise percentages can be skewed long term by shuffle manipulation at lets say

the same casino?

For instance, if casino A is shuffling a certain way, or at least always manipulating their shuffles, AND I only play every game at casino A, because maybe I like their buffet the best or I am stalking a certain cocktail waitress or something, would then the long rerm math of

1's,2's,3's etc be skewed for me?

This is actually a serious question that I would like the answer to please.

I am working on something that requires the above answer. (Sort of a

horse WITH a name)(name yet to be decided)

Thank youse all.

Yes kramden, we have irrefutable proof of many kinds that shuffles whether by hand or by machine are, in fact, manipulated.

Mathematicians say that Baccarat can't be beat because you can't beat random cards. True, you can't.

But the same math says that Basic Strategy beats random cards in BJ to the tune of 6%. But BS players lose miserably in BJ proving far beyond all doubt that the cards are NOT random. The same shuffles and the same machines are used in both Bac and BJ.

See, the mathematicians as well as the casinos can't have their cake and eat it too.

Ten 10s in a row is very common in BJ, particularly 8 deck. We see it every day even though the mathematical odds against it are so high we can consider it impossible - yet we see it every day and nobody in the game so much as raises an eyebrow. Dumb bastards. It is exactly the same as if the casino short decked the game to the tune of ten 10s. Such a game is no longer beatable.

Look, use your head. The odds of 10 banks are better than 50/50 for each Bank - yet we very seldom see it.

The odds of 10 tens is only 4/13 for each ten. We should NEVER see it but we do in fact see it every day. It is extremely common.

Do you think it is coincidental that these impossible things we keep seeing highly favor the casino?

Then there was our own 10,000 casino shoe test on basic OTB4L - U1D1. It achieved a 34% PA. Not the 0.5% PA card counters strive to achieve but 34 freaking %. Any Mathematician worth his salt will tell you that is completely impossible with random cards. Random cards achieve a 0% PA + or - a tenth of a % for standard deviation.

So what does that prove beyond all doubt???

That casino card preps SRTONGLY favor OTB4L. AND that

Preshuffled cards strongly favor OTB4L.

Why would casinos want to manipulate the shuffles that way???

The answer is simple. Because the casino always wins an OTB4L game. Nobody, save us, knows how to play OTB4L shoes.

Proof? Simply look at the casino Bac profits. They are many times commission. How is that possible in a 50/50 game + commission?

Answer: It ISN'T possible in random cards. It is ONLY possible in manipulated cards.

I could keep going for 50 more pages if you like. But I think by now you are catching my drift.

Just one more thing. Dealers themselves have told us that modern shuffle machines can put the cards back into boxed card order.

THINK about that. That means that shuffle machines can put the cards in any order the casino chooses. And they know they always win with OTB4L order. Casinos aren't stupid you know. They are in existence for one reason only - to make money. And they've got Government on their side. They are the biggest cash windfall for governments there is except maybe the legalization of weed.

But consider this: If casinos didn't cheat we couldn't beat them.

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Now, there are no such things as stupid questions. And, you can learn something from

A.N.y.T.H.I.NG..

This forum is the icing on the cake. At least for me. It is sadly true that

most people ate looking for a perfect mechanical system to win.

It does not exist.

But i you read between the lines and keep looking for annomalies

in "the system"(that is "the game"),

you may find the building blocks for something that is pretty damn

close to what you need.

Like K says, its all here. And if you disagree, then ask the auestions

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So, the point of my post. A quick explanation...

It has been spoken here that flat bettig cannot win long term. The math

backs it up.

So far, I do not find that to be true.

However, my latest problem that I must solve for my play is the negative

effects flat betting has on my body. Mental ( as you can all probably tell

I look around at People at the tables and see what my future might look like.

The game is slow. Mentally and physically draining. Hour after hour as life is passing bye. As a flat bettor I must sit and yoyo for hours on end sometimes.

This is no good for me. So its my new motivation to find a solution to.

Now, a potential runaway progression is a non starter for me.

What is left?? "Middling Maybe"?

Now the math of the game says its impossible to beat.

I believe that is the sad fact of reality!!!

Again Reality!!!

Sorry, to say it. Reality!!!

So you must find another application.

The Basis of NOR is correct!!!

Can it be expanded on. Well we are damn well trying.

We must look behind evey tree and under every rock.

More to come. possibly. But you must listen.

I am in it for the money! I hate to play. hate to wast time in a dungeon Of a

casino. Where people are so vile that they are dieing of COPD but they

roll their oxygen tanks with them on the second of the month to lose

their social security checks.

Sorry for my thoughts. I must be in a mood. Stock market is at another

high and I need to lighten up my positions.

Love you all!! Peace.

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So, the point of my post. A quick explanation...

It has been spoken here that flat bettig cannot win long term. The math

backs it up.

So far, I do not find that to be true.

However, my latest problem that I must solve for my play is the negative

effects flat betting has on my body. Mental ( as you can all probably tell

I look around at People at the tables and see what my future might look like.

The game is slow. Mentally and physically draining. Hour after hour as life is passing bye. As a flat bettor I must sit and yoyo for hours on end sometimes.

This is no good for me. So its my new motivation to find a solution to.

Now, a potential runaway progression is a non starter for me.

What is left?? "Middling Maybe"?

Now the math of the game says its impossible to beat.

I believe that is the sad fact of reality!!!

Again Reality!!!

Sorry, to say it. Reality!!!

So you must find another application.

The Basis of NOR is correct!!!

Can it be expanded on. Well we are damn well trying.

We must look behind evey tree and under every rock.

More to come. possibly. But you must listen.

I am in it for the money! I hate to play. hate to wast time in a dungeon Of a

casino. Where people are so vile that they are dieing of COPD but they

roll their oxygen tanks with them on the second of the month to lose

their social security checks.

Sorry for my thoughts. I must be in a mood. Stock market is at another

high and I need to lighten up my positions.

Love you all!! Peace.

Correct Kramden - flat betting can only win if you're hitting above a 50% win rate. The neg prog's (1234 etc.) are designed to offset that so that you need only achieve a 33% hit rate (1 out of 3) to stay even. Any better than that and you're in the black.

I've tried flat betting in the past and yes, it's safer, but boy does it take a LONG time to get "out of the gate".

How about a middle ground prog of 1,2 (2 hi) like Ellis explained on another thread (Simplified 4D I think).

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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It also reaffirms my thought process on this issue I am refining.

Knowing that the shuffles facilitate ot4bl AND that that also means that they

must then facilitate very few "long runs"... it would then be plausible that they

have changed the "long term" math of the game also.

I then conclude that while playing it could be noted i the back of

my head that the probability of a switch to the other side of p or b,

increase as the run of p or b in creases. It would appear that this happens

far more than the 50/50 probability of the next hand would have you believe.

Now, how to apply this to my "system"??

More questions to follow, as I need to clear up a few more things.

Thanks!!

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Hey Glenn,

Yes I have applied Norm's 1-2 loop to the best of my ability and it CAN hold its own. But it is still

lacking something.

I have (believe what you will) seemingly beaten the game Flat Betting.

But not without its costs. Costs that are becoming too hard to accept.

It comes down to the player. They player must beat this game with his own

talents. Just like with anything else in life, very few have the talents

to succed at anything they choose. But everyone has a talent for something.

So what is the application then?

Thats the question.

Math helps to figure it out. So does keen observation.

Did anyone notice the posts where Kevin and I both commented

on the percieved "strength" of concurrent hands?

Gamblers gamble. Players play, but only at the top of their game when

hey have it confidently figured out. And they always look for weaknesses

in the other team. They never stop.

Most people blindly trust their money to "financial advisors".

If these peoe knew what thet were doing they wouldnt be doing it fo your fees.

But then again, most people dont have the talent to figure

out the game or how its played.

hope this is a pep talk to those of you who have the talent.

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Hey Glenn,

Yes I have applied Norm's 1-2 loop to the best of my ability and it CAN hold its own. But it is still

lacking something.

I have (believe what you will) seemingly beaten the game Flat Betting.

But not without its costs. Costs that are becoming too hard to accept.

It comes down to the player. They player must beat this game with his own

talents. Just like with anything else in life, very few have the talents

to succed at anything they choose. But everyone has a talent for something.

So what is the application then?

Thats the question.

Math helps to figure it out. So does keen observation.

Did anyone notice the posts where Kevin and I both commented

on the percieved "strength" of concurrent hands?

Gamblers gamble. Players play, but only at the top of their game when

hey have it confidently figured out. And they always look for weaknesses

in the other team. They never stop.

Most people blindly trust their money to "financial advisors".

If these peoe knew what thet were doing they wouldnt be doing it fo your fees.

But then again, most people dont have the talent to figure

out the game or how its played.

hope this is a pep talk to those of you who have the talent.

Oh, I've definitely won flat betting in the past. Some days were fairly easy if I caught the trend early on, but most took a long, long time (6+ hrs) to get anywhere and I always felt like I was just "treading water" most of the time.

There has to be a better way...

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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So onward...

Since AGAIN my whole post was erased...

short and sweet...

Mr Davis, if you could only pick one, one size fits all, progression

to use over and over again no matter what...taking into account

all risks versus rewards... what would it be??

I would assume, from this and the blackjack forum it would be the

1-2-3 ??

I know, I know that all progressions will resolve if played out but I

need to be realsitic. And we are talking about altered mathematical

outcomes in the short or long run anyway.

Also llease discuss the differences between 1-2-3 and 1-2-4 as far as

mathematical risks and rewards.

What are the probabilities of a blow out in how many tries vs the profits mathematically

speaking.

And would not the extra one unit profit of all wins on the 1-2-4 give us

any better advantage while still not violating our stop loss.

Taking into account versus not taking into account our "superior"

bet selection.

Now I am not trying to reinvent the wheels of NOR. Rather just

looking to cover some potential potholes of my own style.

Thank you.

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• 2 months later...

First, sorry but i just got a burst of excitement that I just had to post.

Such a great thread I thought I would raise it TTT.

I was lying in bed the other night when a Completely new idea hit me

like a ton of bricks...

It all revolved around yet another application of the info i this thread and the two

connected threads from Kat. Yep, it has to do with the "events" or the "iar's".

I just had to go back and chect a few things in this dead thread. Give it sort of a "dead cat bounce".

The key to winning this game in my experience, not opinion is in the events. And tou

may have guessed it, this concept includes "the runs".

just food for thought for those of you who always try to use your brains to better

your bac game and to avoid senility.

Keep pressing on men...

Its the events, jerry...

Good luck all.

Thanks again Kevin!

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First, sorry but i just got a burst of excitement that I just had to post.

Such a great thread I thought I would raise it TTT.

I was lying in bed the other night when a Completely new idea hit me

like a ton of bricks...

It all revolved around yet another application of the info i this thread and the two

connected threads from Kat. Yep, it has to do with the "events" or the "iar's".

I just had to go back and chect a few things in this dead thread. Give it sort of a "dead cat bounce".

The key to winning this game in my experience, not opinion is in the events. And tou

may have guessed it, this concept includes "the runs".

just food for thought for those of you who always try to use your brains to better

your bac game and to avoid senility.

Keep pressing on men...

Its the events, jerry...

Good luck all.

Thanks again Kevin!

It's not a new idea. If you doubt me just ask Ellis.

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In the spirit of this thread I have a ? ...

How do the numbers for the "events" work in a game like blackjack?

Just going on wins and losses, lets say, what would the stats be for 1 win in a row, 2 wins iar, three, etc...??

The same for the losses in BJ, or any other events that could be tracked?

Also lets assume we play perfect basic strategy , and also we play perfect NBJ.

Two different comparisons, but the point is that the odds of winning

any hand in BJ are less than the almost 50/50 odds of a bac hand.

So is it possible to figure out the math of ones twos threes ... iar??

Again just going on wins and losses. Or another way to look at it is if you were able to bet

on the player or the dealer in BJ, what would the "iar's" look like?

I am a member of the BJ forum also, but gave up the game a while back. However, it is a quicker, and less frustrating game so I wish to

spend some time applying some theories to it.

Thanks again , and I hope this question is given serious consideration as it could potentially change your

life. As its application in BAC has changed mine.

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In the spirit of this thread I have a ? ...

How do the numbers for the "events" work in a game like blackjack?

Just going on wins and losses, lets say, what would the stats be for 1 win in a row, 2 wins iar, three, etc...??

The same for the losses in BJ, or any other events that could be tracked?

Also lets assume we play perfect basic strategy , and also we play perfect NBJ.

Two different comparisons, but the point is that the odds of winning

any hand in BJ are less than the almost 50/50 odds of a bac hand.

So is it possible to figure out the math of ones twos threes ... iar??

Again just going on wins and losses. Or another way to look at it is if you were able to bet

on the player or the dealer in BJ, what would the "iar's" look like?

I am a member of the BJ forum also, but gave up the game a while back. However, it is a quicker, and less frustrating game so I wish to

spend some time applying some theories to it.

Thanks again , and I hope this question is given serious consideration as it could potentially change your

life. As its application in BAC has changed mine.

Well since I'm about the best BJ player in the world - The most consistent winner for the longest length of time, perhaps I could be of assistance.

First: Perfect Basic Strategy has a hands won rate of 43%. Nobody in BJ argues that fact. You can't possibly make up that huge deficit with your BJs or DDs. Therefore it could be correcty said that "perfect BS loses perfectly". You are better off to hit when lows are running and stand when highs are running or even better yet: If the last card dealt before your hit decision would have helped your hand, hit. If not, stand.

Only about 10% of overall BJ games are playable. The secret is to know how to identify and stick to that 10%. High counts do not work FOR you like the card counting gurus say (who never actually play BTW), they work decidedly against you. The very best are tables where the Hi Lo count goes nowhere. This is where BS attains its highest hit rate - often even above 50%. A third base NBJ player at such a random table betting a 3 bet progression virtually can't lose. THAT is how I got my win consistancy - not a single losing day playing full time for three years. Nobody will ever touch that record.

Forget wins in a row. That doesn't occur in BJ and is not the objective. The objective is to win every other hand WLWLWL. Then bet accordingly - a 1 4 6 progression. You only win half the hands, maybe even slightly less but you KILL the game. See that?

BTW, I also hold the First Base record. \$10,000 in less than a half hour W/O betting more than \$200. Nobody will ever come close to that record either - except me. I did it twice just for good measure.

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Well since I'm about the best BJ player in the world - The most consistent winner for the longest length of time, perhaps I could be of assistance.

First: Perfect Basic Strategy has a hands won rate of 43%. Nobody in BJ argues that fact. You can't possibly make up that huge deficit with your BJs or DDs. Therefore it could be correcty said that "perfect BS loses perfectly". You are better off to hit when lows are running and stand when highs are running or even better yet: If the last card dealt before your hit decision would have helped your hand, hit. If not, stand.

Only about 10% of overall BJ games are playable. The secret is to know how to identify and stick to that 10%. High counts do not work FOR you like the card counting gurus say (who never actually play BTW), they work decidedly against you. The very best are tables where the Hi Lo count goes nowhere. This is where BS attains its highest hit rate - often even above 50%. A third base NBJ player at such a random table betting a 3 bet progression virtually can't lose. THAT is how I got my win consistancy - not a single losing day playing full time for three years. Nobody will ever touch that record.

Forget wins in a row. That doesn't occur in BJ and is not the objective. The objective is to win every other hand WLWLWL. Then bet accordingly - a 1 4 6 progression. You only win half the hands, maybe even slightly less but you KILL the game. See that?

BTW, I also hold the First Base record. \$10,000 in less than a half hour W/O betting more than \$200. Nobody will ever come close to that record either - except me. I did it twice just for good measure.

So then I will believe that there is no mathematical way to figure out

the probabilities of dealer vs player wins and losses iar? I believe that is what you are saying.

The application is not the question as I have my own. Just the ones, twos , threes, etc in a row.

But it would seem that there is no way to figure that out.?

Just trying to turn another negative expectaion game into a positive one.

Thank you!!

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