Possible simplification for 4D...

[Guest]

The main goal should be to get to +5 as quickly as possible before any of the counts get above 5 or so. If this version of 4D is to survive it will need a definitive solution as to how to proceed when counts run high.

You can't play Baccarat just betting against all runs. That won't work.

So OK, you are only trying to get to +5 so we don't need a lot of 3 bets.

You lose your primary prog of 1,2 against a run.

You start your secondary prog of 12358 at 1.

So after losing your 1,2 you go back to a 1 bet.

If the OR count is - you bet your 1 ON the run.

If the OR count is + you bet your 1 AGAINST the run.

If you lose that secondary prog 1 bet, next time you lose a primary 1,2 your secondary prog is at 2. (prog within a prog)

Lets say you win your 1 OTR. We achieved our goal. We got 1 unit back of the 2 we lost. Fine. Wait for the run to end.

Lets say you win your 1 ATR. Again you achieved your goal. The run ended so Continue with the primary prog of 1,2

Lets say you lose your 1 ATR. Again wait for the run to end. But the next run your secondary prog is at 2.

Am I making any sense?

[uneek]

Ellis,

I've been putting the rules that you posted per post #19 and I can say that this might be the best concrete rules up to date. Are we still implementing a -8 as a stop loss? The stop win should for sure be a +5 capture at +4 but probing for more definitely helps.

[Quizzical1]

You can't play Baccarat just betting against all runs. That won't work.

So OK, you are only trying to get to +5 so we don't need a lot of 3 bets.

You lose your primary prog of 1,2 against a run.

You start your secondary prog of 12358 at 1.

So after losing your 1,2 you go back to a 1 bet.

If the OR count is - you bet your 1 ON the run.

If the OR count is + you bet your 1 AGAINST the run.

If you lose that secondary prog 1 bet, next time you lose a primary 1,2 your secondary prog is at 2. (prog within a prog)

Lets say you win your 1 OTR. We achieved our goal. We got 1 unit back of the 2 we lost. Fine. Wait for the run to end.

Lets say you win your 1 ATR. Again you achieved your goal. The run ended so Continue with the primary prog of 1,2

Lets say you lose your 1 ATR. Again wait for the run to end. But the next run your secondary prog is at 2.

Am I making any sense?

Yes, definitely Ellis.

My main point was that net betting 4D - the way it is now - always bets against runs which is where it runs into trouble.

You are an Engineer like me, I believe. You know standard design practice is to create a solution, then attack it with FMEA to shore up the weak areas. To me, that's the key to solving this puzzle.

I'll give your prog in a prog a try on some of my test shoes that lost due to runs.

[LOU30]

So far the safest solution to play!(by far)

And to eliminate the danger of all runs BUT what a shameful waste!!! I know this is all about the +5 concept and playing it safe but lets not let a good thing pass us by as Ellis just said ''You can't play Baccarat just betting against all runs. That won't work. ''.

Lets say you win your 1 OTR, WHY not stay on the run until it ends or make our next winning OTR bet a 2 unit bet and make the runs work for us as well.

Glad to see everyone back on board,keep up the good work.

Regards Lou.

You can't play Baccarat just betting against all runs. That won't work.

So OK, you are only trying to get to +5 so we don't need a lot of 3 bets.

You lose your primary prog of 1,2 against a run.

You start your secondary prog of 12358 at 1.

So after losing your 1,2 you go back to a 1 bet.

If the OR count is - you bet your 1 ON the run.

If the OR count is + you bet your 1 AGAINST the run.

If you lose that secondary prog 1 bet, next time you lose a primary 1,2 your secondary prog is at 2. (prog within a prog)

Lets say you win your 1 OTR. We achieved our goal. We got 1 unit back of the 2 we lost. Fine. Wait for the run to end.

Lets say you win your 1 ATR. Again you achieved your goal. The run ended so Continue with the primary prog of 1,2

Lets say you lose your 1 ATR. Again wait for the run to end. But the next run your secondary prog is at 2.

Am I making any sense?

[Quizzical1]

So far the safest solution to play!(by far)

And to eliminate the danger of all runs BUT what a shameful waste!!! I know this is all about the +5 concept and playing it safe but lets not let a good thing pass us by as Ellis just said ''You can't play Baccarat just betting against all runs. That won't work. ''.

Lets say you win your 1 OTR, WHY not stay on the run until it ends or make our next winning OTR bet a 2 unit bet and make the runs work for us as well.

Glad to see everyone back on board,keep up the good work.

Regards Lou.

Agree 100% Lou.

Take advantage of the run if you can, but let's not lose sight of the main goal - get to +5 units.

I'd hate to see someone get greedy and incur major losses trying to "catch the wave" (yes, I've done it sad to say).

What's that stock market slogan? Bulls make money. Bears make money. But pigs get slaughtered.

Food for thought...

[LOU30]

LoL Isn't that the truth...

Agree 100% Lou.

Take advantage of the run if you can, but let's not lose sight of the main goal - get to +5 units.

I'd hate to see someone get greedy and incur major losses trying to "catch the wave" (yes, I've done it sad to say).

What's that stock market slogan? Bulls make money. Bears make money. But pigs get slaughtered.

Food for thought...

Just want everyone to

[Quizzical1]

Ellis / Keith,

Could the 2-2-1 Gaming Approach help here at all? Not sure what it even is, but I'm trying to exhaust all options.

[Wendel]

So far the safest solution to play!(by far)

And to eliminate the danger of all runs BUT what a shameful waste!!! I know this is all about the +5 concept and playing it safe but lets not let a good thing pass us by as Ellis just said ''You can't play Baccarat just betting against all runs. That won't work. ''.

Lets say you win your 1 OTR, WHY not stay on the run until it ends or make our next winning OTR bet a 2 unit bet and make the runs work for us as well.

Glad to see everyone back on board,keep up the good work.

Regards Lou.

I don't see any harm on staying OTR at least two 2 bets if the first OTR bet wins as in NOR S40 Mode2. If we win that one we have nothing to

lose by staying OTR betting one unit until the run ends. Then optionally , if we aren't at +5 by then ,we could bet 2 on the same side after the loss that ended the run(mini twist ?).

[Wendel]

So far the safest solution to play!(by far)

And to eliminate the danger of all runs BUT what a shameful waste!!! I know this is all about the +5 concept and playing it safe but lets not let a good thing pass us by as Ellis just said ''You can't play Baccarat just betting against all runs. That won't work. ''.

Lets say you win your 1 OTR, WHY not stay on the run until it ends or make our next winning OTR bet a 2 unit bet and make the runs work for us as well.

Glad to see everyone back on board,keep up the good work.

Regards Lou.

I don't see any harm on staying OTR at least two 2 bets if the first OTR bet wins as in NOR S40 Mode2. If we win that one we have nothing to

lose by staying OTR betting one unit until the run ends. Then optionally , if we aren't at +5 by then ,we could bet 2 on the same side after the loss that ended the run(mini twist ?).

[Quizzical1]

Here's a hard shoe to play S4D:

P4211121411121113335

Ellis (and anyone else if they care to), can you take a crack at it and see where I'm going wrong?

I ended with a -16 using 1234 prog and trying the prog within a prog.

I'll try it again to check for errors.

Thanks

[Baccarat A]

I just took a quick look at it and might actually play it later. What does your OO/TT column look like?

[Plus One]

TB4L should be screaming at you high 1's and 3's with low 2's.

[Plus One]

Its not 4D its NOR

[Baccarat A]

Here's a hard shoe to play S4D:

P4211121411121113335

Ellis (and anyone else if they care to), can you take a crack at it and see where I'm going wrong?

I ended with a -16 using 1234 prog and trying the prog within a prog.

I'll try it again to check for errors.

Thanks

Hi Quiz, aren’t you the one that came up with EZ4D or whatever it’s being called? First, would you please use the proper short notation or else post the shoe on a score card. I initially made a mistake in copying it down and don’t think that I would have if it was posted in the traditional way. The shoe I played was:

P421112141111

B11113335 (38 hands)

I’m not sure when Brenda decided that the shoe was screaming for TB4L. Yes, when you see the whole shoe, it is obvious. At play 6 all you have is a 4 and an unconfirmed 2. Anyway, the column counts at hand 6 are PB+2, OR-3, OT+1 and OOTT+1. I simply bet the opposite of what happened in the OT column. Lost 1B hand 7, won 2B on 8, then -1B,-2P,+3B and never looked back. I used the 1,2,3,4 progression and had 3 3bets and won them all. I did not use the prog within a prog. I do not like a negative Fibonacci progression. Some bench marks for you are: +5 @15, +10 @28, +15@37 and quit @+14@37. I think that the results would be similar if you net bet the OT column.

Don't think that I made any mistakes. Let me know if I did.

[kingfisher]

Bac A - Trying to play same shoe and at play 6 my 3rd column Otb4l score is zero. Please let me know if I am counting wrong. Anyway, as best I am grasping this stuff. my final score was zero for the game. Guess I am missing something.

[Quizzical1]

Hi Quiz, aren’t you the one that came up with EZ4D or whatever it’s being called? First, would you please use the proper short notation or else post the shoe on a score card. I initially made a mistake in copying it down and don’t think that I would have if it was posted in the traditional way. The shoe I played was:

P421112141111

B11113335 (38 hands)

I’m not sure when Brenda decided that the shoe was screaming for TB4L. Yes, when you see the whole shoe, it is obvious. At play 6 all you have is a 4 and an unconfirmed 2. Anyway, the column counts at hand 6 are PB+2, OR-3, OT+1 and OOTT+1. I simply bet the opposite of what happened in the OT column. Lost 1B hand 7, won 2B on 8, then -1B,-2P,+3B and never looked back. I used the 1,2,3,4 progression and had 3 3bets and won them all. I did not use the prog within a prog. I do not like a negative Fibonacci progression. Some bench marks for you are: +5 @15, +10 @28, +15@37 and quit @+14@37. I think that the results would be similar if you net bet the OT column.

Don't think that I made any mistakes. Let me know if I did.

I'll try and post it - as sloppy as I write....looking back at it, I think I was also trying to use the prog within a prog - but probably incorrectly.

Hand 6 OT count should be 0 since you have 2 sames then 2 opposites. Right?

[Quizzical1]

Bac A - Trying to play same shoe and at play 6 my 3rd column Otb4l score is zero. Please let me know if I am counting wrong. Anyway, as best I am grasping this stuff. my final score was zero for the game. Guess I am missing something.

Not neccesarily king. After review, I was testing the p within a p so my scoring may be out of whack.

Can u post ur shoe?

[Quizzical1]

Here it is guys.

Please IGNORE the scoring - like I said, I was fooling around with p within a p and obviously got screwed up. Also I forgot to number the plays. Sorry.

Critique the counts and let me know if there is a key thing I'm missing that would correct the betting to achieve a higher hit rate ok?

[Quizzical1]

Guys,

I had another thought on how to troubleshoot difficult shoes - and I apologize for not thinking of this sooner.

I'm an Engineer by trade dammit and use this technique frequently so it should have been a no-brainer.

It's called Reverse Engineering. Basically, you take what already exists and disassemble it, piece - by - piece analyzing and making notes as you go.

So, for difficult S4D shoes like the one I posted you would:

1. Fill in the outcomes.

2. Fill in all your counts.

3. Assume and place a 1 bet in each outcome starting at hand 8 like you won 100% of the bets.

4. Go back to hand 7 (our recommended start) and circle the count or counts that would have produced the winning bet for the next hand 8. This would be either the lowest count (bet opp last outcome for that count) or the highest over 4 (bet same as last outcome for that count).

5. Repeat for the rest of the shoe.

Hopefully, with a lot of eyes on this someone will see if there is anything worth taking from this.

Thoughts?

[Baccarat A]

Bac A - Trying to play same shoe and at play 6 my 3rd column Otb4l score is zero. Please let me know if I am counting wrong. Anyway, as best I am grasping this stuff. my final score was zero for the game. Guess I am missing something.

Quiz EZ4D shoe.doc

Sorry guys, but this seems to be the only way that I was able to upload this.

[newbacplayer]

Quizzical1: [regarding the scanned in shoe] I played this starting at hand 7, net betting on O/R column. At hand 10, switched to O/T column as its disparity became lowest. Net bet O/T through the last set of 5P listed on the top of the page, and I got a score of +9. I can scan my page for the forum on Monday and upload it if you would find that useful. Used 1,2,3,4 progression on each side of net bet, and reached a "3" net bet only three times. Very important, though, to switch to the column of lowest disparity as Ellis has said many times. -gb

[Quizzical1]

Quizzical1: [regarding the scanned in shoe] I played this starting at hand 7, net betting on O/R column. At hand 10, switched to O/T column as its disparity became lowest. Net bet O/T through the last set of 5P listed on the top of the page, and I got a score of +9. I can scan my page for the forum on Monday and upload it if you would find that useful. Used 1,2,3,4 progression on each side of net bet, and reached a "3" net bet only three times. Very important, though, to switch to the column of lowest disparity as Ellis has said many times. -gb

Thanks and yes, please post your shoe. I can't see a reason to ever NOT post them.

[Guest]

So Glenn, see what 4DS does on this shoe so we get a side by side comparison.

[Quizzical1]

Quizzical1: [regarding the scanned in shoe] I played this starting at hand 7, net betting on O/R column. At hand 10, switched to O/T column as its disparity became lowest. Net bet O/T through the last set of 5P listed on the top of the page, and I got a score of +9. I can scan my page for the forum on Monday and upload it if you would find that useful. Used 1,2,3,4 progression on each side of net bet, and reached a "3" net bet only three times. Very important, though, to switch to the column of lowest disparity as Ellis has said many times. -gb

Thanks and yes, please post your shoe. I can't see a reason to ever NOT post them.

[Quizzical1]

Here is my sample card with a 20 hand shoe already in. I figure let's walk thru 20 hand practice shoes before we run thru a full shoe: