BaS40 +5 Strategy

[Guest]

This is the same shoe previously posted played S40M1

We see it does almost as well played BaS40

My point here is that system selection is less important with the +5 strategy

Some will find it easier to stick to the same +5 system,

That will only cost you about 1 unit on avg I'm guessing.

Others will prefer to use system selection to squeeze out every advantage possible.

System selection is much simpler with +5 than it was with NOR

+5 selection:

Hi 1's = BaS40

Hi 2s = BaOTB4L

Hi 3+s = S40M1

In most cases all 3 will beat the same shoe to +5. But one will usually be fastest using the above formula

Recognize that ALL shoes end up high in one or two of the above - but never in all 3.

Shoes also MUST be low in something.

Note that I played runs the same way as before.

I did EVERYTHING the same exact way except this time I used the BaS40 base.

Will S40M1 always do better?'

Hmm, good question. Let's find out.

[stevep]

You mention three systems BaS40, BaOTB4L & S40M1. Can you please post the rules for each method on this forum?

[MVSeahog]

Chief,

Jumping in to head off a confusion crisis....

I see the play at hand 27, 43, 53 and 61 are all consistent. They go back to opposite after a red win.

The only one that doesn't is hand 7.

The second question is the play at hand 17. Is that correct?

Other than that, the shoe moved along nicely and more importantly, it actually made sense in the play!

Thanks.

MVS

[bluetri]

MVS, as per the other thread, the bet at 7 occurred during the first run. Before we know which way to play them. Ellis said to stay on the first run.

[gman72]

MVS, as per the other thread, the bet at 7 occurred during the first run. Before we know which way to play them. Ellis said to stay on the first run.

Well, if the first run worked, why off the second one?

[no3bet]

Chief,

The second question is the play at hand 17. Is that correct?

MVS

Hand 17 should be a restart of prog 1 betting opposite after OTR loses.

I hate to see any consecutive loses of more than 4. I wonder if Ellis may have a solution that will NOT cause consecutive loses of more than 4?

AYS

[no3bet]

Well, if the first run worked, why off the second one?

That's because we shall act just like a robot !?!

LOL

AYS

[gman72]

Hand 17 should be a restart of prog 1 betting opposite after OTR loses.

I hate to see any consecutive loses of more than 4. I wonder if Ellis may have a solution that will NOT cause consecutive loses of more than 4?

AYS

How's that? I thought play #16 should be the restart of prog 1 betting, since it was after a loss of the secondary progression bet at play #15. So I don't get that bet on banker at #16. And the play at #15 was ATR not OTR, which I don't get either.

[Wendel]

Chief,

Jumping in to head off a confusion crisis....

I see the play at hand 27, 43, 53 and 61 are all consistent. They go back to opposite after a red win.

The only one that doesn't is hand 7.

The second question is the play at hand 17. Is that correct?

Other than that, the shoe moved along nicely and more importantly, it actually made sense in the play!

Thanks.

MVS

Hi MVS,

I think that hand 17 may be an OTR attempt similar to what we discussed yesterday. (361).

He lost all three bets ATR which includes the bet for the secondary prog.

Now there is nowhere to go but OTR.

Wendel

p.s.

Are you numbering your plays beginning with 0 ?

we seem to be out of sync by 1.

[gman72]

I think that hand 17 may be an OTR attempt similar to what we discussed yesterday. (361).

He lost all three bets ATR which includes the bet for the secondary prog.

Now there is nowhere to go but OTR.

Wendel

Sorry, I'm confused on this. How can play #17 be an OTR attempt when it is betting under a losing bet at play #16. What is the run? The only run I can see playing there in that spot is a ZZ run and what would have triggered that thinking at this point?

[Guest]

You mention three systems BaS40, BaOTB4L & S40M1. Can you please post the rules for each method on this forum?

Yes, we will discuss each one in turn. But I can't post rules until Keith gets our privitization of this forum fixed.

[Guest]

Chief,

Jumping in to head off a confusion crisis....

I see the play at hand 27, 43, 53 and 61 are all consistent. They go back to opposite after a red win.

The only one that doesn't is hand 7.

The second question is the play at hand 17. Is that correct?

Other than that, the shoe moved along nicely and more importantly, it actually made sense in the play!

Thanks.

MVS

Right, some got the explanations right, some didn't. First I'll repost the shoe with play numbers so everyone can follow your questions:

Play 7 - we stay on the first run until we lose.

Btw, For our purposes here, runs are 4 or mores.

Plays 43 and 53. The prior run determines how long we stay on runs (play 16)

play 17 is correct. We lost our OTR attempt at 16 so we are right back to betting 1,2 on opposites (S40) same as play 13.

[MVSeahog]

Right, some got the explanations right, some didn't. First I'll repost the shoe with play numbers so everyone can follow your questions:

OK, I'm also guilty of not being able to count. The play in question is actually Hand 16. Arrrrgh. I hate it when that happens.

MVS

[gman72]

play 17 is correct. We lost our OTR attempt at 16 so we are right back to betting 1,2 on opposites (S40) same as play 13.

Further explanation would be appreciated here. I don't follow the bet at play #16. If the ATR secondary progression bet of 1 at play #15 lost, why are you not restarting the primary progression at play #16? What am I missing here?

[no3bet]

How's that? I thought play #16 should be the restart of prog 1 betting, since it was after a loss of the secondary progression bet at play #15. So I don't get that bet on banker at #16. And the play at #15 was ATR not OTR, which I don't get either.

Hand 15 is the 2nd bet of the secondary prog. The 1st secondary prog bet at hand 6 rules that hand 15 to bet 3 will stay 3. After that loss we go OTR with our 1st prog which is hand 16. It is a continuation of prog 1 bet. After it loses hand 17 restarts again with another prog 1 bet. Remember we are on Basic S40 therefore we restart prog 1 always with a 1 unit bet after OTR loses. This is similar at hand 12 and 13.

AYS

[gman72]

Hand 15 is the 2nd bet of the secondary prog. The 1st secondary prog bet at hand 6 rules that hand 15 to bet 3 will stay 3. After that loss we go OTR with our 1st prog which is hand 16. It is a continuation of prog 1 bet. After it loses hand 17 restarts again with another prog 1 bet. Remember we are on Basic S40 therefore we restart prog 1 always with a 1 unit bet after OTR loses. This is similar at hand 12 and 13.

AYS

???

Would someone be willing to point out where in the posts Ellis says that after a ATR secondary progression bet loses that the next bet is an OTR primary progression continuation bet?

[newbacplayer]

I believe, if I've understood, is that because the first run lasted for 9 plays IAR, plays 3 through 11, that determines that you will follow the next run for up to nine: hence going OTR at play 16. Because this loses, in the future, use 4 Plays IAR to determine how long to stay on runs [Plays 12-15 determine this]. Please correct me if I'm wrong in this understanding.

[no3bet]

???

Would someone be willing to point out where in the posts Ellis says that after a ATR secondary progression bet loses that the next bet is an OTR primary progression continuation bet?

I don’t think Ellis ever mentioned that specifically. However from my understanding after reading his sample plays, this is what it seems to me. The secondary prog is either a test (0 bet) or a progression set up to fight against the culprit (win back what he have lost before). We place only one bet and no matter whether it wins or not, we continue with our primary bet. Now that there may be a favor of play by looking at those previous hands (ie, play 43 and 53 or the S40M1 either going for 5iars or stop at 4iars). In this case I choose OTR because 4iars is a LC event of which we continue our OTR bet and that’s what Ellis did.

Ellis please come in if I am wrong.

AYS

[Wendel]

???

Would someone be willing to point out where in the posts Ellis says that after a ATR secondary progression bet loses that the next bet is an OTR primary progression continuation bet?

What other reasonable option do you have ? you are sitting there, having lost your secondary progression bet ATR.

[Guest]

I believe, if I've understood, is that because the first run lasted for 9 plays IAR, plays 3 through 11, that determines that you will follow the next run for up to nine: hence going OTR at play 16. Because this loses, in the future, use 4 Plays IAR to determine how long to stay on runs [Plays 12-15 determine this]. Please correct me if I'm wrong in this understanding.

Exactly right newbacplayer. And when we are unfortunate enough to lose an OTR bet (play 16) we do not react to that loss at all. We do not punish ourselves for attempting to stay on a run too long. We simply start over with our primary prog. Also see my next post re runs.

[Guest]

Here is a thought especially for those convinced that they should stay on all runs until they lose.

Right now if we stay on a run only through 4, we make 6s culprit. A 6 makes us lose 123 ATR.

Likewise staying thru 5 makes 7s culprit.

And staying thru 6 makes 8s culprit.

9s are nearly always culprit unless they are the first run of the shoe.

In every case we lose 6 units which is pretty much unrecoverable since we are betting so low.

Whether above or below normal, runs are a fact of life and they can occur at any time in any shoe.

The way I have it right now, unless it is the first run of the shoe, runs too long are, by far, our major culprit.

We will lose a shoe on runs far more often than by losing our secondary prog. So runs too long are our major culprit right now.

But there is a simple way to reduce our Maximum exposure from runs to only 2 units. -2 is very recoverable. -6 isn't.

So ok, we still come off of runs at the currently prescribed point determined by the prior run.

But when the run keeps going so we lose our ATR 1 bet, we simply go back on the run with 1 and stay until we lose.

The WORST that could happen is we attempt going back on the run but it ends right there and we lose a second 1 bet. Big whip! There are lots of ways we lose two 1 bets in a row and we think nothing of it (plays 12 and 13) (plays 16 and 17) because, while a nusaince, we know -2 is recoverable.

In fact a minus 112111 was recoverable (plays 12 thru 17) so back to back -1's are easily recoverable.

This way ALL long runs become profitable and really long runs of 10 or more get us to +5 automatically before the forced loss at the end of the run.

We eliminate runs as a culprit altogether. We eliminate our major culprit.

Do you think that's maybe a smarter way to play?

Also it is a good compromise with the OTR boys.

[Wendel]

Here is a thought especially for those convinced that they should stay on all runs until they lose.

Right now if we stay on a run only through 4, we make 6s culprit. A 6 makes us lose 123 ATR.

Likewise staying thru 5 makes 7s culprit.

And staying thru 6 makes 8s culprit.

9s are nearly always culprit unless they are the first run of the shoe.

In every case we lose 6 units which is pretty much unrecoverable since we are betting so low.

Whether above or below normal, runs are a fact of life and they can occur at any time in any shoe.

The way I have it right now, unless it is the first run of the shoe, runs too long are, by far, our major culprit.

We will lose a shoe on runs far more often than by losing our secondary prog. So runs too long are our major culprit right now.

But there is a simple way to reduce our Maximum exposure from runs to only 2 units. -2 is very recoverable. -6 isn't.

So ok, we still come off of runs at the currently prescribed point determined by the prior run.

But when the run keeps going so we lose our ATR 1 bet, we simply go back on the run with 1 and stay until we lose.

The WORST that could happen is we attempt going back on the run but it ends right there and we lose a second 1 bet. Big whip! There are lots of ways we lose two 1 bets in a row and we think nothing of it (plays 12 and 13) (plays 16 and 17) because, while a nusaince, we know -2 is recoverable.

In fact a minus 112111 was recoverable (plays 12 thru 17) so back to back -1's are easily recoverable.

This way ALL long runs become profitable and really long runs of 10 or more get us to +5 automatically before the forced loss at the end of the run.

We eliminate runs as a culprit altogether. We eliminate our major culprit.

Do you think that's maybe a smarter way to play?

Also it is a good compromise with the OTR boys.

It seems to me , that if we stay on the runs to the end, we stand to lose 1 unit at the end

and don't have to play the losing ATR to lose 6units.

Further , I think that a run longer than about 3 is a bias, and who bets against a bias ?

[Guest]

See, yes, through the advent of preshuffled cards, the casinos may have successfully closed the loophole of winning by playing biases.

BUT in so doing, they have reopened the loophole of winning through clever mathematics. We win by eliminating common culprits.

Most mathematicians simply don't think it through far enough. They sit on their laurels and declare "you can't beat random numbers". BUT there are ways if you think it through far enough.

I prefer to listen to my favorite mathematician - Markum. He said to Trump who was up against his first million dollar unit whale player that day and more than a little nervous. "Donald, you can't lose to this player because he doesn't know when to quit. You only lose to players who DO know when to quit." Hence +5. Before commission the game is purely 50/50. Half the time you are up, half the time you are down. But if you always quit when you are up.....you are a winner. Plain and simple.

[Guest]

Guys, I've got to take time off to help Keith with this privatization problem. I'm the only one who knows who is supposed to be on this forum and who isn't. Some are registered but not paid and others are paid but not registered. So if you are registered, make sure you are paid and if you are paid, make sure you are registered. So, how do you register? Can someone who is registered please answer that.

[Guest]

It seems to me , that if we stay on the runs to the end, we stand to lose 1 unit at the end

and don't have to play the losing ATR to lose 6units.

Further , I think that a run longer than about 3 is a bias, and who bets against a bias ?

Well, I've already explained the math. If you simply stay on all runs until you lose you are forfeiting critical units on 4s and 5s and sometimes 6s which occur far far more often than 8 or mores. If the choice was free, I'd agree with you. But staying on all runs is far from free. It costs you units on 4s and 5s that may be very critical to averaging +5. Sure, you make 5 units on a 10 iar. But how often do you see ten iars compared to 4s and 5s??? So I gave you a compromise that lets you have your cake and eat it too. If you choose to ignore that as well as pure math - well, I tried. That's all I can do.