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Quizzical1

Ellis and all,

I've been quiet for a while now digesting the three systems and have them down fairly well as compared to the correctly played versions and have a stupid question so please be kind in your replies. So here it is:

Is there any reason the S40M3 can't be tweaked to some type of BaS40M3 method with a secondary prog within a prog? Though not as efficient as BaOTB4L for 3's it does handle all 1's, 2's and 3's and eliminates having to watch for ZZ runs altogether only having to focus on straight iar's of 4 or more which seems to me if a secondary prog like the 0,1,2,3 is optimized for this method, could work as the go-to default system covering both S40 and OTB4L shoes - albeit not as efficiently for OTB4L - but at least enough to get to +5 units. Of course, std CYA rules would still apply (eg. no 2 unit bets until a win and when score dips below 0).

Thoughts?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Ellis and all,

I've been quiet for a while now digesting the three systems and have them down fairly well as compared to the correctly played versions and have a stupid question so please be kind in your replies. So here it is:

Is there any reason the S40M3 can't be tweaked to some type of BaS40M3 method with a secondary prog within a prog? Though not as efficient as BaOTB4L for 3's it does handle all 1's, 2's and 3's and eliminates having to watch for ZZ runs altogether only having to focus on straight iar's of 4 or more which seems to me if a secondary prog like the 0,1,2,3 is optimized for this method, could work as the go-to default system covering both S40 and OTB4L shoes - albeit not as efficiently for OTB4L - but at least enough to get to +5 units. Of course, std CYA rules would still apply (eg. no 2 unit bets until a win and when score dips below 0).

Thoughts?

Hmm, I hadn't thought of that because S40M3 invokes 3 bets. But, like you, I have been following the escapades of our member playing solely S40M3. At Gold Strike, Tunica, I too have had days where S40M3 simply wins every shoe often at +20.

Here's what's going on with that: S40M3 automatically beats all 1's, 2s and 3s which is 7/8ths of all events. Pretty hard to lose everything on the other 1/8th. Sure, he will get some M2 days but no question, M3 beats a lot of shoes.

I suppose we could water down the prog to something like 1220123 but that might do more harm than good.

It is certaily food for thought.

A 1230123 has a certain ring of balance to it.

Most shoes we would have very few secondary progs. We might even consider 1230246.

Hey, try some shoes and see what happens.

If you win a couple everyone will be trying it. We certainly get days when that is the only way to fly.

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Quizzical1

Ellis,

What prompted this is I did try playing the systems live and ran into trouble trying to decipher whether to use BaS40 or BaOTB4L and as you can probably guess - I picked the wrong one from the getgo.

I figured I'd start using BaS40 since it was easier to follow runs ( iar's) but was getting nowhere by hand 18 or so and noticed 2's and 3's so I switched to BaOTB4L which then the shoe started to turn to a BaS40 shoe. That's what made me think of using S40M3 - with its only downside being the 3 bet - to cover both scenarios. The only thing I wasn't sure of was what inner prog would be best to use so I just stuck with 0123 and was able to turn that losing shoe into a +8.

Starting from the beginning of a shoe I think you could wait until an opposite shows to start betting (bet table min if only one at table and P and B bets at same time are not allowed). Then follow the survival rules of:

1. No 2 unit bet until a win.

2. No bet over one unit that takes you below zero.

3. If you go below zero, use only single unit bets until you get back to a positive score.

That should help minimize the inevitable losses that will happen.

Btw, here's the shoe:

B423212321

B2171111114

B411118211

Thoughts?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Glenn

Privately I've been testing a ton of shoes using s40m3. See for me I like the 3 methods but I could not figure out which system to use when. Starting a shoe with a predetermined method was not working. Then I saw djbacc success and started testing it. It did the best overall over basobt4l and bas40.

This was using just a 1,2,3 prog then Otr after a 3 loss. Just like dj played it.

But when I apply a prog in a prog, it became difficult to over come the loss of the 1.2 bets when the third bet is a 0 whereas dj uses a 3 for a recovery. Perhaps our prog in a prog should not be 0123 but maybe 3456?

Todd

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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Ellis what if we used our first prog say 123 then if we lose the 3 then we start our secondary prog?

I see too many shoes testing this with the first 3 winning and helping us to recover the initial 12 loss

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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It's hard to argue with the math of S40M3. That used to be the only way I played... I thought I was invincible at first. Then I kept hitting my stop loss during rough patches shoe after shoe and knew I couldn't solely play that. I don't know though - dj is doing WAY better than I ever did with it. I think he is better at table selection than I was. I only have 3 tables that are usually full so I sort of gotta go for it.

I think there is a place for it in the +5 system though. Maybe some form of the secondary prog is the answer over the long haul? But if that's the case, I can't help but thinking of U1D2 which we already have for NOR.

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MVSeahog
Ellis and all,

Is there any reason the S40M3 can't be tweaked to some type of BaS40M3 method with a secondary prog within a prog?

Thoughts?

Quizzical,

Not a stupid question by any stretch of the imagination. I"ve been running with a "test" version of what you've described which amounts to BaS40M3 and it's performing nicely.

The fact that so many have "looked" at it (M3) shows that we're all basically coming up with some pretty good ideas once we run the whole idea of "+5" through our usual channels.

As Ellis pointed out, being able to handle the 1,2,3 stuff under M3 makes up about 87% of the decisions.

Thanks for bringing it up and showing me that I'm in good company with the M3 thought process.

MVS

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Quizzical,

Not a stupid question by any stretch of the imagination. I"ve been running with a "test" version of what you've described which amounts to BaS40M3 and it's performing nicely.

The fact that so many have "looked" at it (M3) shows that we're all basically coming up with some pretty good ideas once we run the whole idea of "+5" through our usual channels.

As Ellis pointed out, being able to handle the 1,2,3 stuff under M3 makes up about 87% of the decisions.

Thanks for bringing it up and showing me that I'm in good company with the M3 thought process.

MVS

Mvs what I see is we need to use a 123 prog for recovery and I'm not sure what the second prog should

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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Quizzical1

I've played with DJBacc on a few occasions early on a few months ago while we were still looking at 4D.

He was sold on S40M3 while I was trying to make the 4D work. His initial shoes were sketchy because we would just sit down and play, but as we are all seeing he is performing nicely due to the addition of table selection and / or waiting for the shoe to exhaust a run and start a chop (+ OR direction) to start playing.

Additionally, he's playing strictly M-Tu-Wed mornings where I strongly feel the shoes favor his method of play and are more consistent.

Unfortunately for me, I work full time and cannot attend his sessions so I'm stuck with evenings and the occasional ungodly weekend shoes (which are all over the place and yes, a BAD time to play).

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Quizzical1
Mvs what I see is we need to use a 123 prog for recovery and I'm not sure what the second prog should

Yes, I was hoping Ellis could guide us as to what the best secondary prog would be. He posted earlier about 123 0123 which is what I was testing with. Since the goal is only +5 units it seems to work as long as you remember to stick to flat bets until your first win and if you get into negative territory.

I notice that Mike (BaccDJ) hit a -6 on one of his shoes before hanging in there and getting the win of +6, but would have only had a drawdown of -2 had he flat bet his way back into positive territory.

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Yes, I was hoping Ellis could guide us as to what the best secondary prog would be. He posted earlier about 123 0123 which is what I was testing with. Since the goal is only +5 units it seems to work as long as you remember to stick to flat bets until your first win and if you get into negative territory.

I notice that Mike (BaccDJ) hit a -6 on one of his shoes before hanging in there and getting the win of +6, but would have only had a drawdown of -2 had he flat bet his way back into positive territory.

I agree.

I think his advice to wait till the first chop to begin is the best way to start..this seems to work the best for s40m3 then we should use the 123 0123 for sure....but I just hit on something else I've notice with the or counts...

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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I thought I would run this past the S40M3 guys who want a secondary prog

Play s40m3 with a 121 prog (all ATR)

If the third bet wins (having lost the first 2 bets) bet 2 units opposite the the third bet (or according to shoe history for the 2 unit bet)

If the third bet loses go OTR with the standard 0123 secondary prog .

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Quizzical1
I thought I would run this past the S40M3 guys who want a secondary prog

Play s40m3 with a 121 prog (all ATR)

If the third bet wins (having lost the first 2 bets) bet 2 units opposite the the third bet (or according to shoe history for the 2 unit bet)

If the third bet loses go OTR with the standard 0123 secondary prog .

Thanks Wendel,

I've been playing around with something similar if I get near 0 to help conserve bankroll.

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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I thought I would run this past the S40M3 guys who want a secondary prog

Play s40m3 with a 121 prog (all ATR)

If the third bet wins (having lost the first 2 bets) bet 2 units opposite the the third bet (or according to shoe history for the 2 unit bet)

If the third bet loses go OTR with the standard 0123 secondary prog .

Wendell,

could you please explain this again...I seem to somehow got lost in how to apply this...thanks..

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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Here is a shoe played out BaS40, BaS40M3, and then again BaS40M3 following Glenn's three rules in post #4.

image2014_05_19_14_24_490001.pdf

This is only one shoe, but it didn't quite work as well as I expected. Glenn's conservative rules certainly keep the losses down, but can hold you back also in advancing forward some. Thoughts?

DISCLAIMER: (I feel this is necessary now)

This is not an approved shoe. Review at your own risk of getting incorrect information. It was not posted by, reviewed by or approved by Ellis so review at your own risk of being misinformed.

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Quizzical1
Here is a shoe played out BaS40, BaS40M3, and then again BaS40M3 following Glenn's three rules in post #4.

[ATTACH]2970[/ATTACH]

This is only one shoe, but it didn't quite work as well as I expected. Glenn's conservative rules certainly keep the losses down, but can hold you back also in advancing forward some. Thoughts?

DISCLAIMER: (I feel this is necessary now)

This is not an approved shoe. Review at your own risk of getting incorrect information. It was not posted by, reviewed by or approved by Ellis so review at your own risk of being misinformed.

Good job Gman!

Yes, I agree that the conservative rules, while helping minimize your drawdown, hold you back on gaining which is why I was wondering if a different plan of attack is warranted. I kind of liked the idea of using the M3 so as not to have to choose between BaS40 and BaOTB4L.

Any ideas?

Any chance you could take a stab at this one:

B423212321

B2171111114

B411118211

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Good job Gman!

Yes, I agree that the conservative rules, while helping minimize your drawdown, hold you back on gaining which is why I was wondering if a different plan of attack is warranted. I kind of liked the idea of using the M3 so as not to have to choose between BaS40 and BaOTB4L.

Any ideas?

Any chance you could take a stab at this one:

B423212321

B2171111114

B411118211

I'll work this one out here in a little bit and post up.

I agree that the idea of an easier solution to deciding between BaS40 and BaOTB4L would be great, but I'm just not sure about the additional 3 bet yet and I really like getting on runs sooner with the other methods. A 3 bet doesn't really scare me, since I'm used to NOR+ playing U1D2, it's just I've come to really like the more conservative nature of the +5 progressions and think it gives me more confidence to push up my units to a higher level.

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Wendell,

could you please explain this again...I seem to somehow got lost in how to apply this...thanks..

I will give it a try !!

I am sorry , but I am having trouble uploading and attaching the diagram for this post.

Scenario 1 a sequence of b1312

the bets starting at play 3 are B1 B2 B1 P2

since the third bet won our next bet

is 2 opposite the winning bank bet

This is just a normal S40 opposite bet

The last bets do what a single 3 unit bet used

to do and we are even.

If the 4th bet bet loses we are down 4 instead of 6

going on the run.

If we were playing m2 we would be down 3 going on the run.

Scenario 2 a sequence of b1412

starting at play 3 are B1 B2 B1 P0

since the third bet Lost our next bet

is on the run . 0 if it is our first on the run bet

We are down 4 going on the run.

Overall our worst case is down 4

Does this help ?

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Any chance you could take a stab at this one:

B423212321

B2171111114

B411118211

I will post up in the morning when I'm at my scanner. I've worked them out and I want to double check them, but on first run through, BaOTB4L handles the shoe nicely, but the other three methods get crushed.

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johnnycs1
Hmm, I hadn't thought of that because S40M3 invokes 3 bets. But, like you, I have been following the escapades of our member playing solely S40M3. At Gold Strike, Tunica, I too have had days where S40M3 simply wins every shoe often at +20.

Here's what's going on with that: S40M3 automatically beats all 1's, 2s and 3s which is 7/8ths of all events. Pretty hard to lose everything on the other 1/8th. Sure, he will get some M2 days but no question, M3 beats a lot of shoes.

I suppose we could water down the prog to something like 1220123 but that might do more harm than good.

It is certaily food for thought.

A 1230123 has a certain ring of balance to it.

Most shoes we would have very few secondary progs. We might even consider 1230246.

Hey, try some shoes and see what happens.

If you win a couple everyone will be trying it. We certainly get days when that is the only way to fly.

Ellis,

Being that S40M3 can beat 7/8 th's of the events out there !

I would think thats the end of the story ! ?? Would it not ?

The other 1/8 ....would probably not lose more than whats already being lost from incorrect systems used and incorrect ways of playing them , is my reasoning !

Couple of the guys have asked for , a refresh set of rules and progression ! Could ya do that please ?

Thank You Sir ! :cool:

johnny/albuquerque

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newbacplayer

After running a few shoes with the 1230123, I would have to say that the secondary progression is way too low to accommodate the 6 unit loss that started it. You would almost need something like 1230468 from the numbers I've seen on several shoes. The nice thing is that the secondary progression is far more rare than in the other SB40 systems. gb

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Quizzical1
I will post up in the morning when I'm at my scanner. I've worked them out and I want to double check them, but on first run through, BaOTB4L handles the shoe nicely, but the other three methods get crushed.

Thanks gman, that was an actual shoe from this past weekend.

As you see, if we were to use the S40M3 it will need some tweaking.

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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