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MDB+ vs MDB vs NOR


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To play this game successfully we need to face facts:

Regular cards and preshuffled cards present two entirely different games.

Those who say they are the same simply lack the experience to see the difference. But the difference is monumental - night and day.

With regular cards the card prep used causes extreme biases. We see:

Choppy games

Streaky games

High disparity SAP and OR counts

Strong sided games

Sporadic 1's

S40 shoes

OTB4L shoes

TB4L shoes and

F shoes

And whatever bias a shoe starts out with it usually continues

Bias systems like NOR and MDB beat this game. NOR is a little harder to learn and requires experience but for those who can thoroughly learn it NOR is the best way regular cards can be played.

MDB also beats regular cards and is easier to learn because it is purely mechanical.

But we must face up to the fact that both NOR and MDB are weak against preshuffled cards.

Regular cards favor bias

Preshuffled cards favor random

SAP measures bias. Therefore to use SAP in preshuffled cards we would have to bet that the highest count will go down and the lowest count will go up - SAP backwards

Therefore, as gman quickly discovered, while SAP works great in regular cards it does a poor job delivering our primary prog in preshuffled cards.

I did not see that coming and I apologize for that. But I don't make the Baccarat rules. The casino does. My job is to beat whatever rules the casino plays by.

SAP favors bias. Preshuffled cards favor random. SAP, at least the way we play it, probably does more harm than good in preshuffled cards.

But all testing by everybody confirmed that MDB's secondary prog virtually never loses in preshuffled cards.

Therein was our big clue as to how to beat preshuffled cards. Just play the secondary prog! Hence MDB+, the very best way to beat preshuffled cards BECAUSE it does not depend on biases. It plays to the weaknesses of random cards.

MDB+ is what works best in preshuffled cards. Sorry it took so long to figure that out.

Now there are those who don't like it when I start teaching something new.

Perhaps they would prefer it if I did what the BJ card counting gurus do. Keep teaching the same thing 20 years after it no longer works.

Well, that's not what I do. Sorry if it's inconvenient but I have to keep up with an ever changing game.

The casinos changed the game. They went to preshuffled, fixed, cards. I can't help that. All I can do is react to it. And I did. 5 of a kind soundly beats preshuffled cards. And it beats it VERY consistently. It produces the most consistent wins we have ever had in Baccarat.

So if you are going to always play regular cards, fine. Stick with NOR or MDB.

But if you are going to play Vegas or Asia, you need to know how to beat preshuffled cards. The old ways won't work.

So that is what I'm teaching. And it is the easiest system I have ever taught AND the winningest. Sorry, I'm not going to apologize for teaching what works.

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Ask the casino personnel what type of cards are being dealt @ the baccarat table or games that you are playing.

I have asked pit bosses and the dealers at the table if these card are regular cards or preshuffled cards, most of the time they will tell you.

Ellis

How do we know if regular cards are used or preshuffled?

What is the usual percentage of Regular cards vs Pre-shuffled cards?

Thanks

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Is anyone playing or played MDB+ live in a casino? I'm really curious how someone is going to sit at a bacc table, through a whole shoe, and only make around 5-10 bets. I don't think you could play heads up because they won't just deal all those free hands. And if the table is full they'll probably ask you to get up to make the seat available for another player. I guess if you find a table with only a few players you might be able to pull it off. How is this going to work in reality? I'd love to hear if anyone is actually playing it. I guess playing online it could work ok. Thoughts?

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Is anyone playing or played MDB+ live in a casino? I'm really curious how someone is going to sit at a bacc table, through a whole shoe, and only make around 5-10 bets. I don't think you could play heads up because they won't just deal all those free hands. And if the table is full they'll probably ask you to get up to make the seat available for another player. I guess if you find a table with only a few players you might be able to pull it off. How is this going to work in reality? I'd love to hear if anyone is actually playing it. I guess playing online it could work ok. Thoughts?

The only way I can come up with is the way Ellis explained it somewhere here. Bet the minimum wager to keep the shoe running and (often opposites if the cards are new preshuffled) then bet the amount you were supposed to according to MBD+.

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Is anyone playing or played MDB+ live in a casino? I'm really curious how someone is going to sit at a bacc table, through a whole shoe, and only make around 5-10 bets. I don't think you could play heads up because they won't just deal all those free hands. And if the table is full they'll probably ask you to get up to make the seat available for another player. I guess if you find a table with only a few players you might be able to pull it off. How is this going to work in reality? I'd love to hear if anyone is actually playing it. I guess playing online it could work ok. Thoughts?

I'm playing mostly online because there are no casino's nearby that have Baccarat. They only deal 2 or 3 hands without me betting before they lock me out of the casino for 30 minutes to an hour so I have been skipping 2 hands and then betting both sides with the minimum bet of $5 each. This costs me a quarter each time Banker wins but at least I can play the system.

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The only way I can come up with is the way Ellis explained it somewhere here. Bet the minimum wager to keep the shoe running and (often opposites if the cards are new preshuffled) then bet the amount you were supposed to according to MBD+.

Since you will need touch tables most likely, to get new pre shuffled cards each shoe, those will be $100 min tables, so you better be playing $1,000+ units to make that strategy work feasibly so you could bet $100 mins until an MDB+ event then bet your $1,000+ unit. But if you are a $100 unit bettor then this is not going to work for you.

I suppose you could bet both sides and just lose the commission on banker wins. I've never done this in the casino, so not sure if they'd allow that play to keep a shoe going or not.

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Just a thought, what if you played MDB & MDB+ at the same time.

That would be the ideal situation, but with MDB we're looking to be out of the shoe as early as possible with+5. With MDB+ it takes almost the whole shoe to get enough events to bet on to be able to reach +5.

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

Glad to see we are all thinking the same. I mentioned this to Keith two days ago. Play MDB for first 15 hands then switch to MDB+ We would already have the necessary counts by then for MDB+ This way every shoe is a winner.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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All good thoughts guys! I was also pondering the MDB+ situation:

With MDB+ the idea is to raise the stakes quickly - perhaps 5 units in the next denomination. So after 2 successful +5 shoes or 3 mediocre shoes we would go from say $100 units to $200 units. My point is that we won't be playing at table min very long. Plus we are often waiting quite a while to start - often 20 hands or more before we get 3 2s or 2 3s or 2 4s.

New preshuffled cards (Vegas touch games) are probably the best cards for MDB+ because they are usually the most random.

But that makes them the worst cards for SAP - at least the way we currently use SAP.

But it makes them the best cards for net betting - at least the safest form of net betting which is U1D2M2 - Perhaps 2Hi, which we could play at table min. or even at the same stakes we are playing MDB+.

That would start us right out at play 2. There is no point in waiting any longer when net betting.

I'm thinking we should still quit at a total of +5 - unless maybe we get there by play 15 which now becomes entirely possible.

This way we would be betting every hand except the first.

And we would be playing 2Hi except for the rare MDB+ 3 bet - which, BTW, should probably be a 4 bet.

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Just a point of interest...I don't play MDB or MDB+ per se (I follow the shoe)...but yesterday, I was struggling a bit (the Bias's were infuriatingly short)...I was still winning but it was bloody hard work. I was tracking 4 shoes at a time via video screens and decided to give MDB+ a whirl at the same time (3's only because they are so easy to track and I suspect give the best odds) So...I was sorta playing a system within a system.

The upshot was that I picked up an extra 23 units for my day's play for sweet stuff all effort...It turned a so-so day into a highly successful one.

My take on yesterday's play is that the more I'm struggling to follow the Bias ...the better that MDB+ performs...it's a no brainer.

Just my 10 cents worth if it helps

Oz

At this stage...I'm thinking of continuing to play as I do...and kinda use MDB+ as "Insurance", if you get what I mean...I figure that when one method is struggling, then the other comes into it's own ...I'm guessing that both methods win in most shoes and for me it gets me over the prob of making very few bets on MDB+

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Just a point of interest...I don't play MDB or MDB+ per se (I follow the shoe)...but yesterday, I was struggling a bit (the Bias's were infuriatingly short)...I was still winning but it was bloody hard work. I was tracking 4 shoes at a time via video screens and decided to give MDB+ a whirl at the same time (3's only because they are so easy to track and I suspect give the best odds) So...I was sorta playing a system within a system.

The upshot was that I picked up an extra 23 units for my day's play for sweet stuff all effort...It turned a so-so day into a highly successful one.

My take on yesterday's play is that the more I'm struggling to follow the Bias ...the better that MDB+ performs...it's a no brainer.

Just my 10 cents worth if it helps

Oz

At this stage...I'm thinking of continuing to play as I do...and kinda use MDB+ as "Insurance", if you get what I mean...I figure that when one method is struggling, then the other comes into it's own ...I'm guessing that both methods win in most shoes and for me it gets me over the prob of making very few bets on MDB+

Funny you should say that Oz as it happens I have been playing MDB+ at 2 tables at a time multi screening for a total of 10 units per session + 1 unit to cover commission,It doesn't take to long then I am out...

PS. I am using a 123 prog.

Lou.

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My take on yesterday's play is that the more I'm struggling to follow the Bias ...the better that MDB+ performs...it's a no brainer.

Oz

You said a mouthful right there Oz!

So you were playing on line and therefore REGULAR cards. We see the biggest biases in regular cards but not always. Sometimes they have no lasting biases at all. NOR or MDB beats biases. MDB+ beats a lack of bias (random). What makes one NOT work is exactly what makes the other work. You've got them coming and going. Good thinking, as usual!

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Funny you should say that Oz as it happens I have been playing MDB+ at 2 tables at a time multi screening for a total of 10 units per session + 1 unit to cover commission,It doesn't take to long then I am out...

PS. I am using a 123 prog.

Lou.

Lou, would you please keep track of your hit rate on your 3 bets only. You lost the 3 because the shoe produced 5 of an event (or 6 if you're reacting to 2s) W/O producing one of its neighboring events.

I'm trying to figure out if we should be betting a 124 prog with MDB+. Especially in new preshuffled cards. Or maybe on the 3rd bet we should bet whatever we need to hit +5.

Probably most shoes you won't even get to a 3rd bet. Those shoes you win +5 automatically.

Even when we win a 3 we just used up 3 bets with nothing to show for it. We likely used up too many bets to get to +5. UNLESS we cheat!

But suppose we get to a 3 bet in half our shoes and suppose our hit rate on the 3rd bet is 75%.

And suppose we bet whatever we need to hit +5. I think that would mean we hit +5 in 87.5% of our shoes if my math is right. That would get us to a million dollars pretty darn fast!

That reminds me: I got to thinking last night. Norm's 60 Vegas shoes he posted: He averaged 6 units per shoe and he was playing $5000 units.

That is 1.8 million dollars right there. Hmm, no wonder he was so worried about getting barred from MGM!

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You said a mouthful right there Oz!

So you were playing on line and therefore REGULAR cards. We see the biggest biases in regular cards but not always. Sometimes they have no lasting biases at all. NOR or MDB beats biases. MDB+ beats a lack of bias (random). What makes one NOT work is exactly what makes the other work. You've got them coming and going. Good thinking, as usual!

Hi Ellis...methinks that you grabbed hold of the wrong end of the stick (quaint Aussie expression)...I was playing at a bricks and mortar casino. It's just that quite a few Casinos now offer monitored "Live Dealers"...which cuts down on the number of Dealers required ...which cuts down on wages (as if the bastards aren't making enough money)

The way it works, is that several Tables are roped off from the general public, but still in full view and cameras send the live feed to a bank of monitors which can be viewed on the "big screen" and each player has his own computer with the same view but also has an attachment which allows quick and easy viewing of up to 4 separate tables at a time. They are all finger touch screens (no mouse required) and bets are super easy to place... and the games are quick (partly due to there being no interaction with the players)

The advantages are many...it is a normal game...I can see the dealer for real (no funny business)...the unit size can be as low as $10 and as high as $5000...no bugger has a clue what size bets you are laying or if you are winning big (which means that I don't have the shit bugged out of me by other players trying to follow me)...and this is a "BIGGIE"... YOU CAN MAKE AS MANY OR AS FEW BETS AS YOU LIKE!

In their quest to make even higher profits ...the casinos have actually made it far easier for those who know what they are doing (BTC Members) to win.

It also means that despite placing so few bets and limiting your take to 5 or 6 units per game...that you can play as I do... up to 4 tables at a time and even if you reduced your get out to +2 or +3 units a game ...that you can still expect to win between 8 to 12 units an hour. (It's the way of the future I guess)

BTW:In my experience we are dealing mostly with new pre-shuffled cards

Oz

BTW: There is one major disadvantage...It is a "BATSHIT" boring way to play...but "HEY"...it's a living...LOL

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All good thoughts guys! I was also pondering the MDB+ situation:

With MDB+ the idea is to raise the stakes quickly - perhaps 5 units in the next denomination. So after 2 successful +5 shoes or 3 mediocre shoes we would go from say $100 units to $200 units. My point is that we won't be playing at table min very long. Plus we are often waiting quite a while to start - often 20 hands or more before we get 3 2s or 2 3s or 2 4s.

New preshuffled cards (Vegas touch games) are probably the best cards for MDB+ because they are usually the most random.

But that makes them the worst cards for SAP - at least the way we currently use SAP.

But it makes them the best cards for net betting - at least the safest form of net betting which is U1D2M2 - Perhaps 2Hi, which we could play at table min. or even at the same stakes we are playing MDB+.

That would start us right out at play 2. There is no point in waiting any longer when net betting.

p

I'm thinking we should still quit at a total of +5 - unless maybe we get there by play 15 which now becomes entirely possible.

This way we would be betting every hand except the first.

And we would be playing 2Hi except for the rare MDB+ 3 bet - which, BTW, should probably be a 4 bet.

Thanks Ellis,

I was wondering on the net betting if you were thinking PvB or OvR or exactly what you think would give us the best net betting situation.

Thanks,

Jim

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Thanks Ellis,

I was wondering on the net betting if you were thinking PvB or OvR or exactly what you think would give us the best net betting situation.

Thanks,

Jim

I was pondering the same thing last night:

PvB is right there on the tote board in most casinos.

OvR we could easily keep an OR count. Most do anyway.

We want to play whichever is closest even if we switch mid shoe.

And if they are both about the same, PvB automatically beats ZZ runs so common in preshuffled cards.

My experience is that they BOTH run pretty close in preshuffled cards depending on how old the cards are.

We want a count that is crisscrossing 0 or hovering close.

And That decides what progression we use:

A very close count we can use U1D1M2

A sloppier count we should use U1D2M2

The M2 helps us out on ST runs.

Then the question becomes how high do we let our bets go? 2Hi? 3Hi/ 4Hi/ or more

The closer the count we are playing the higher we can let our bets go.

But I'm thinking a 3 bet is high enough.

That means our highest entry is 5 vs a 2 or 4 vs a 1

Playing PvB, that beats 1's, 2s and 3s and breaks even on 4s

But I'm open to suggestions

But for instance on a $25 table we could be net betting at $25 while betting MDB+ at $100

So when we get to +4 net betting we quit because that gives us an extra $100 unit.

On the other hand if the PvB count is hovering 0 as it so often is with preshuffled cards???

We'll be wishing we had been betting $100 units.

With a hovering count, net betting can get to +10 pretty easy.

All food for thought.

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Hi Ellis...methinks that you grabbed hold of the wrong end of the stick (quaint Aussie expression)...I was playing at a bricks and mortar casino. It's just that quite a few Casinos now offer monitored "Live Dealers"...which cuts down on the number of Dealers required ...which cuts down on wages (as if the bastards aren't making enough money)

The way it works, is that several Tables are roped off from the general public, but still in full view and cameras send the live feed to a bank of monitors which can be viewed on the "big screen" and each player has his own computer with the same view but also has an attachment which allows quick and easy viewing of up to 4 separate tables at a time. They are all finger touch screens (no mouse required) and bets are super easy to place... and the games are quick (partly due to there being no interaction with the players)

The advantages are many...it is a normal game...I can see the dealer for real (no funny business)...the unit size can be as low as $10 and as high as $5000...no bugger has a clue what size bets you are laying or if you are winning big (which means that I don't have the shit bugged out of me by other players trying to follow me)...and this is a "BIGGIE"... YOU CAN MAKE AS MANY OR AS FEW BETS AS YOU LIKE!

In their quest to make even higher profits ...the casinos have actually made it far easier for those who know what they are doing (BTC Members) to win.

It also means that despite placing so few bets and limiting your take to 5 or 6 units per game...that you can play as I do... up to 4 tables at a time and even if you reduced your get out to +2 or +3 units a game ...that you can still expect to win between 8 to 12 units an hour. (It's the way of the future I guess)

BTW:In my experience we are dealing mostly with new pre-shuffled cards

Oz

BTW: There is one major disadvantage...It is a "BATSHIT" boring way to play...but "HEY"...it's a living...LOL

Ha, OK Oz. Yes, I'm familiar with that set up.

Given that arrangement, I see no reason for the casino to create down time to change the cards since no one other than the dealer has touched them.

So every game dealt from the same shoe should be pretty much the same as the last shoe or the last time that color was dealt.

Do they use two different card colors?

What happens when a shoe ends?

I'm guessing a second shoe is ready to go???

Or they could be using a continuous shuffle machine so that a shoe never ends ???

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Hi Ellis,

Here's the report you ask for on the third bet results:

Total 3 Bets = 40

3 Bets Won = 28

3 Bets Lost = 12

All of these bets were made Online with regular cards and the vast majority were made with the OLD rules.

Regards Lou.

OK Lou. Thanks for a great report!

Guys, that is a 70% 3rd bet hit rate on REGULAR cards.

It will probably be slightly higher with the new rules.

And even higher in Vegas touch games!

That is based on a trial of 40.

I always use a trial of 40 for testing. These trials of 100,000 that you see are a waste of time.

My 30 years of testing shows conclusively that results don't change significantly after a trial of 40.

A 70% hit rate on 3rd bets with regular cards is about what I expected.

And I expect about 75% on new preshuffled.

This demonstrates that Golfgirl was right ! as strange as that may seem.

I'm hoping to meet this boyfriend of hers. I suspect he has been whispering in her ear. Not the stuff boyfriends usually whisper.

Look at what this actually means!

We've never had a 70-75% hit rate on ANYTHING! Maybe 55-56%

Nobody has ever seen such a high hit rate on any bet in gambling! Ever! Not even close!

So we are right back to Golfgirl's question: Betting 3 on the 3rd bet merely breaks us even on our 123 prog. Why are we only betting to break even?????????????

Why indeed!

And that brings us right back to MY question:

Since the 3rd bet has such a high hit rate, WHY don't we bet whatever we need to bet to hit +5? Game over!

That gives us +5 in about 87% of all shoes! So maybe we hit -6 or -7 in 12% of our shoes.

Big Whip! Who cares what happens in 12 or 13% of our shoes as long as it's reasonable.

+5 in 87% of our shoes is worth a million dollars!

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I was pondering the same thing last night:

PvB is right there on the tote board in most casinos.

OvR we could easily keep an OR count. Most do anyway.

We want to play whichever is closest even if we switch mid shoe.

And if they are both about the same, PvB automatically beats ZZ runs so common in preshuffled cards.

My experience is that they BOTH run pretty close in preshuffled cards depending on how old the cards are.

We want a count that is crisscrossing 0 or hovering close.

And That decides what progression we use:

A very close count we can use U1D1M2

A sloppier count we should use U1D2M2

The M2 helps us out on ST runs.

Then the question becomes how high do we let our bets go? 2Hi? 3Hi/ 4Hi/ or more

The closer the count we are playing the higher we can let our bets go.

But I'm thinking a 3 bet is high enough.

That means our highest entry is 5 vs a 2 or 4 vs a 1

Playing PvB, that beats 1's, 2s and 3s and breaks even on 4s

But I'm open to suggestions

But for instance on a $25 table we could be net betting at $25 while betting MDB+ at $100

So when we get to +4 net betting we quit because that gives us an extra $100 unit.

On the other hand if the PvB count is hovering 0 as it so often is with preshuffled cards???

We'll be wishing we had been betting $100 units.

With a hovering count, net betting can get to +10 pretty easy.

All food for thought.

I don't want to derail or interject any discussion on net betting. I'm just trying to help. There was a random post, Ellis that you sent out about a year ago for playing pre-shuffled cards. I can't seem to find the post right now - I'll send it when I find it... I know I have it saved somewhere. It involved playing U1D1 on the dominant side of PvB in the last 5 hands (but not switching on an opposite to avoid losing to ZZ runs).

I've been playing this way exclusively for a while now and have had good success. Works well in preshuffled cards. This or some version of this might be good to combine MDB+ with.

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