Users brad01 Posted September 11, 2016 Users Report Share Posted September 11, 2016 Hi guys I have this idea that I will post a partial shoe and then members can try and predict the next hand based on shoe history The next day I will post the result and also whether I won or lost People can discuss what they think the result will be and the reasoning behind it Other members can do the same thing This will be a great way to get other players thoughts and insights into decisions Here is the first one: B21121231611312142611214 (unconfirmed 4 - banker) Well my thoughts on the next decision is bankers outweigh players by 4 so bankers are slightly stronger Also there are a few long runs already with 2 x 6iar and one of those was a banker run So I know long runs are possible - however if you look at the average length of events it is about 4iar and we are at an unconfirmed 4iar so possible this run could end at 4 BUT the current bias in the shoe is banker SS as far as I am concerned due to the 1's on the player side and the banker multiples - 1214 To me its in the favour of a BANKER based on previous history of long runs and current bias of banker SS I bet banker - was I correct? I will post result tomorrow Lets call this Sample #1 Feel free to comment on this and if anyone wants to add a sample then speak up and you can do so tomorrow when I post the results to this. That way we present 1 per day and discuss it and then the next day post the result and present a new one. Lets run it like this Any comments regarding thoughts on Sample #1 is welcome. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XDN Posted September 12, 2016 Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 (edited) This is a good idea, and even we choose wrong, it's a good way we can learn and share our knowledge. bb pb pp b pp bbb pbbbbbb pb ppp b pp b pppp bb pppppp b pbb pbbbb? >>>> P (Actually i'd probably not bet as it's ambiguous to me) 1. There have been 2 6's but the banker 6 was in the first 1/2 of the shoe. 2. A single player followed by banker(s) (bold text) has been inconsistent in the shoe 2 PBs 1PBB and 1PBBBBBB. Single player followed by single banker = 50% of the post single player events. Single Player followed by BB = 25% of the post single player events and Single player followed by 6 bankers is the other 25% of post single player events. So the only evidence we have (going on Oz's "if I don't see it I don't play it") is the single player going to 6 banker but with no 5 bankers and that the 6 bankers happened in the first 1/2 of the shoe that may make the "going to 6" play weaker. 3. While banker is ahead in the shoe, if we split the shoe in half (underlined) Player has dominated the last 1/2 of the shoe P14 B10, (2 single players are hard to ignore however with the Norm/Oz SS is the strongest biase rule) To me, it's ambiguous, I would probably not bet but if I had to, i'd probably take player as player is stronger in the last 1/2 of this shoe and we have to win 2 more bets to get to that banker 6. If we had a banker 5 or a PBBBBB i'd jump on the banker too. Edited September 12, 2016 by XDotNet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 12, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 Yes it does not matter a loss or a win what matters is that we learn by this process and we get some insights into how people think about decisions etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XDN Posted September 12, 2016 Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 (edited) Brad could you do a big favor for me? I'm working on something and need a blind check against a shoe I know nothing about. Since you posted the 1st half of your shoe this is a great chance for me to check something. Thank you! Can you tell me how the following bet sequence would do after bbbb? N=No Bet 21. Your Shoe (B21121231611312142611214) NNNPPBBBPBP <<<< I would like to check this series against the next plays 22. Your Shoe (B21121231611312142611214) NNNPPBBNPBP <<<< I would like to check this series against the next plays Edited September 12, 2016 by XDotNet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pando Posted September 12, 2016 Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 if I had to bet it would be Player Player runs are stronger in this part of the shoe (4's and 6's), bankers are weak 1's and 2's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 12, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 Thanks for the replies and thoughts Possibly a screen shot of the shoe would help in this exercise as just events sometimes make it harder to visualise I will do that later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted September 12, 2016 Users Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 (edited) Provided that I wrote it down correctly...there is only one option...The only bet to make is B OTR SS. As I see it, almost the whole shoe is a piss easy SS shoe that swaps sides a few times and it plays itself. +10 Flatbetting and +19 using the 1 2 Loop B may not win...but it is the only bet that you could possibly make. I'm sorry people...but you are making this shoe way too complicated. Norm would have creamed his pants when he saw this shoe and walked away with a cool $95K less commission at this stage Think about it...What did Norm say about SS? Edited September 12, 2016 by ECD 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted September 12, 2016 Users Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 If I happen to have incorrectly transcribed the shoe... I will of course be using the "Ellis hacked my Account" defence which is kinda up there with "the dog ate my homework" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baccarat Hall of Fame Member wolfat Posted September 12, 2016 Baccarat Hall of Fame Member Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 my decision is a NO BET here but if I need to bet I'd go B. My choice would have been to bet OTR after 3Bs as B side has mostly 2s. A Quote bacclover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BacPlayer Posted September 12, 2016 Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 I would have bet 1 unit on B as its SS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 12, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 12, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 Good to have a visual of it as it makes it clearer to see and as you would see it live I will leave it until this evening (my time) and then post result All comments are welcome and the point is not to be wrong or right but more so the reasoning behind what you think A no bet can be a valid bet if you feel that's best too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nikolasyue Posted September 13, 2016 Report Share Posted September 13, 2016 (edited) Hey Brad great idea posting the shoe and withholding the outcome and Oz is this about how you would've played the shoe; where'd you get the extra bet for +10 mate? I didn't enter the shoe until B was ahead by 3 and suspended my betting when I lost 3 of my last 4 bets due to a 2 or more on the weakside following a single 1 on strongside like h20-23 and h41-44, thanks. Edited September 13, 2016 by nikolasyue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 13, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 13, 2016 Hi well the next 2 results were BB - 2 bankers Unfortunately I did not go past that point because my aim was to win 1 or 2 units before I had to start work. The next one I may use a roulette tote board to predict the next result with red / black A lot of pure bacc players may be interested to see the similarities and in fact many times roulette biases are easier to pick and win with in my opinion I have never lost a session of hit and run roulette where I cruise the tables look at a tote board and make a decision based on that which is why I titled this HIT AND RUN Hey I might even be able to convince Oz to start playing roulette! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted September 14, 2016 Users Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 (edited) 12 hours ago, nikolasyue said: Hey Brad great idea posting the shoe and withholding the outcome and Oz is this about how you would've played the shoe; where'd you get the extra bet for +10 mate? I didn't enter the shoe until B was ahead by 3 and suspended my betting when I lost 3 of my last 4 bets due to a 2 or more on the weakside following a single 1 on strongside like h20-23 and h41-44, thanks. Not much difference in the way I played it. I started earlier than you with S40, but was still even stevens when the SS kicked in. H35 I risked one more bet on Player because the SS was very definite with a ratio of 10 to 5 and a weak OT confirming. If I was playing the Loop...it would have been a Probe bet or Flatbetting sizeable units...I would more than likely bet a half unit because my unit count is only +4. Not a lot of difference in the way you played the rest of the shoe (swings and roundabouts)...and if you had continued SSB you would have picked up another 2 units... +11 Flat betting...a shoe that almost plays itself and never looks like going negative?...You gotta be happy with that. Edited September 14, 2016 by ECD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted September 14, 2016 Users Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 10 hours ago, brad01 said: Hi well the next 2 results were BB - 2 bankers Unfortunately I did not go past that point because my aim was to win 1 or 2 units before I had to start work. The next one I may use a roulette tote board to predict the next result with red / black A lot of pure bacc players may be interested to see the similarities and in fact many times roulette biases are easier to pick and win with in my opinion I have never lost a session of hit and run roulette where I cruise the tables look at a tote board and make a decision based on that which is why I titled this HIT AND RUN Hey I might even be able to convince Oz to start playing roulette! Hmm...You just never know...LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nikolasyue Posted September 14, 2016 Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 Ok, thanks for further clarifying the thought process on your bets Oz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 14, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 Sample #2 Roulette Red Black: BB R BBB R BBBB R That's what the tote board showed Betting Red / Black anyone have any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted September 14, 2016 Users Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 (edited) I've never played roulette so I don't know if the bias works the same. If Roulette can have a SS...then the only bet is Black, but I stand to be corrected. Edited September 14, 2016 by ECD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 14, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 all I will say at this point is I doubt you will find much difference playing even money roulette as compared to bacc - you may even find It easier On a European wheel red and black alternate around the wheel so its a pure 50 / 50 random all around the wheel High and low the same Odd and even do not alternate around the wheel - there are OO's and EE's at points around the wheel Doubt it really makes much difference though I will post result tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 15, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 15, 2016 Result was black black ss Sample #3 roulette red black: BB RRR B R B R B R what was next results or what would you bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trillion Posted September 15, 2016 Report Share Posted September 15, 2016 Looks like the results are chopping, therefore I would be betting on BLACK, although it is SS on Red and Oz has said that strong side is 100 times stronger than S40 the chop. But not sure about this on playing roulette, only playing baccarat has the strong side been proven. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 16, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 Hi there trillion I believe you will not find much difference playing even money roulette than playing bacc The same principles apply And that goes for all 50/50 games I believe I am trying to convert Oz and I think he may just be interested For my analysis of this short sequence the 23 is an OTBL section but without knowing what was before it which I don't its hard to say whether it was OTBL or Red SS as you say Moving forward though the S40 / Opposite trend is pretty clear and I don't believe there is any other choice but to go with that I would also bet black looking at this from an outside point of view I will post the next 3 results in the sequence tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted September 16, 2016 Users Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 7 hours ago, trillion said: Looks like the results are chopping, therefore I would be betting on BLACK, although it is SS on Red and Oz has said that strong side is 100 times stronger than S40 the chop. But not sure about this on playing roulette, only playing baccarat has the strong side been proven. LOL...It wasn't me that said that, but the man himself...Norm Allen RIP. I actually took some convincing, but now I'm a SS convert. Interesting to note that I played 120 spins of roulette yesterday and SS smashed it. It's a small sample but bears further investigation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted September 16, 2016 Author Users Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 And I actually heard that Norm used to play and win at roulette as well...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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