kachatz1

Not sure if you need a different password to access the Vegas Forum, so I'll post these shoes here Both from Green Valley Ranch down in Henderson, a quick drive from Las Vegas. Part of the Station Casinos " family" B1112111112242131121353313127 Biggest thing was switch from O leadership first 25 hands, or so, to big second half swing to Repeats...also caught a nice MDB bet ( rule 4) at the end of shoe... B1112112121212131121631222212231212112 Huge 4D compatible shoe with O, OTBL and TT all with impressive margins over their counterpart...Pretty good NOR shoe as well 5-2's, then later 6-2's before a 3 left me limping a bit... But, did win the single Dragon bonus bet I played (40-1), and I rarely do this because casino odds are so low to win any one D7 bet... Here's what happened: Four hands previous resulted in B/P hands scored as 6/7, 7/1, 0/7, and 6/7... So I figured WTF, and bet $25 on the D7.bonus bet ( 3- card 7 Banker win) Result was B7/P6...2-10 cards and a 7 on Banker hand! Not saying this was a great percentage bet...but since I keep track of each hands' " score", this just seemed to make sense... BTW, I also bet tie on the same hand ( and lost), because so many ties are either 6-6 or 7-7, and the three hands before the four I cited above played out as follows...8/6, 7/1 and 6/2...lots of 6's and 7's all clustered together... Ok, got to go do some real work...good luck out there!

OMG I had a dream earlier this evening ( it's 3:46 am in Vegas), and in my dream some aliens walked right through my front door, never bothering to ring the bell or knock... They asked me some questions about 4D, never threatening, just inquisitive...so I knew they weren't CasinoCops, from a place far, far away. So I answered 'em, and they managed to let themselves out... Here's two shoes from the RED ROCK, played last 24 hours...and this is what I told them... P1221123721311132121151212311312 B1353221111231111621111211112221213312 If anyone thinks the OO/TT count does not matter, or is too much trouble keeping track of, so be it. Could have " beat" either shoe with NOR, you just gotta know... ( and this is when they left, because they already could read my mind) You just gotta know when to " shift gears", and in both shoes, playing 4D, the OO/TT count was just as important as the P/B , O/R, OTBL/TBL counts... Look, I learned to drive on a " stick -shift" '64 VW Beetle. Took my Driver's License test in it. Not so tough going downhill, pretty much like an automatic...you are all used to that, right? But going uphill, and sitting at a traffic light,wanting to make sure you don't " back into" the car behind you, or you don't know how to use " the clutch" to hold your car steady? Now THAT is just like Baccarat... And just thinking out loud, but if Heiman Schmedlap shows up in tomorrow night's dream, looking like Colonel Klink from Hogan's Heroes, and he's asking me about 5D, do you really think I'll be surprised? Nope. ( and YES, those are real shoes...)

Hey, PM Good to hear your business doing well... I can barely produce a spreadsheet, but I have run enough businesses to know there are people who EXCEL at that, and those who are better off setting strategic and implementing tactical inititiatives to get things done... This forum has the chance to be the innovator who gets it done. Keith is a smart guy, and with everyone's help and encouragement, he just might could pull it off ( that's " Southern" , meaning if he wants to he will, if he doesn't want to, he won't)

We all know what plan B is. The best jockey chooses his horse.

Valid question. And of course, anything can happen. And Keith could " sell" his services to a casino, like Wizard of Odds owner did. Who could blame him? No different than one of your key employees leaves and joins your largest competitor. No different than Ceasar had to worry everyday about who might try to poison him No different than Judas. This kind of behavior has always gone on, always will. Anyone bothered by the myriad of possibilities likely won't feel comfortable... Thinking Allstate sometimes drops the ball, despite their " good hands promise" Never did receive a piece of that rock Prudential always led me to believe I could own. And all the gold in Fort Knox would hardly pay our country's bills for more than a couple of months, if that. Not saying we " must do this" , just suggesting that even if some kid in a dark room loaded all the shoes into some kind of spreadsheet, sortable by who knows how many parameters, and we were led to believe he was The Wizard, likely we'd still get better intel than if we just keep on thinking we know it all. Agree with your concern, Maxmillion. I think it's legitimate. Forum is at a critical junction, if Keith decides he wants to keep it going. He has a chance to make it much better than ever, but has no responsibility to change or " do anything" It's his forum...we'll find out soon enough! In the meantime, there's always Plan B...

This is a perfect example of another member lending not just their ear, but their mouth to the discussion. I am not a techie. I can hardly keep my iPhone working. But I do have a pretty good idea of what works, what can be done. More importantly, Ellis' break from the forum seems the ideal time for Keith to decide " what's next" Or he may decide, it's just too much work, and sail off into the sunset.... Nobody should blame him if that's what he decides. Like Sigmund & Roy break up, and who gets custody of the Tigers? Or somebody tells Custer, " Hey, this was your idea...not mine" This forum could realistically soon lose its " center" , the thing which brought us back everyday, to sneak-a-peek at what was going on. And while Keith and Stephen, or whomever they engage to keep the dialogue going, can perhaps find a way to generate a heightened sense of awareness, plain and simple, it takes a " personality" , someone who people trust to be " in the know" about all things Baccarat ( or Blackjack) to keep customers coming in the front door, and continued evidence that the warranty offered to prior customers ( lifetime access) will be honored. Billy Mays, the consummate TV product spokesperson is, sadly, no longer available . Steve Irwin, of Crocodile Hunter fame, is regrettably no longer under consideration... No sounding of the alarm here, but the forum is at an "inflexion point", and like any business, it's owner(s) could decide they should come forward to clearly restate its mission, it's goals, it's objectives and how they plan to meet them... Or not, and perhaps we'll all drift off to another place.... So, I again ask the question..." What happens when there is no more Ellis"? I have offered up just one possible idea. Brad01 works tirelessly to address newbies concerns, around the globe Way2fast has expanded on it, and made it better. Ruebel is like Timex, he just keeps on ticking... But maybe there is a Baccarat Steve Harvey out there, or a Natural 9 Vanna White, who can keep us tuned in? No matter what, somebody has got to answer those questions newbies are likely to ask daily, or soon there will be no more newcomers... And virtually every business dies , when they no longer can attract new customers. I hope this isn't one of them... And if you think I am ringing the bell " unnecessarily, or even prematurely", I invite you to come forward and stick your finger in the dike as well... Remember. It's your forum, too.

So here was my pitch to Keith. He is far more the IT type than me, but I think I am pretty tuned in to what our members really need/want to make informed decisions, playing regularly But I caution...it would cost money, some kind of recurring monthly fee... Players want INFORMATION, up-to-date and accurate. Players have access to shoes they have played all over the world, and could easily " feed " this info into the forum...or a separate , "custom designed "program" that would add their current data into an established database . We start with a handful of shoes. Daily, more are added. " sort parameters are built in" , like location, date, etc. Private members could then submit real-time " questions" into the database to test/evaluate their casino conditions, their casino results against a much larger " universe" of current data, " sortable" from an ever-growing data base of shoes played/encountered/observed. No longer do we assume Vegas shoes no longer are NOR incompatible, just because we are told they are not ( PS...many of them still are) No longer do we wonder whether waiting for 2IAR, 3IAR or some other number of events to establish a " trigger" point for a system like MDB makes sense, or not....we have real data No longer do we have to decide if the O/R count is more relevant in Vegas, or Singapore...or should we be looking harder at OTBL in a given location? OK! I know it sounds like " baccarat sci-fi", but as the database grows, each successive entry makes it stronger/ more reliable... Would you be willing to pay a monthly fee to have direct, private access to this info??? And how much? Me, I'd readily pay $50, or even $100 a month for access to this kind of system...just a few $25 bets a month!!! Or am I dreaming? ( or more likely, who will get there first? ) This is well within current techno -boundaries... This forum would overnight become the dominant force in Baccarat But, Would it be worth it? Just some ruminations on this Thursday evening... Hoping some of you are luminaries, rocket-scientists or even just average-baccarat-Joes/Janes and would a few minutes and respond with your thoughts on the subject... Think Pie-in-the-sky... WHAT IF.... Where do we collectively want to be ...3 months, 6 months, a year from now??? Me? I want to put a million $$ in the rear-view mirror... And I want that for you.

Hey, John. It ain't no Aria or MGM, and Ceaser's and Palazzo " stadium BAC" ( play 4 games at once with live dealers) seem safe for the moment... But table selection great. Certainly will not accommodate the highest echelon of MDB. But you want to go trolling for bet opportunities, table selection...it surprised me... Good luck to you, and I've heard the second mil is EZier.. Be well! Kevin

Here's two shoes from the Mandalay Bay, played earlier today. Note how close the Disparities rarely differed much throughout the whole shoe, for both shoes, start to finish! P/B O/R OTBL/TBL OO/TT Shoe 1 - P13212114113111541242123111142228 Some 2 - P12311411321411211421115215413214 Playing 5D, a small 1-1.5-2 progression worked nicely, then just went to flat betting in both shoes about 1/2 way in when I saw what was happening... Net betting would have done well ( except for the last event in both shoes)...U1D1M2 as well ( except final event). Left for lunch at Red Rock, and found a " clumped" Double Deck BJ shoe, picked up some more and headed for meet-up group happy hour event... ( after all, it was a happy day)

Here's one from Palace Station yesterday...never played there before...was amazed for a Station Casino, so many tables, and they even had 6 tables opened @ 10:30 am and another 4-6 in the same pit... Thinking this is the most tables of any Station Casino... Only played about 60% of this shoe......a weird scenario as someone thought he was being discriminated against because they insisted he only play one table, and not go back-and-forth between tables...security should have been called, and I left before things got out of hand... P73123313122126122 Very low in 1-IAR's...picked up on this and was betting repeats...then nice MDB spot bet on 22126 , coupled with the commotion described above, told me it was time to exit... Have to go back there, since so many tables to choose from and reasonable min/max limits for players... Good luck!

BaccDJ TB4LM2/3 4-5 years ago, the dawning of the Age of Aquarius was long in our rear-view mirror, but everyday discussions of to TBL, or not to TBL, now that was still a question ...

BDJ learning what we all have had to to to survive... Two hardest things in a casino: Quit when you're losing. Quit when you're winning. The part about the TBL comment SHOULD NOT be overlooked...originally, many of us learned NOR without it... That's why it eventually got added in....even though S40 and F might have seemed to take care of things, getting in on TBL " tells" early helps you get in on both 1111111 biases, 212121 and 121212 patterns, and long, frequent streaks even mid shoe, and ride them if they continue, or get off when the horse gets winded... TBL " methods" been around a long, long time..... Likely the Steve-ster covering this well in NOR boot camps, for those of us just joined the baccarat militia, and those of us trying to hold out for 20 years...

While on the subject of Vegas shoes...here are some back from mid-March to mid -April 2015 Regurgitating this post so those of you want/need practice shoes, whether for NOR or MDB , or some other thing you like to play... Only a few months old, these are the real thing... For those of you still newer to the forum,a suggestion might help you is to " transcribe" each one onto a clean scorecard, and examine how best to approach with NOR, and how best to search out/be alert to the MDB triggers ( way2fast rules) ...Lots of shoes will exhibit NOR-loving biases, and still give you MDB opportunities as well...and some go back-and-forth, seeming to " change" while you are trying to play them Wherever YOU play, other players would likely be interested in seeing some recent shoes from your part of the world... Good Luck! Kevin

Brad likely warrants sainthood, or, at minimum a Merit Badge, for his timeless efforts to keep the discussion going. Uncertainty we all harbor in our mind is ( talking to the Casino) " What Have You Done For Me Lately"? Important? YES A New Day Dawning? Hardly Something we could examine/ look at? And precisely " the rules of engagement"? Well, that is something I sent to Keith, and not sure what he will do with it...

Hey, Andrea Sorry to learn of your loss...thinking you must have endured a lot. As for the card explanation, thanks a million, Trillion for chiming in! You are spot on... ( hopefully, forum members who are not as experienced will benefit from it) As for the OTBL/O/R thing, yes it is really just a simple, EZ to play method...been around a long, long time I get a lot of questions about 4D, and many people I talk to ask me for a " simpler" way to play Baccarat, without " keeping track" of events, a scorecard, etc. No system, really...just it's a bit more than simply staring at the tote board It's particularly " effective" at a casino with a lot of tables, where you can move easily from table-to-table, spot " opportunistic plays", make a bet and move on.... Once you understand the simple " math of the game" ( which I know you do!), it's very EZ to look at the tote board and make a bet. And since our forum is pretty much made up of NOR, SAP and MDB players, I think most everybody here understands what I mean... Hope this answers your question?

Well, I get by with a little help from my friends... BTC member here in Vegas gave me this laminated card a few months back, and I came across it yesterday in one of my " banker's boxes" full of shoes I have played, BAC manuals, etc... Called Dennis and asked his permission to give it to you.... And James uploaded it for me... Whole thing is laminated card, approx. 3" by 7"... We often " talk about" the math-of-the game (frequency of 1-IAR's, 2-IAR's, etc...) Is the shoe biased ?( NOR) Or random? ( MDB) And over literally hundreds of posts, across a number of threads, we have come to learn HOW CRITICAL THIS INFORMATION can be to your Baccarat success. Or failure. You simply have to understand the math of the game, or you likely will never set foot in the Winner's Circle... So thanks to Mr. DF, a member of this forum, here is your own personal " cheat sheet" Across the top, the number of hands played in the shoe, so far... Down the left hand margin, the " normal" frequency of events for 1-IAR, 2-IAR, etc which would " in a perfect world" have taken place by that point in the shoe...( example, after 45 hands, 2.8 -3's IAR) At the bottom, " how often" over a million++ shoes, the frequency of events will occur, whether by hands played in a " NORMAL" shoe, or over a greater number of shoes... ( remember, TIES don't count , so just round up or down to the nearest whole number...) Wow. Your own personal, Baccarat " pocket protector". No more SAP Counting. Helpful for NOR players, Or MDB disciples. At-a-glance, you can compare your current shoe's " tendencies" with that which you might expect from a " perfect, normal shoe" Oh, lest I forget, there are no " perfect" shoes. There are no " normal shoes" But everything we have been taught , everything we have learned about pattern recognition, everything we know about NOR, SAP, MDB, etc is based on these concepts Before, it might have been confusing. Now, it's right here for you, plain and simple. BYOB Bring Your Own Beatdown ( cheat sheet) to the casino. A picture is worth a thousand words... Thanks, DF ( and James)... You have just contributed to the bankroll of a whole lot of people...

( Bring Your Own Beatdown) Hoping someone will call me and "walk me through" something. 850-687-3128 ( PST time zone) I have something given to me by a fellow BTC member, and I want to share it with you. Never could figure out how to post a " picture of something" here, but MOST DEFINITELY , am absolutely certain EVERYONE will benefit from it. So I am determined to get this done. It is really pretty amazing, but you have to " see it to believe it". So simple, and yet so helpful. A picture is worth a thousand words kind of thing... No matter what system you use, this belongs in your Baccarat toolbox. Sooner, not later. Whether you live in Sydney or SanFrancisco, San Juan or Singapore, you'll benefit from this... Thanks in advance... Kevin

G Never Ever Is a long time Hope we are " collectively" focusing on your next casino outing... And not much more... We win, " that" it's all good,.. We win again, it's even Better. This forum is about showing you the best possibilities to win. But they are just mathematical possibilities. Shoe is " trending" NOR, bet it. Shoe is " trending " MDB, bet it. You want to put the two together? You might surmise , it couldn't be done. I get it. ( but it could be) And will..... Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water.. ( Actually? More common is " I can't figure this out...HELP!" ( or is it Yelp???) Help is where we help each other solve the puzzle. Yelp is where you are free to comment on same. So, which one are you interested in?

Pauld- My own experience " suggests" that counts for 4D, whether: P/B O/R OTBL/TBL OO/TT Resulting in a range of +2/-2 Would indicate for that particular indicator an OTBL bet next hand. B.U.T., the other 3 indicators outside of the narrow range of +2/-2 might indicate a bet on the other side... I have no long range empirical, hard-and-fast statistical evidence would support yours, or my experience. I can only say that it works for me, enough times more than it doesn't, that I am compelled to " keep doing it" Yet, in the wide,wide world of casinos worldwide, certainly my sample size is too small, and won't work all situations/all casinos/all shoes.... ( Even though it has worked wonders for me for several years now...preshuffled cards or 8 decks of newbies) Which is why ULTIMATELY we might want to move such discussions on this forum into the realm of the digital age, where theories, ideas, " just thinking" could be proven/dis-proven to be of value across a wide range of casinos, a large number of shoes... Not sure, but I think too many of us seek to be spoiled by the " quick and dirty " ( aka SIMPLE) answer, when no real evidence exists ? Is there truly a one-size-fits-all " Baccarat Nirvana" ?? NOT. Just my thoughts. Computer model, actual testing will be something for the Keithster to consider, but know that it would come with a price-to-be-paid... Again, Plain and Simple. If we want " evidence" how/why/where/when something " works" , or even THAT IT REALLY DOES WORK ( or not) We'd have to be willing to pay for same... But if we confined our quest to just a couple of " systems" and relied on same to " improve" those couple of systems, perhaps it would be within our reach... More evidence, more confidence. More confidence, more focused betting. More focused betting strategy, higher win % Even Captain Kirk would agree. PRICELESS.

All- I've got Good news and Bad news. First, the Bad news. Ellis is gone, and sooner than my Custer/Benjamin Franklin/Steve Jobs analogy post earlier in this thread might have been foreseen...even by me. Now for the Good news. I spoke at length with Keith today...in fact I spoke with 8 members who play NOR, and /or MDB as well... Keith owns the forum. Plain and Simple. BUT, WE ARE A COMMUNITY of like-minded individuals whose sole desire ,once we enter a casino, is to exit as a WINNER. Again, Plain and simple. And, Everybody I talked to today, or has posted about this situation ,( including me) wants the same thing. For this forum to go on for a long, long time. Simply too much " good stuff" we have all come to appreciate to let it go by the wayside... There's no one person likely to be "replacing" Ellis. No "stepping into his shoes" and "filling them" That would make for a foolhardy promise, with naysayers right-and-left just waiting for failure. And who could possibly write the job description? Ellis himself frequently referred to other players, other " gambling gurus"/ " system provocateurs" ( did I just say that?) from " back in the day" like Kenny Upton and Jerry Patterson, to name a few... And they all had a different approach to things. And in their own way, they were all "successful" by virtually any measure...at least until they tried to stretch things too thin... And I'm sure with Ellis out of the BTC picture, things here will likely "be different" here @ BTC as well. How soon, how fast, or when? I'm not sure...but thinking out loud: Not so many new systems More focus on what players are able to understand and implement. Continual updates and discussion of " what's working, what's not", and how to tweak an existing system to adapt to localized current "casino conditions" More organization, so easier to find the answers to those FAQ's we all have. And hopefully " Broadcast to all", not buried somewhere hard to find it if you haven't tuned in for awhile... Maybe could even entail more encouragement to all to talk about what's going on here in Las Vegas, and where YOU play. ( I play all over, so hoping Keith can re-organize the forum to address this!) This forum is important to me, so I have offered to help, address what I can, stictly from a player's perspective. Ellis was important to Keith, too, so I'm sure he wishes him well. They worked together a long time... Not sure exactly what FORM the forum will take, but after talking to Keith, I'm feeling a whole lot better! Expect some changes. Hopefully, simplification. Hopefully, in all our best interests. And most importantly, more focused on " tweaking" existing systems, rather than frequent overhauls to learn new systems and procedures all the time. Not sure what else to say for now, but you know how to reach me if I can help. Wishing you all the best. BE PATIENT , And KEEP THE FAITH! I'll update you if I learn more... Kevin

850-687-3128

KEITH and ELLIS let me be the first to pulleeze, pulleeze ask you guys to stick together! I understand you need to make a living. WE ALL understand this. Your dysfunctions, if any, relate not to content. They relate to "getting out the word"...to conversion of your disciples to TRUE BELIEVERS , which means they will spread the word for you... Both of you have been too proud to call me. Ever. And yet the answer to your dreams lays right in front of you. Arrange a conference call between the 3 of us. everything to gain. nothing to lose... Kevin 850-687-3128

oh. The party is so close to being over, I hate to be the bearer of bad news. You've all been given your chance to send Ellis your money for THE FINAL CHAPTER. Do it today, if you want my advice. There is something like about the 4th of July, something about releasing THE BIGGEST DISASTER MOVIES OF THE YEAR that weekend... This year, its THE TERMINATOR GENYSIS. and yes, Arnold is in it. Call me whatever you want, but a few days, a few weeks, or ( if you are really lucky), a few months from now this information may no longer be available... and the forum will go dark. last 28 years, I have been "invested/in-business/partners with" a whole bunch of people. You, too may have been. You, too have experienced what a wonderful partnership Keith and Ellis have enjoyed. And this is no more than a "wish", from thousands worldwide, existing and potential customers alike, that they will continue. Tell them how much you value their relationship. Ask them to continue. or...

I know some who claim they know how to play Roulette as well as you and I might play baccarat, and I have heard of some who " claim to be" professionals...but that is something I cannot attest to PM me if you want further info. Again, I have never observed their play, nor do I consider myself " educated enough" to do anything other than pass information along to you...

.. Then let me put a smile on your face, at least for now... Roulette " strategies" tend to focus on a couple of things: Bet placement ( location on the board, with one bet often encompassing several individual numbers), and the " math surrounding each bet placed, which is expressed in the payout amount " How to deal with the 0/00 wheel we usually have here in the USA ( which is why Roulette has about a 5% +/- house advantage here in the states) Dealer Signatures ( or not) ... some dealers can actually place the ball in a certain portion of the shoe...whether intentionally, or not Sector Betting ( covers such topics as dealer signatures... the size, weight and composition of the ball...the height of the partitions between the numbers...etc...) So, if that doesn't float your boat, or even if just NOW YOU UNDERSTAND that Roulette is just as subject ( likely way more!) to CasinoHouseStrategy tactics, I'm sure you'll read up on the subject, and find a " Roulette Ellis" as quickly as you can!!! Hope this might help you focus your research... And maybe save you a few bucks in the process... Kevin