How to bet after 3 losses?

[Guest]

I've been getting a little heat over at Baccarat Forums again. BF is where all the losing players end up. There, they can comingle with the other losers and cry on each others shoulders and take turns calling their teacher a scammer. The thought of Blaming their own selves never even enters their head.

Over the years I've taught about 5000 players. But there is always that one out of 100 that just doesn't get it. Once in a great while it is through no fault of their own. Hey, half the world has an IQ under 100.

But most of the time it IS their own fault. They buy their manual and realize by page 3 that there is actual work involved. Work on THEIR part. The manual goes on a shelf to collect dust forever. But now they have somebody to blame. If I were to ask them what an opposite was, not one of them would have the slightest idea. Yet I tell everyone up front that if you don't know an opposite from a repeat, you can't play Baccarat.

No doubt some of them WERE scammed. There certainly are enough scammers out there to go around. There are also MANY plainly incompetent Baccarat teachers who have no idea they are incompetent. Most of you have had dealings with one or the other. The difference is YOU kept searching.

I can't help but notice that over the years my best Bac and BJ students were already successful in life before they came to me. These are people who already knew what it takes to be successful. Many Doctors, Dentists, Lawyers and Company owners. Those guys seem to breeze right through and become good players. But they already knew what study, practice and devotion was before they got to me. And so did I.

But then I get that other kind:

"Dear Ellis, I have no money and no job and failed at everything I ever tried to do. So now I want to become a professional Bacaratt player or whatever you call it. Can you help me?"

God help us!

There's another future BF member.

And you know what, most of these guys are people I never heard of. You know why? Because they never asked a question.

Edited December 22, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Could some of you guys please go over to the public forum and reply to napoleonbp on his own thread. Or at least vouch for my post. THANKS!

[aegis21]

Hey Boss,

Which system to use on this shoe? Has me confused, it has a streaky tendency but seems to switch sides (no strong side for F2)

B23312154

B213532115

P11113112213

B1111111231

Just general comments on which system and why would be great. Of course not playing this game is an option too!

Thanks

John

here is the game using one of my old manual play programs, pay no attention to how I played this! LOL

Edited December 22, 2011 by aegis21

[Guest]

Hey Boss,

Which system to use on this shoe? Has me confused, it has a streaky tendency but seems to switch sides (no strong side for F2)

B23312154

B213532115

P11113112213

B1111111231

Just general comments on which system and why would be great. Of course not playing this game is an option too!

Thanks

John

OTB4L Mode 2 on straight runs and Mode 3 on ZZ. If you start at the 3rd play you already have your +10 before the 4 can hurt you. If not, you'll hit +10 anyway because nothing else in that shoe hurts you. Merry Christmas!

[aegis21]

Thanks Boss, I guess I also have an aversion to OTB4L for some reason...

Thanks and Merry Christmas to you and all on this forum.

Peace on earth and good winning for all!

John

[MVSeahog]

Thanks Boss, I guess I also have an aversion to OTB4L for some reason...

John

John,

I will admit that when OTB4L is "cooking" and you've identified it, you look like a genius at the table, especially when you're hitting the P side correctly and everybody else is still chasing the B side for a few more wagers.

MVS

[aegis21]

I'm off to Foxwoods casino now and will report back sometime tomorrow. I hope I can get a game of bac in, the tables are almost always filled with families playing an entire pit. If not then the blackjack conditions hopefully are ok. Otherwise it will be a lot of watching bac tables for a good game with a seat! LOL

I know my reports will pale compared to MVS, but I'll try my best!

TTFN

John

[CdnChamer]

Just to clarify ......

When playing S40 Mode 2 OTR play after first OTR series was played erlier

If I win my first 3-unit OTR bet and lose my second 1- unit OTR bet in Mode 2, is my my next unit bet size rain at 1 unit or progress to 2 units for the next opposite side?

Thanks

Thanks

[Guest]

Just to clarify ......

When playing S40 Mode 2 OTR play after first OTR series was played erlier

If I win my first 3-unit OTR bet and lose my second 1- unit OTR bet in Mode 2, is my my next unit bet size rain at 1 unit or progress to 2 units for the next opposite side?

Thanks

Thanks

Correct CC. After an OTR win or lose your next bet is ALWAYS 1 unit regardless whether you are making another OTR bet of not. You want to have your full 1234 prog available in case the run goes 8. So it takes a 9 to beat us. On the other hand if you are seeing a lot of 8 or mores just stay OTR until you lose just like you do with F.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

John,

I will admit that when OTB4L is "cooking" and you've identified it, you look like a genius at the table, especially when you're hitting the P side correctly and everybody else is still chasing the B side for a few more wagers.

MVS

Right, while winning with OTB4L you are always the only player winning. Nobody else knows that system. That is why the casinos shoot for OTB4L in their pre game card prep.

Back in the early '90s, all the casinos were dealing super streak shoes. That is what the universal standard Bac shuffle produced back in those days when we were seeing 20 or more in a row on a daily basis. We were playing TB4L and killing them. So the casinos finally reacted and dropped the standard Bac shuffle altogether. All the TB4L players were getting killed and the casino drop went from 3% to 20% virtually over night!

So I simply bet OTB4L and killed them some more. So they barred me. Those guys just can't take a joke.

I was an editor for Eddie Olsen's Blackjack Confidential back then and we published every US casino's drop (profits) each month for both Bac and BJ. That is how I learned that casinos could control both games through shuffle technology. Once I thorougly understood that fact I studied exactly how they did that. Timing washes and so forth. That way I could beat them virtually at will - and still can.

Today, we can't study the shuffle nearly as much so we simply study its effects instead. Hence, NOR.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Back in the old days right up to the mid 80's a Banker Banked the game and had to bet Bank. The Players all had to bet Player. The Banker paid the casino a commission to deal the cards. Hence the terms Banker, Player and Commission. That is why Bank was given a slight edge.

Ha I think BJ used to be called OH Shit! Becuse that was all you ever heard in the BJ pits until I came along. Then the casino started calling it OH Shit! It took me about an hour to recognize that the game was outrageously rigged and therefore could be beat.

The computer boys will never figure that out because their computers don't cheat. Hence, Mr Carlson and Co. You could study under him and learn to beat your computer. But you'll get killed playing a casino that way. I know - I tried it.

You could learn all that over at BF except that nobody knows anything over there and they all want to be Ellis. Hell, I don't think they even play. Just argue full time.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

"Monkey" refers to the figure drawn on face cards. When a hand gets dealt an 8 or 9 we often want to see a monkey to complete the natural.

In BJ we refer ro face cards as "color". A lot of color on the table usually means a good hand is coming up.

[harrican]

Correct CC. After an OTR win or lose your next bet is ALWAYS 1 unit regardless whether you are making another OTR bet of not. You want to have your full 1234 prog available in case the run goes 8. So it takes a 9 to beat us. On the other hand if you are seeing a lot of 8 or mores just stay OTR until you lose just like you do with F.

Just to clarify too.. from the Manual , somewhere in the "Review of OTR betting in general",

Quote.. "With S40, our rule is to attempt a second OTR bet when we are in Mode 2 because we got on the run so early. BUT, if that second OTR bet fails, next time we only stay OTR for ONE bet. In other words you are always letting the shoe tell you what to do."

So with reference to CdnChamer's question ( http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6637&p=30175#post30175 ) , when his S40 lose his second 1 unit OTR bet in Mode 2.. The Mode now still remains at Mode 2 but we only place ONE OTR bet instead of Two times when the next Mode 2 Situation pops again?

This is not considered Mode 2 failing right? which would call for a switch to Mode 3..

Hope I didn't sound too confusing

[Guest]

Just to clarify too.. from the Manual , somewhere in the "Review of OTR betting in general",

Quote.. "With S40, our rule is to attempt a second OTR bet when we are in Mode 2 because we got on the run so early. BUT, if that second OTR bet fails, next time we only stay OTR for ONE bet. In other words you are always letting the shoe tell you what to do."

So with reference to CdnChamer's question ( http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6637&p=30175#post30175 ) , when his S40 lose his second 1 unit OTR bet in Mode 2.. The Mode now still remains at Mode 2 but we only place ONE OTR bet instead of Two times when the next Mode 2 Situation pops again?

This is not considered Mode 2 failing right? which would call for a switch to Mode 3..

Hope I didn't sound too confusing

Exactly correct harrican! Our standard rule says to stay OTR for 2 bets in Mode 2 but only 1 in Mode 3. That usually works best given the run lengths we usually see these days. BUT, not all shoes are alike. So we provide the option of staying OTR for only 1 bet in Mode 2 and/or until you lose in both Modes 2 and 3 if that is what the shoe at hand has favored thus far. This is in keeping with our overall play style that says let the shoe tell you what to do.

[Guest]

Here is an interesting question John Malaysia Emailed me:

>

> Hi Uncle Ellis,

>

> I pray that God bless you w good health and wealth!

>

> Can you please give me your expert advice on the following?

>

>

> Baccarat Continuous Shuffling Study

>

> JohnMalaysia

> Genting Casino Shoes

> Playing on 20.12.11 Tues

>

> Purpose: to study the continuous shuffling effects on same color card shoes at the same table using Shuffle Master Machine (Las Vegas) in order to predict the most likely trends of next shoes. Cards have been continuously shuffled for 1 and half day and since Monday morning new cards, as the scores were mostly recorded on Tuesday afternoon.

>

> Background: these are shoes w open cards (dealer open cards for public betting) on Tuesday (after a day's continuous shuffling). Two sets of Red or Blue/purple New cards are used on every Monday morning for continuous shuffling after every shoe by Shuffle Master Machine for a week. Shuffling time is usually 7-9 min.

> The dealer always discard one card prior to every hand.

>

> Question:

> Is there a pattern of trends after each continuous shuffling on same color cards?

> Can we predict the shuffled cards? E.g from 40 to otbl, otbl to F, f to f, etc?

>

> How do we bet on losing shoes at Table 11, 31 & 35?

>

> Table 09

> 9am Shoe 2 Red Card ?=number still on as not confirmed yet

> B2211312152124212124212114222111?

> 1105am Shoe 3 Blue

> P3141211111111111113131311121?

> 1230pm Shoe 4 Red

> P114112912121224112342112?

> 320pm Shoe 5 Blue

> This shoe 5 was streaky

> 515pm Shoe 6 Red

> B222111112111111443211122?

> 7.00pm Shoe 7 Blue

> P1121411244211 10(ten)

> 935pm Shoe 10 Red

> B312111411116222141131?

> 12am (Mid night) Shoe 11 Blue

> B111151131111512114112231112121112

> 1225am Shoe 12 Red

> P164?

>

> Table 10

> 515pm Shoe 7 Blue

> B2221111121123222321111?

> 7.00pm Shoe 8 Red

> P144211324222111412131141?

> 935pm S10 R

> B124111216611211221224?

> 1045pm S11 B

> B22323222111214?

> 12am S12 R

> B162314?21142?

>

> Table 05

> 520pm S8 R

> B11822114311125413272?

> 7pm S10 R

> B1232632?

> 935pm S11 B

> B2122151332313313221122?

>

> Table 06

> 520pm S9 B

> B22232212321142311122241123321?

> 7pm S10 R

> P2141241171222312111211211121?

> 935pm S 12 R

> P12221251343112211321111113121?

> 10pm S 13 B

> P4315112311232211?

> 12am S 14 R

> B31232331211?

>

> Table 07

> 1.20pm Shoe5 Red

> P2111425333221 14(forteen) 1?

> 3.00pm Shoe 6 Blue

> B111151121211522121413231?

> 330pm Shoe 7 Red

> P1222252421111?

> 520pm Shoe 8 Blue

> P141111113221324341211141?

> 935pm Shoe11 Red

> B23131211114?

> 1050pm Shoe 12 Blue

> P13131721241315151?

> 1205am Shoe 13 Red

> B123112211321235214222231?

> 1.50am Shoe 14 Blue

> P1213211?

>

> Table 08

> 12pm Shoe 4 Red

> P311221112121122131121113?

> 2pm Shoe 6 Red

> P4124412221231?

> 520pm Shoe 8 Red

> P11111134222322216342111212?

> 7.00pm Shoe10 Red

> P51211113422111?

> 935pm Shoe 12 Red

> B11111231132111211231111411221112111?

> 1050pm Shoe 13 Blue

> P23111211131333113211?

> 1205am Shoe 14 Red

> B142323312213114111211?

>

> **Table 11

> 1215pm Shoe 5 Blue (losing-225)

> **B233111111246211111111311?

> 2.00pm Shoe 7 Blue

> B13111232242229111?

> 4pm S8 R (f3 winning225)

> B12 11(eleven) 1114111222111112511271?

> 520pm S9 B

> B216?

> 7.00pm S 10 R

> P161?

> 935pm S11 B

> B11111141412111415311141?

> 1010p S12 R

> P211114315112157343212?

> 12am S13 B

> P11111614211252222612211?

>

> Table12

> 230p s7 hand18 red OR Count-4

> P311132112223?

> 525p s9 16r OR3

> B3211123?

> 7p s10 46b OR-6

> P5434112121121111113111311117?

> 935p s12 9b

> B121163221132221451121?

> 12a s13 31r OR5

> B41311311323113131313122?

>

> Table32

> 525p s5 37b OR0

> P1111132421211231111?

> 935p s7 12b OR-4

> P11114222?

> 11p s8 17r or2

> B32616?

> 1210a s9 16b or-1

> B243222?

>

> **Table31

> 930p s2 37r (losing-225!)

> P1113163413211221

> 120p s5 30 b OR5 (f losing-200)

> **P2216131111311122?

> 935p s8 46r OR-4

> P321122211127645?

> 11p s9 54b pr2

> P12213153115214231214121?

>

> Table36

> 935p s10 35b OR0

> P61112211131213132?

> 1210a s11 45r OR3

> B122311114121112121121111131?

>

> **Table35

> 10 pm S5 29 b OR-2 (losing150)

> **P11111132221253?

> 525p s8 52r OR-2

> P21221121111323112122111131111?

>

> Table33

> 1230pm S 2 16b

> P2123121112111112122111?

> 525p s3 26r OR-10 (losing200)

> B11171111261121311?

> 935p s6 50b OR-4

> B331614512111111111?

> 11p s7 32r OR0

> P1113311122231231?

>

> Table37

> 710p S4 red

> P2312121124115121256....

> 11p s6 37r Or5

> P113111111113211114162?

> 1210a s7 58b OR-15

> P1111311121113243214133111431?

>

> Table38

> 710p S6 22r OR6

> B21128321

> 11p S8 61r OR-13

> B21211113112242421131114111711?

> 1210am S9 61b OR4

> P32211111211311161321124233132?

>

> Table39

> 7p S7 44r OR8

> B11213251212123111131111311?

> 935p S10 42b OR3

> B21215311312211352?

> 11p S12 21 b OR-4

> B31231611?

>

> With much appreciation.

>

> Best and Kind Regards,

>

> JohnMalaysia

John, I don't know of any successful attempts to introduce continuous shufflers to Baccarat on this side of the globe. So I haven't had any oppotunity to study the effects and I would just be guessing.

They have been introduced in BJ but this has not been popular and real players tend to stay away from them which makes their continued use questionable.

In Baccarat, while convenient for the casinos they are too untraditional for real Bac players for several good reasons.

First, casinos have tried to introduce burning a card with every new dealer here in the states before. That did not go over with the Bac players because it

ruins the die is cast tradition of Baccarat. In traditional Bac the die is cast when the first card is dealt. Nothing can change the outcome of any hand. But burning cards mid shoe allows the casino to change up the game whenever they are losing. Players will not stand for this here and will boycot such games.

Players are used to playing in definable shoes and can schedule their personal needs breaks around the shuffles every hour or so. Continuous shufflers eliminate these breaks forcing players to miss plays during personal needs breaks. Players don't like missing plays and this arrangement will never fly here. Casinos are very competitive here and must cater to the wishes of their customers.

Now, that being said, looking at your shoes, I can't help but notice that they are super random which is exactly what you would expect with cards that have been shuffled that long. This is a "tell" for any professional player. Super random is highly beatable with OTB4L. For a while, OTB4L shoes will be casino favorable. I'm sure they know this and that is the real reason they want to introduce continuous shufflers in Baccarat.

BUT, it is just a question of time before pro players will realize how to kill these shoes. And the casino's whole experiment will backfire and they will find theirselves paying out to huge winners. Mark my words.

I suspect this thing will be short lived in Asia just as it was here. It's just another case where casinos are prone to shooting theirselves in the foot.

JOHN, look at your shoes! Notice the total lack of 8+s together with the high incidence of ZZ runs. Look at all the 2s. We would just play OTB4L and go on ZZs early. I would recommend U1D2 M3 B2 OTB4L and shoot for +40 units a shoe. They wouldn't know what hit them!

Edited January 3, 2012 by Guest

[johnMalaysia]

Hi Uncle Ellis,

Truly, you are the Father of Modern Baccarat! I think your NOR Manual is Baccarat at its Best ever in the history of mankind. We salute you from the Far East!

Yes, indeed, those shoes are highly beatable with otbl early zz as advised by you. Uncle, do you think we should consider switching otbl to 40 upon the first 5 runs of zz counted correctly?

I apologize for any misunderstanding on ‘Continuous Shuffling’ and wish to share the scenario again.

Two sets of different color new cards are used on every Monday morning for some 60 Open Card Baccarat tables. They shall be used for a week.

Every set of cards must be shuffled (7-9 minutes) again by Shuffle Master machine besides the table for each new shoe. A green button light is on while shuffling, cards are distributed from one row in the middle rack to two rows on the side racks and move up and down but never left to right. They are visible in the glass doors and produce shuffling sounds. The two rows of cards dispersed on left and right then emerged into a row of cards in the middle rack and remain stationary when the red light is on indicating the job done.

Player can cut the cards prior to placing them into a stationary box for new shoe. The first open card is used to burn the number of cards by its value (face card is value 10 for 10 burnt cards and so on). The dealer must burn a card first on every hand. Only 3 free hands are shown on the tote board.

Once a shoe is finished, the whole 8 deck of cards shall be placed into the Shuffle Master machine by the table again for the same process of shuffling (7-9 minutes) while the other already shuffled set of cards shall be taken out from the same machine for the next new shoe.

This process shall carry on for a week till the following Monday morning when two new sets of cards shall replace the old sets.

This is not a case of handing out new cards and putting in old cards in a continuously shuffling machine, which the casinos here use for BJ, Three Picture, Casino War, Poker, 7 UP Baccarat (Sands Singapore) and other games.

Based on the shoe results given, can we see any pattern of trends by each shuffle? like from OTBL to 40, 40 to F, F to F, etc...

How would we bet on Shoe 11, 31 and 35 marked by double asterisks?

Any comments from the forum are much appreciated!

BTW, anyone interested to come over the Far East, you are welcome to contact me, ok?

Again, Uncle Ellis, I really appreciated your very professional mentoring...

Indeed, you are truly the Father of Modern Baccarat!

[Guest]

OK John, that is NOT what is known as a continuous shuffler. A continuous shuffler is when the discards go directly into the macine so it just keeps shuffling and just keeps on rolling along forever so the shoe has no end and no beginning. THAT is what players object to and I doubt we ever see them used in Baccarat. In fact, I doubt they will last in BJ. What you are describing is a standard shuffle master. With those, the casino can contol the length of time of the shuffle and therefore the chop/streakiness of the outcome. They produce biases according to the shuffle timer. That is what NOR is designed to beat.

I think in many of those shoes, switching to S40 too quick could be a mistake. However, given so many ZZ runs, you might instead, consider going on ZZs one play earlier (after One lost bet instead of 2 or 3). In that case you would stay on the ZZ until you lose - then back to OTB4L. But against straight runs you would play normal OTB4L. You don't want to put yourself in the position of losing to all 2s so TB4L is a no no.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Guest

[johnMalaysia]

Hi Uncle Ellis,

Yes, you can sure say that again. People over here hate those Continuous Shuffler. Some suspect they may be tricky with special route to shoot out casino pre-arrange cards in through their rollers.

I hope my questions can be answered by anyone in the forums while Uncle Ellis is directing the threads to give some one else a chance to share as well...

Uncle Ellis, God Bless You. We all like and love you a lot from the Far East... You are our Baccarat Super Hero!!!

[Guest]

Hi Uncle Ellis,

Yes, you can sure say that again. People over here hate those Continuous Shuffler. Some suspect they may be tricky with special route to shoot out casino pre-arrange cards in through their rollers.

I hope my questions can be answered by anyone in the forums while Uncle Ellis is directing the threads to give some one else a chance to share as well...

Uncle Ellis, God Bless You. We all like and love you a lot from the Far East... You are our Baccarat Super Hero!!!

Right, they have been known to produce some outrageously peculiar shoes. Sometimes they even embarass the dealer. Real players don't trust them at all.

[Raymond]

Wow! Thanks Ellis for the best understanding yet of the Mode 2 and Mode 3's. I've been struggling to understand these and this is the clearest explanations I've seen yet to help me understand the modes and how to apply them. I've attempted to create this example and attach it here. I hope I have it right.

[ATTACH]2185[/ATTACH]

Hi Ellis,

sorry to raise a question that relates to an old shoes. Could you advise why you will bet OTR the 3rd time at 41 play under S40 mode 2?

and also why you will continue to bet Player at play 46 & 47?

I can understand the logic for the rest of the play except those 2.

Thanks,

Raymond

[Raymond]

Hi Witchygal,

do you know the answer to my question below?

rgds,

Raymond

[witchygal]

Hi Witchygal,

do you know the answer to my question below?

rgds,

Raymond

Sure Raymond.

The play is totally correct. I will explain it here.

Hand 39 is S40 mode 2. So we go OTR after lose 2 times. When in mode 2, follow 1 more time before coming back to opposite.

As you see hand 40 the OTR has lose. So we need to go back playing opposite with S40.

So on hand 41 we are betting opposite against player at hand 40, hence the bet on banker.

Hand 45, we go OTR but lose. So we go back to progression of 1 unit by playing opposite the result of hand 45.

Hand 47 is the same. Still playing opposite with S40.

Hope this helps.

[Raymond]

oh.....got it. thanks Witchygal.

it is a sign of mental block after overdigesting the NOR theories. haha

[witchygal]

You are welcome Raymond