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Runs once and for all by Ellis

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There is no Mathematician from any school who can tell you how to beat runs better than I can. I am the world authority.

There is no magical formula.

You need to study the rules I have put forth. There are no short cuts.

Your BEST tool is the OR count but you must know exactly how to use it.

All Baccarat shoes have runs. They are an unavoidable fact of life.

You can't simply ignore them because if you do you will win the half of all shoes Lo in runs but you will lose the half of all shoes Hi in runs and, at best break even - but you still owe commission.

BTW there is no such thing as no commission Baccarat. You are paying commission one way or another.

Therefore you must play runs. They are nothing to be afraid of.

Runs are not a true barrier. They are like a door that can simply be opened.

Runs are easy to beat by being in the right mode.

We only need to be right more than half the time and the OR count does that very soundly.

The OR count is the best mathematical way to be in the right mode most of the time.

There is no secret method better than the OR count.

If you want to eliminate runs decisions altogether simply play S40M1. That way you are ON all ZZ runs from the beginning and you are ON all ST runs from the third circle - no runs decisions at all.

BUT now you are going to have to figure out what to do with the 2s because you lose to every 2 no matter how you hit it and 2s are the second most common event. That's why I keep telling you to ONLY play S40M1 in shoes low in 2s. But it does, in fact, beat all ST and ZZ runs.

You CAN'T beat random cards! Any Mathematician from any school worth his salt will tell you that. In fact, it is a common joke in their world: "He is so stupid he tries to beat random numbers." That joke seems to be lost on some of you here.

No matter. Because there is no such thing as random cards.

First, preshuffled cards are fixed. A plain and simple fact of life.

Second, the shuffles required to shuffle 8 decks of cards to a random condition is 7 to the 8th power. 7X7X7X7X7X7X7X7. The dealer wouldn't finish shuffling in his lifetime.

Shuffle machines do NOT shuffle to a random condition. If they did, all BJ players would win and there would be no casinos. Basic Strategy alone beats random cards to the tune of 6%. Shuffle machines are purposely designed to AVOID shuffling to a random condition.

Given all of the above NOR is by far the best way Baccarat can be played. I'm defining NOR here as playing WITH rather than AGAINST the biases.

NOR +5 (2 High) (prog within a prog) is the surest way to average +5 or better. But you STILL must play the runs. You STILL need to know how to use the OR count to determine whether to play ON or Against the runs.

The 4D is the best way to play when you have no idea of the table conditions. Or, more accurately, it will be when we get it fully resolved. NOR already is fully resolved.

Those are the facts of the matter. Don't let anybody tell you different.

E. Clifton Davis

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Ellis can you show us a practice shoe with S40M1 it would help

I attempted to replay the Sugar house shoe from 04/01/2014 that was posted in NOR forum using S40M1. I hope this helps you guys out some.

I know its easy to post winning ways for a shoe after the fact but maybe this will help you to see a S40M1 shoe.


Best regards



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Notice in plays 15 through 18 where the 2's show up my score goes from 9 down to 4.

Thats what Ellis means about needing low 2's because 2's are deadly in S40M1.


tjfiles I think at play #8 the 1 bet should be straight down not across and straight from #10 to #15.

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Thank you for sharing. But I still do not understand what mode 1 means?? There is no mention of mode 1 in my training manual?? thank you for your patience.

Golfgirl, so do you play golf? I used to play a lot. Scratch golfer. Played with Dotty Pepper back when she was in high school.

Per your manual:

Mode 2, you go on the run after 2 losing bets and initially stay for 2 bets.

Mode 3, you go on the run after 3 losing bets and stay for 1 bet.

And so:

Mode 1, you go OTR (On The Run) after 1 losing bet and stay until you lose.

You'll find that the one nemesis of S40M1 is you always lose a 2 bet under a 2. That is why we only play it when 2s are low (less than one every 8 plays)

So, you need a plan for 2s.

Here is the best way:

So, OK you lose your 2 bet under a 2. Stop betting. Wait for any possible TT run to end. (PP BB PP BB) Restart at 1.

But the next time you are betting under a 2, bet 3 and if that loses stop betting again but under the next 2 bet 5.

That way you are breaking up your prog. That is what we mean by a prog within a prog. You virtually never have to go higher than 5. If you do, you are likely playing the wrong system.

You don't like to see 2s when you are playing A40M1 but we have no real control over that. So if you start getting too many 2s, try to bail out with at least +5.

BTW, the reason S40M1 is not in your manual is I didn't design it until after the manual was written. S40M1 replaces F except for Strong Side. In SS shoes we still play F3. S40M1 does much better than F when you have runs on both sides which is usually the case. It also does better in ZZ runs. It is similar to TB4L except it is on ZZ runs right from the beginning giving it a big advantage over TB4L.

TB4L is not in your manual either. It simply means Time Before Last - a 400 year old system.

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Notice in plays 15 through 18 where the 2's show up my score goes from 9 down to 4.

Thats what Ellis means about needing low 2's because 2's are deadly in S40M1.


Jim. no, Since S40M1 is for streaky shoes, once we are on the ST run, we stay on the run until we lose and then restart with a 1 on opposite.

Note how I told Golfgirl the best way to handle 2s.

Since S40M1 is a major component in our new +5 million dollar program, I will write a new S40M1 +5 chapter after the BaOTB4L chapter.

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Previously, you mentioned that casinos just love "3-in-rows," as most players have no idea how to play them

What about "2-in-rows"? Would you expect some orchestration there as well, since TB4L loses against the above

pattern big time.

Thank you.

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Jim's S40M1 shoe replayed correctly to the +5 $1,000,000 program.

We only play S40M1 in streaky shoes Lo in 2s. Normal 2s are 1 every 8 plays. The runs can be straight or ZZ. We win both which totally solves the runs problem.

Note my highest bet was 2 except for the prog within a prog which I marked in red. It generated a single 3 bet. I could have waited until I was sure the shoe wasn't going to produce a TT. (PP BB PP) But since 2s were so low, this was an acceptable risk.

My secondary prog, bet ONLY under 2s, is 235. This means I can only lose the secondary prog if the shoe produces 3 2s before it produces a 3 or more which is next to impossible in a streaky shoe low in 2s. See that?

In Baccarat PA is everything! But in our +5 $1,000,000 program it is even more important.

PA or ROI is units won/units bet. BJ Card counters strive for 0.5%. I hit 26%. Ha, that is unheard of in BJ. They would call me a liar.

Jim did very well at 12.8%. But we are talking top professional play here. To achieve a high PA we need to keep our bets low. That is what the system is designed to do.

In the correct shoes a +5 or more is virtually guaranteed.

Anyone who can average +5 is worth a million dollars.

BTW, I would have quit this shoe with +8 at play 15! That would have avoided the 3 bet altogether!

Sure, I COULD have gone to 2 after the forced 1 bet losses under straight runs. I might have scored much higher. But why risk it when I'm only trying to average +5???


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Previously, you mentioned that casinos just love "3-in-rows," as most players have no idea how to play them

What about "2-in-rows"? Would you expect some orchestration there as well, since TB4L loses against the above

pattern big time.

Thank you.

Correct! Even more so. Casinos strive for TB4L shoes. That is where they win the most money because players have no idea how to play TB4L. This means shoes will tend to be high in single1's, 2s and 3s.

Testing 10,000 casino shoes. Basic OTB4L won to an incredible 34%PA when it should have merely broke even if the cards were random. This proves beyond all doubt that casinos favor and get a very high % of OTB4L. How is not important. Fact is fact.

So, does this mean you could always simply play OTB4L?

NO! They are much smarter than that. As soon as they see you winning with OTB4L they will change the shuffle. In fact, you can anticipate it.

Half the battle is understanding the casino's side of the table. They did't go from 3% take in the early '90s to 15% today being stupid.

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We started that shoe at play 2 how did we know what type of shoe it was going to be or do we always start out playing it as if it was?

Ha, Jim's a good player. I doubt if he actually started at play 2. I'm just correcting Jim's play starting at the same place with the same system. I suspect he had already seen enough shoe to know what to start with. Or, he knew from prior shoes the same color. Usually we see an interesting tote board, sit down and start playing. We don't go back and record the shoe from the beginning. Likewise when we quit we usually stop recording.

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If the shoe has started play, maybe about 5-10 events, we don't go back to record the shoe from the beginning and calculate the OR count?

So in other words, we play based on the last 2 or 3 events which indicates at that time the shoe is going opposites?

Thanks & Regards

Good question and welcome to the forum - a little belatedly.

No, you haven't quite got the full picture yet.

The tote board is everything. Table search is everything. The exact OR count is not important. What's important is it + or - or hovering 0. In other words is the shoe chopy, streaky or neutral. What event(s) is it high in, and what event(s) is it low in. Remember that we only settle for the most biased tote board we can find. We are also interested in run lengths, both ZZ and ST - even TT. Is is Strong Sided?

So we already know from the tote board what we are going to play and how we are going to play it (Mode). Now we are looking for a good entry point. Your entry point can give you an extra bet.

For instance, for both S40 and OTB4L a 3iar is a good entry point. It gives us a better chance betting a prog on Opposites. That way the shoe must produce a longer run to beat us. See that?

When we see a good entry point, the emphasis is on getting our bet down. I usually have my bet down before I'm even comfortable in my seat. Recording the tote board is the last thing on your mind and the least necessary. After all, the information is already there right in front of you. We aren't thinking about recording the first part of the shoe maybe to post later for the benefit of the members. We don't care about that - we are playing for money! Get the bet right. Forget the members. See that? You're in the game! Play the game!

So I just jot down the last couple plays and go for it.

If I don't already know what I'm going to play, I DON'T play.

The problem with posting shoes on the forum is we are taking the shoe out of context. We are playing in the blind W/O benefit of the tote board. That is something we should NEVER do. Playing in the blind is pure stupid. ONLY play with an advantage.

I often have the situation where, while I'm studying the tote board, some jerk running down the isle ducks under my arm and grabs the only empty seat. I just smile and walk on. I know that guy is going to lose his shirt. He has no concept of the game. But I have learned to keep my hand on the back of the seat. That helps - but not always. Some guys think it's a contest to see who can lose their money the fastest. Dumb bastards. Don't be one of those. I'm sure there are guys here who are seeing themselves about now. Aren't there!

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Taking the point a little further:

The OR count is good for determining Mode. + = M3; - = M2.

But the exact OR count can be misleading in determining which system to play.

For instance, a 0 OR count is not always OTB4L. You can have high ZZs cancelling out high STs forming a near 0 OR count. Nevertheless, if it has low 2s, and it usually will in that case. it is S40M1.

OR count determines mode.

EVENTS determine system!

High 1's = S40

But High 1's together with high ST runs and low 2s = S40M1

High 2s = OTB4L - We like to also see high 3s and single 1's with it which we usually do.

Low 2s = S40M1

Low 1s and 2s = TB4L

Strong Side = F3

A + OR count can ONLY occur in high 1's, period.

A - OR count can ONLY occur in low 1's.

So, if you know what 1's and 2s are doing you already know what to play and what mode to play it in. See that?

1's normally occur one every 4 plays on avg.

2s normally occur one every 8 plays on avg.

1's occur when 1st liners have no circle under them.

2's occur when 2nd liners have no circle under them.

It pays well to linger at a tote board and study it for a while until you thoroughly understand exactly how it functions.

Much of the information is irrelevant. - It's just there to suck in the Asians.

1's and 2s tell you everything you need to know to play the right system in the right mode.

Eventually events will replace the OR count in your perception of the game.

That's when you start winning big time!

When you first start out you find yourself changing systems nearly every time you lose a bet. WRONG!

With experience: What are 1's doing? What are 2s doing? That's all you need once you know how to use that information effectively.

High 1's is the ONLY way a shoe can be choppy.

Low 1's is the ONLY way a shoe can be streaky.

See that?

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I got It!!!

This S40M1 shoes are very easy to spot. Low in 2s and -OR count .You are in and out with +5 in no time.

Aha! You're getting the picture. Um, except for one thing:

You can easily have high ZZs more than cancelling out the high STs resulting in a PLUS OR count - very common.

And these high ZZs together with high STs crowd out the 2s.

And THIS is actually your very BEST S40M1 application. Such shoes are common and can easily get you into the +30s.

One more important tip:

Normally S40M1 stays on all runs until you lose - like the example.

BUT, sometimes one run type or the other is simply never going past 3. FINE! Play it that way! Get it?

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And one more important S40M1 tip:

True, casinos like to present mostly OTB4L shoes because that's where they make their biggest profits.

EXCEPT when we are there!

In spite of all of the gaming books trying to tell you otherwise, casinos are extremely intelligent. They are pros. They know EVERY trick in the book legal or otherwise. Don't let anyone ever tell you otherwise.

Yes, they FAVOR OTB4L BUT they like to present a moving target. They love to lull the players into playing one way and right when they get comfortable raise the stakes, BAM, they change the shuffle and completely change the game catching everyone with their pants down. Time and time and time again.

Their next most favorite shoe type is S40M1. LOW freaking 2s instead of high 2s. Everybody gets killed - EXCEPT US!

BECAUSE WE are expecting this - aren't we.

Well yes Ellis - We are NOW!

Look, S40M1 is our BIG MONEY shoe type.

Why? Because we no longer have to worry about runs. Runs suddenly become our friends ST or ZZ Ha, but not TT.

We are unhampered! We are let loose! We are unchained! Have at the bastards!

Everybody needs a +30 now and then. It's good for our ego. And it does wonders for our average. Piss off the bastards.

So it's bad for your comps. Look! Get your priorities straight! Comps are for losers. They don't comp winners. They aren't stupid.

Beat the bastards soundly - Then you won't need the comps.

I haven't been comped ANYWHERE in 25 years. I can't even get a freaking meal comp at the buffet. That's why I always eat with and stay with you guys.

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OK that about raps up S40M1.

Just remember:

Mathematically, HALF of all shoes are high in 2s = OTB4L

BUT, Half of all shoes are LOW in 2s = S40M1.

Yes, you need to back off on 2s and play your prog within a prog.

Wait for the TTs to end.

BUT! 2s are the ONLY thing that can hurt you.

EVERYTHING else in the shoe, no matter what, HELPS you.

So, have at it! It is your BIG money shoe type!

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