Runs once and for all by Ellis

[kramden]

Sure! Here's one: What are you talking about "1's, 2s and 3s together"?

I humbly submit that this makes me happy!

This is the first sign of new talk here in a long time.

It appears that some new tidbits are being talked about after being suggested.

The framework for new discussion has been set. We need to keep

talking about these things as a group to see if we can get somewhere

further down the road together.

Lets work together.

I mean this with all due respect to Ellis and crew!

Lets let the teacher teach for a bit and then follow up with questions and ideas.

I know we can do better if we all put our heads together.

This is what I paid for.

[kramden]

I humbly submit that this makes me happy!

This is the first sign of new talk here in a long time.

It appears that some new tidbits are being talked about after being suggested.

The framework for new discussion has been set. We need to keep

talking about these things as a group to see if we can get somewhere

further down the road together.

Lets work together.

I mean this with all due respect to Ellis and crew!

Lets let the teacher teach for a bit and then follow up with questions and ideas.

I know we can do better if we all put our heads together.

This is what I paid for.

Afterthought...

Before anyone gets the wrong idea...

We have just been thru alot. It is not wise for me to give any more

opinions at this time.

Can you all see that?

Members please hash out the idea of what these three events could

could be used for. We already know alot. Keep the convo rolling.

[ECD]

I humbly submit that this makes me happy!

This is the first sign of new talk here in a long time.

It appears that some new tidbits are being talked about after being suggested.

These recent posts on TB4L (or S40M1) should be very vaulable to all members, but I don't see it as anything "new." Ellis has taught us this before - maybe using a more subtle approach. But everyone should focus on the important insights mentioned. Events are what it is all about about -- has been said before, but I like the way Ellis has emphasised this point. Many successful players here have understood this. You MUST know how your "system" and "progression" will perform for each event. Thank you Ellis, for being so crystal clear, and also for providing a good reminder that the game is not complicated and following simple truths of the game can and will work.

[Guest]

This is the first sign of new talk here in a long time.

Hmm, I have to agree with way2fast. Nothing new here. Strange that it seems new to you. The forum hasn't changed. Maybe you are just reading more often??? Nobody's asking me what's wrong with me. But I'm getting a lot of calls and PMs asking what is wrong with you. You sound like Rip Van Winkle just waking up. Say whatever you want - answer any questions you want. But respect the forum and its members. Don't be saying things like: "This is what a real professional would do" Or "I'm going to search for a real Mathematician" as if there weren't any already here. Those are fighting words. We've discussed the short comings of Mathematicians here a zillion times. Makes members wonder if you've ever actually read the forum. And don't be making extravagant claims. Somebody might ask to see the shoes like they did with Oz. Sure, a few of the new guys got taken in. That's because they are new. Established members think you are trying to start your own forum. That's fine too. But get your own members and be forewarned that everything here is copyrighted. Several have tried that before. None were successful.

You were always a respected and responsible member before - always supported us. But then.....

[modnar]

Aha! You're getting the picture. Um, except for one thing:

You can easily have high ZZs more than cancelling out the high STs resulting in a PLUS OR count - very common.

And these high ZZs together with high STs crowd out the 2s.

And THIS is actually your very BEST S40M1 application. Such shoes are common and can easily get you into the +30s.

One more important tip:

Normally S40M1 stays on all runs until you lose - like the example.

BUT, sometimes one run type or the other is simply never going past 3. FINE! Play it that way! Get it?

So, on short runs after I reach the usual lenght I stop and watch? or bet against it?

[Guest]

So, on short runs after I reach the usual lenght I stop and watch? or bet against it?

Hmm, I thought you were getting it.

No, look, you start by betting opposites with a 1,2 progression. But you go ON the run when you lose ONE bet which is ALWAYS your 1 bet. So your 2 bet is ALWAYS directly under a 2 iar. If the 2 goes to 3 you win your 2 bet and stay on the run with 1 bets until you lose. Then you start over betting 1 on opposites. This way you win against every event there is Except 2s that stay 2.

So you are automatically ON every run whether straight or ZZ so there are NO runs decisions to make. The ONLY thing you can lose your 2 bet to is a 2 that stays 2. That is why we ONLY play S40M1 when a shoe is low in 2s - less than 1 every 8 plays.

So OK you lose your 2 under a 2iar. You stop betting until you are sure the shoe is not producing a TT run. I didn't do that in the example because there had been NO 2s in the shoe thus far. So it was a pretty good risk that the shoe was not going to produce a 2,2.

When you resume betting you restart with your 1,2 prog, BUT, under the next 2, if any, you bet 3 instead of 2 which is the second bet of your secondary prog of 235 which is ONLY bet, one bet at a time, under 2 in a rows. So the ONLY way you can lose your secondary 235 prog is when a shoe produces 3 2s before it produces a 3 or more - Very unlikely in a streaky shoe.

Now, study the shoe example until you thorougly understand every bet. There are NO runs decisions to make.

[kramden]

Hmm, I have to agree with way2fast. Nothing new here. Strange that it seems new to you. The forum hasn't changed. Maybe you are just reading more often??? Nobody's asking me what's wrong with me. But I'm getting a lot of calls and PMs asking what is wrong with you. You sound like Rip Van Winkle just waking up. Say whatever you want - answer any questions you want. But respect the forum and its members. Don't be saying things like: "This is what a real professional would do" Or "I'm going to search for a real Mathematician" as if there weren't any already here. Those are fighting words. We've discussed the short comings of Mathematicians here a zillion times. Makes members wonder if you've ever actually read the forum. And don't be making extravagant claims. Somebody might ask to see the shoes like they did with Oz. Sure, a few of the new guys got taken in. That's because they are new. Established members think you are trying to start your own forum. That's fine too. But get your own members and be forewarned that everything here is copyrighted. Several have tried that before. None were successful.

You were always a respected and responsible member before - always supported us. But then.....

You just refuse to accept my gift. You win,already! Lets move

on and teach some good lessons.

A real "pro" knows when to fold em.

Talk about lawyers. How about a whole bunch of them in a class action?

Will you send jacoby or myer? (i didnt see their screennames being

"used" here)

Dont "press" it with this crap.

And you couldn't afford the public defender.

When we met in AC i watched you among others play. It was a high stakes seminar but you

played greens. (yeah i know it was a saturday night-- right) You lost both shoes you

played.

You talk about comps in your manuals. in your posts. Now you are against them.

You were banned from AC yet you used a players card that night.

Maybe you need a vacation down to South Beach?

Need I go on?

You see , casino money can fund a million memberships for me.

Now folks, there is a 50/50 chance that this we be my last post

in this regard, as I am only here to help.

I will bet a 3-4-5 on the run though.

Hows that for a "twist"?

(lets move on)

kramden/santa fe

[BigVic]

You just refuse to accept my gift. You win,already! Lets move

on and teach some good lessons.

A real "pro" knows when to fold em.

Talk about lawyers. How about a whole bunch of them in a class action?

Will you send jacoby or myer? (i didnt see their screennames being

"used" here)

Dont "press" it with this crap.

And you couldn't afford the public defender.

When we met in AC i watched you among others play. It was a high stakes seminar but you

played greens. (yeah i know it was a saturday night-- right) You lost both shoes you

played.

You talk about comps in your manuals. in your posts. Now you are against them.

You were banned from AC yet you used a players card that night.

Maybe you need a vacation down to South Beach?

Need I go on?

You see , casino money can fund a million memberships for me.

Now folks, there is a 50/50 chance that this we be my last post

in this regard, as I am only here to help.

I will bet a 3-4-5 on the run though.

Hows that for a "twist"?

(lets move on)

kramden/santa fe

And this is contributing to the forum? Please take your "gift" someplace else.

[Pamela Conkey]

Hey Ellis and everyone. could you go over to the universal thread and

check out the post from Brian? I 'd like to get some feed back from the post.

Thanks,Brian................

[modnar]

Hmm, I thought you were getting it.

No, look, you start by betting opposites with a 1,2 progression. But you go ON the run when you lose ONE bet which is ALWAYS your 1 bet. So your 2 bet is ALWAYS directly under a 2 iar. If the 2 goes to 3 you win your 2 bet and stay on the run with 1 bets until you lose. Then you start over betting 1 on opposites. This way you win against every event there is Except 2s that stay 2.

So you are automatically ON every run whether straight or ZZ so there are NO runs decisions to make. The ONLY thing you can lose your 2 bet to is a 2 that stays 2. That is why we ONLY play S40M1 when a shoe is low in 2s - less than 1 every 8 plays.

So OK you lose your 2 under a 2iar. You stop betting until you are sure the shoe is not producing a TT run. I didn't do that in the example because there had been NO 2s in the shoe thus far. So it was a pretty good risk that the shoe was not going to produce a 2,2.

When you resume betting you restart with your 1,2 prog, BUT, under the next 2, if any, you bet 3 instead of 2 which is the second bet of your secondary prog of 235 which is ONLY bet, one bet at a time, under 2 in a rows. So the ONLY way you can lose your secondary 235 prog is when a shoe produces 3 2s before it produces a 3 or more - Very unlikely in a streaky shoe.

Now, study the shoe example until you thorougly understand every bet. There are NO runs decisions to make.

Sorry, it was more a language barrier mistake. Your explanation confirms I understood it right.Thanks for your patience. Teacher.

[MVSeahog]

When you resume betting you restart with your 1,2 prog, BUT, under the next 2, if any, you bet 3 instead of 2 which is the second bet of your secondary prog of 235 which is ONLY bet, one bet at a time, under 2 in a rows. So the ONLY way you can lose your secondary 235 prog is when a shoe produces 3 2s before it produces a 3 or more - Very unlikely in a streaky shoe.

Viola!

That's the part I was missing!

NOW it makes a lot more sense when I read about it.

MVS

[Guest]

Viola!

That's the part I was missing!

NOW it makes a lot more sense when I read about it.

MVS

Right, that is the prog within a prog concept which we use in all +5 systems for the simple reason that we are only trying to average +5 rather than NOR's +10 or NOR+'s +20. So we might as well do it the safest way, the same way that won 40 shoes in a row played at 5 different casinos in both casino cities, Vegas and AC. But I should also mention that this concept had an extremely high win rate for several years. Then we got greedy.

Well greed is good! But we need to put it to our advantage. I think the idea of averaging +5 in a progam to win a million dollars is putting greed to work FOR us instead of against us. But it is GREED nevertheless. We could call the concept Practical Greed! Might be a better name than +5.

Now recognize that while your secondary prog is 235 for S40M1, it is only 123 for BaS40 and BaOTB4L.

Also recognize this little beauty: If you are getting enough 2s with S40M1 to give you any problems with your 235 secondary prog, you are no longer in an S40M1 situation. The shoe has changed to BaOTB4L which THRIVES on 2s. See that? You've got em coming and going.

But now that you've got me thinking about it, I see an even safer way to do S40M1. We are only trying to get to +5. Therefore, why not change the primary prog from 1,2 to 1,1. That way, we can make the secondary prog a universal 123 for all 3 +5 systems. Much safer. That would mean that under the first 2iar in the shoe we would bet only 1 unit. If we win, we stay on the run as usual. If we lose, under the next 2 we bet 2. If we win, we stay on the run as usual. But if we lose, that means the shoe produced a 2nd 2iar. If that occurs before play 16, that means 2s are high and we should switch to BaOTB4L. If the loss of our 2 occurs after play 16, that means that we are up to 3 on our secondary prog. So, if meanwhile we hit +5 at any point, which is highly likely, we quit because we know we have a 3 bet coming up. If we don't hit +5 along the way, fine, we still have a 3 bet coming up that will very likely do it for us. If not, it is definitely an OTB4L situation.

OK, that opens the door to one more trick I used very successfully. This has do do with your second OTR bet. So OK you win your 1 bet OTR so you stay on the run and bet 1. What I did if I lost that second 1 bet, next run after I win my first OTR bet I bet 2 instead of 1. See that? It's a prog within a prog within a prog. Very safe but also very easy to get to +5. Do you see that?

Well of course not, now that I look back at what I wrote. It is Extremely simple and solid in my own mind but hard to put in understandable words.

What we need is a +5 million dollar manual complete with detailed play examples and play by play explanations. I'll need to take considerable time off to do this. Even then, as simple as the whole thing is, We will still, as always, need Webinars and Seminars to explain the manual. And I simply can't afford to do this for free. I'll have to conference with Keith to come up with a plan.

I think it's time now I can mention that Norm was close to completing the million dollar program. He was up to the final stage, $5000 units after starting out at $10 units. The last time I spoke to Norm in person was in Vegas a few months ago. He was up $170,000 just for that trip. When he died, he was supposed to be with us in Vegas. I suspect that trip he might very well have completed the program. What a shame.

[trbfla]

Ellis

What were the tiers? When do you move up from $10 base bets ?

[Guest]

Ellis

What were the tiers? When do you move up from $10 base bets ?

You've got to read the forum. I'll do it for you this time:

E. Clifton Davis’ How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan

Once you are winning 5 units or more per shoe – try this no risk plan:

Day 1: Play 10 shoes @ $5 units = wins $250 – this gives you 10 - $25 unit buy in.

Day 2: Play 10 shoes @ $25 units = wins $1,250 – this gives you 12.5 - $100 unit buy in.

Day 3: Play 10 shoes @ $100 units = wins $5,000 – this gives you 10 - $500 unit buy in.

Day 4: Play 10 shoes @ $500 units = wins $25,000 – this gives you 10 - $1,000 unit buy in.

Day 5: Play 10 shoes @ $1,000 units = wins $50,000 – this gives you 10 - $5,000 unit buy in.

Day 6-10: Play 40 shoes @ $5,000 units = wins $1,081,500

OK, this is an extremely aggressive approach I wrote about 20 years ago. The game was far easier then: So, for today's game ...

Change the word "Day" to "Level"

Drop Level 1 altogether - They don't have $5 tables anymore.

Change "10 shoes" to "40 shoes"

This will give you "40" units at each new buy-in level. That's more practical today.

Also, any time you falter too far you need to repeat the prior level.

Norm was somewhere in the middle of level 6.

While Norm's 1,2 loop was a very good way, in my opinion it was not the best way.

I think the prog within a prog is a more consistent way of achieving +5.

Recognize that when you always follow a 1 with a 2 (mandatory 2) you are effectively flat betting at 1.5 mathematically.

You know my thoughts about flat betting.

However, Norm was using SAP to correct when he got wrong footed - when to change from 1,2 to 2,1.

SAP IS a good application for flat betting - perhaps the only one.

[trbfla]

Ellis thank you for this plan. It gives you everything you need for a self paced growth strategy and a back up plan for when you do falter. I'm putting this one in my manual for sure.

[Bobby]

Ellis, I'm confused, you say you don't agree with flat betting but you're saying to change the primary prog from 1,2 to 1,1. Isn't that flat betting?

[Wendel]

You've got to read the forum. I'll do it for you this time:

E. Clifton Davis’ How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan

Once you are winning 5 units or more per shoe – try this no risk plan:

Day 1: Play 10 shoes @ $5 units = wins $250 – this gives you 10 - $25 unit buy in.

Day 2: Play 10 shoes @ $25 units = wins $1,250 – this gives you 12.5 - $100 unit buy in.

Day 3: Play 10 shoes @ $100 units = wins $5,000 – this gives you 10 - $500 unit buy in.

Day 4: Play 10 shoes @ $500 units = wins $25,000 – this gives you 10 - $1,000 unit buy in.

Day 5: Play 10 shoes @ $1,000 units = wins $50,000 – this gives you 10 - $5,000 unit buy in.

Day 6-10: Play 40 shoes @ $5,000 units = wins $1,081,500

OK, this is an extremely aggressive approach I wrote about 20 years ago. The game was far easier then: So, for today's game ...

Change the word "Day" to "Level"

Drop Level 1 altogether - They don't have $5 tables anymore.

Change "10 shoes" to "40 shoes"

This will give you "40" units at each new buy-in level. That's more practical today.

Also, any time you falter too far you need to repeat the prior level.

Norm was somewhere in the middle of level 6.

While Norm's 1,2 loop was a very good way, in my opinion it was not the best way.

I think the prog within a prog is a more consistent way of achieving +5.

Recognize that when you always follow a 1 with a 2 (mandatory 2) you are effectively flat betting at 1.5 mathematically.

You know my thoughts about flat betting.

However, Norm was using SAP to correct when he got wrong footed - when to change from 1,2 to 2,1.

SAP IS a good application for flat betting - perhaps the only one.

Hi Ellis,

How many units are we using for a stop loss for the +5 system ?

Thanks

Wendel

[Action Mike]

Hi Ellis,

How many units are we using for a stop loss for the +5 system ?

Thanks

Wendel

-5. That way even if you win as many shoes as you lose, you still break even. The +5 system is about taking it slow.

[Guest]

-5. That way even if you win as many shoes as you lose, you still break even. The +5 system is about taking it slow.

I agree. We also need to invoke the NOR rule: No 2 bets until you have won a 1 bet. We can afford to be very cautious at the start since our target is only to average 5.

The other side of that coin is we'll have shoes that take right off and hit +5 early. Here we need to capture 4 and go for higher scores to make up for occassional low scores.

Hey, it's not like we've never seen this done before. Norm paved the way. Lets Make him proud.

[Guest]

Another thing I got thinking about last night.

I might be being TOO cautious saying we should switch to the next higher unit once we've achieved 40 units in the next denomination. I got to thinking that a 20 unit buy-in nearly always carries me through. That might be too tight for some at least at the start. But 40 is too high. Lets make 30 official. Guys are going to do whatever they are comfortable with anyway. Some will try 10 and some of those guys will likely get away with it.

[Guest]

Ellis, I'm confused, you say you don't agree with flat betting but you're saying to change the primary prog from 1,2 to 1,1. Isn't that flat betting?

Ha, an astute question! No, because you are already at your secondary prog after just ONE losing bet. And your secondary prog is 123. But see, it starts you off very careful. You could fairly easily get to +5 W/O betting more than 1 unit - for instance, a P115 from wherever you started betting.

[Guest]

Again, here is the million dollar plan as I wrote it 20 years ago:

E. Clifton Davis’ How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan

Once you are winning 5 units or more per shoe – try this no risk plan:

Day 1: Play 10 shoes @ $5 units = wins $250 – this gives you 10 - $25 unit buy in.

Day 2: Play 10 shoes @ $25 units = wins $1,250 – this gives you 12.5 - $100 unit buy in.

Day 3: Play 10 shoes @ $100 units = wins $5,000 – this gives you 10 - $500 unit buy in.

Day 4: Play 10 shoes @ $500 units = wins $25,000 – this gives you 10 - $1,000 unit buy in.

Day 5: Play 10 shoes @ $1,000 units = wins $50,000 – this gives you 10 - $5,000 unit buy in.

Day 6-10: Play 40 shoes @ $5,000 units = wins $1,081,500

But that was for the game that existed 20 years ago.

The Streak Era:

In the late '80s early '90s we had the Streak era. Casinos existed only in Vegas, Atlantic City and The Bahamas (Nassau).

We saw 20 to 26 in a rows both straight and ZZ on a daily basis in all 3 casino cities. It wasn't uncommon at all to get two in the same shoe. Today we NEVER see long runs in the twenties. We seldom even see 15s.

I was playing full time back then in all 3 casino cities. Casino Bac profits (drop retention) back then was only 3%. BJ was 6% BTW.

But it didn't take long for the players to start playing these super long runs. We started playing up as you win Fibonacis. The casinos eventually lost their shirts on their streak tactics. So that began...

The Chop Era:

All 3 casino cities suddenly went super chop. All 1's and 2s and 3s. We seldom even saw 6 iars.

That was the early mid '90s. THAT is when I wrote the above million dollar plan to a starved Baccarat world. My first seminar in Vegas on the million dollar plan did $88,000 the first night.

It was based on Basic System 40: (After a 1,2 loss on opposites, bet 1 OTR, ON the 3iar. If it loses bet 2 on the next 3iar - and the prog within a prog concept was born.) The shoes in all 3 casino cities were so choppy that at least +5 units was virtually guaranteed. So the million dollar plan was hugely successful. Many went for it and actually got there. At the same time NBJ was hugely successful. The casinos quickly became the biggest buyers of both manuals. My first Bac manual did $667,000 in the first 2 weeks of sales. Meanwhile Jerry Patterson did 6 million in sales on NBJ for which I received 15%. Ha, I was still a little wet behind the ears back then, ha but boy could I play - both games.

The casinos HAD to come up with new strategies in both games. Clumping was born to counteract NBJ. So I designed the First Base Strategy to exploit clumping - always one step ahead of them. But that began the next generation of Baccarat:

The OTB4L Era:

In the late '90 the casinos went OTB4L. So I designed the OTB4L system. That did well for half a decade. But the casinos fired back and began:

The Mixed Shoe Era:

So I designed NOR. That was and still is successful so the casinos are firing back again with:

Preshuffled Designer Shoe Era:

So, don't let anyone ever tell you the game has never changed. They weren't there. I was!

And never let anyone ever tell you the casino can't control exactly what type of game they present. Then can! I know. I was there. I watched them do it over 30 years.

Which brings the evolution of Baccarat to today. This is the toughest game the casinos ever came up with. So, do we give up? Hell no!

We retreat and regroup and fire right back with a brand new million dollar plan. It's tricky so we need to deploy everything weve learned to date and then some. Hence we deploy: BaS40 but this time more cleverly. The shoe decides whether we make our Prog Within a prog OTR or ATR. At the same time we deploy BaOTB4L and again the OR count determines between OTR vs ATR. AND we deploy our secret weapon S40M1. We pull back our goal to +5.

And we slow down our rate of play to accommodate todays tougher game.

Here is our new plan:

E. Clifton Davis's 21st century million dollar plan:

After learning how to average 5 units per shoe against today's game:

Level 1: 25 shoes @ $25 units = $3125 = 30 $100 units

Level 2: 30 shoes @ $100 = $15,000 = 30 $500 units

Level 3: 12 shoes @ $500 = $30,000 = 30 $1000 units

Level 4: 30 shoes @ $1000 = $150,000 = 30 $5000 units

Level 5: 40 shoes @ $5000 = one cool million dollars

Whenever 30 units is insufficient, you need to repeat the prior level so be careful and pay close attention to stop losses.

What do we need to know to accomplish this feat?

1.) How to find the right tables

2.) How to select the right system

3.) Exactly how to play each of the 3 systems

4.) Cash Mgt.

Sure, it sounds easy enough and I've been feeding you good hit and miss information. That is simply not going to cut it for most here.

We need a forum devoted solely to the million dollar program.

We need a manual covering the exact rules of each system.

We need LOTS of shoes and play by plays posted devoted to each system.

Webinars on the finer points.

A seminar on basics.

Hey, did you think a million dollars would be easy?

So, are you up for it?

[modnar]

Sounds Great!!!

I am wondering how casinos will react to this new aproach. It is clear that we got spies on the house.

[Guest]

Sounds Great!!!

I am wondering how casinos will react to this new aproach. It is clear that we got spies on the house.

Yes, we always had them but not as many today. The casinos are confident that they have the game rigged to the ultimate today. What more could they possibly do short of guns? BUT, they are making one huge mistake today. They are presenting a stationary target. Good, that's all we need.

[Guest]

BTW note that in the new plan I over shot the target by nealy $200,000. That should take care of commission and other expenses.