Runs once and for all by Ellis

[Guest]

Oh, and don't forget to give your wife half. Yeah, sure!

[trbfla]

Ellis or someone, we defineately need a million dollar thread with all the rules for ba40 etc

[Guest]

Ellis or someone, we defineately need a million dollar thread with all the rules for ba40 etc

We will!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MVSeahog]

Since S40M1 is for streaky shoes, once we are on the ST run, we stay on the run until we lose and then restart with a 1 on opposite.

All,

OK, the S40M1 bug has bitten me. Being a long time admirer of the S40 play since Ellis brought it up a few years ago, I find this "update" of the play intriguing and with that preamble, here's my first attempt to play it using a previously posted shoe from Quizzical in another thread.

The arrows on the left side show where the "restart" comes in after the losing OTR wager.

Instead of merely glossing over the threads on this, tonight I went in and read them all, sat down and put pen to paper in a serious attempt to make sure I've got this one down. There's something about the way it's developing that's making me look twice at it.

So, I'm open to comments and corrections (most likely) on this short play.

MVS

[Guest]

All,

OK, the S40M1 bug has bitten me. Being a long time admirer of the S40 play since Ellis brought it up a few years ago, I find this "update" of the play intriguing and with that preamble, here's my first attempt to play it using a previously posted shoe from Quizzical in another thread.

The arrows on the left side show where the "restart" comes in after the losing OTR wager.

Instead of merely glossing over the threads on this, tonight I went in and read them all, sat down and put pen to paper in a serious attempt to make sure I've got this one down. There's something about the way it's developing that's making me look twice at it.

So, I'm open to comments and corrections (most likely) on this short play.

MVS

For streaky shoes low in 2s.

Nevertheless, good play. You got to +5 in 19 bets in spite of high 2s (normal is 2 every 16 plays) And in spite of no long runs. This goes to demonstrate the resiliency of this system. There is one further trick to it that would have got you an additional unit at play 37. So you would have finished at +10 in 37 bets in spite of the 3 early 2s. Good job! Good system! 19% PA.

Sometimes in borderline consistently short length ST runs it simply doesn't pay to stay on ST runs forever. In this case, you would have been much better off to jump ship after the run went 3 or 4. Either way would have got you considerably more units. The clue was when your OR count went plus! Would have got you about 5 or 6 more units. See that?

[Guest]

Guys, MVS, you played this correctly to the way I first described S40M1 with a 235 secondary prog. But we don't need to be that aggressive when we are only trying to achieve +5. So I changed the secondary prog to a safer and universal prog of 123 that we can deploy on all 3 +5 systems.

So I'll replay it for you using the 123 secondary prog. to a score of +10 - twice what we are shooting for.

But also look at the OR count. With this high an OR count together with the fact that we've seen no long ST runs I'm not going to stay on ST runs past 4 circles. That means it would take a 7 or more ST to hurt me - not likely with this high an OR count.

You'll see that in spite of the fact I am playing more conservatively I get to +5 and +10 quicker with only two 2 bets and one 3 bet. I also achieve a much higher PA.

I'll put all my secondary prog bets in red so you can see how the secondary prog works with S40M1. I think this is all the aggression we need for a +5 goal.

Whoops - at play 11 change my score to +2

+10 in 26 bets in spite of the 3 2s!

Bet less, won more! See that?

[trbfla]

Ellis,

On this shoe are some great examples of the s40....

But here is a question-you played right thru the +5 to bigger wins. Earlier it was suggested that after 5 wins we wait out 10 hands and play the shoe anew. While it worked out for you in this shoe, I see the benefit to +5 to get out before the worm turns. So I guess my question is, how do we know when to sit out 10 vs. playing onward.....does the or count help us, is it a personal choice?

[Guest]

Ellis,

On this shoe are some great examples of the s40....

But here is a question-you played right thru the +5 to bigger wins. Earlier it was suggested that after 5 wins we wait out 10 hands and play the shoe anew. While it worked out for you in this shoe, I see the benefit to +5 to get out before the worm turns. So I guess my question is, how do we know when to sit out 10 vs. playing onward.....does the or count help us, is it a personal choice?

Exactly right and an excellent point. It took me 16 bets to get to +5. That is not a hot shoe. I definitely would have quit at +5. However, if I were already at +5 say by play 10 or 12 I AM in a hot shoe so I would capture +4 and continue.

I don't think a certain number of hands is the best way to reenter. Look for a good reentry point instead that gives you an advantage. Like if all the 3s are going to 4 or all the 4s are staying 4. Use the shoe history to give you a good reentry point.

In this case, had I quit at 5 I might have jumped right back in on the ZZ run.

The question is: is the shoe still going good or is it starting to waver?

Is this shoe my best opportunity or can I likely find a better opportunity at another table?

Casino savvy! The game is about opportunity.

In this example I was merely comparing to MVS's play: 123 vs 235 on the secondary prog. Jumping off of straight runs in a high OR count.

IF you are not seeing long straight runs why stay on them forever? Now ZZs - our primary and default bet IS opposites with S40M1 so sure stay ON those.

For instance at Sands Bethlehem the guys quickly reported to me that on their 80 or so tote boards, the lonest ST run was 6 and very few of those but the ZZs were going! Soon after that I hit an 18 ZZ.

That's what I mean by casino savvy. Note EVERYTHING you see. Be alert to opportunity.

[Guest]

Hi Ellis and gang. I did miss something somewhere on this example . I can follow it per given directions by Ellis . But am wondering where the 4-iar came from to tell you to change sides when this occures at hand 4 to hand 5 . Or was this a shoe in progress and jumped in knowing it would not go past 4-iar ? .... Any help would be most greatfull .

[Guest]

Hi Ellis and gang. I did miss something somewhere on this example . I can follow it per given directions by Ellis . But am wondering where the 4-iar came from to tell you to change sides when this occures at hand 4 to hand 5 . Or was this a shoe in progress and jumped in knowing it would not go past 4-iar ? .... Any help would be most greatfull .

Hi Max!

Well much to the chagrin of some of the members here, I am not one for staying on runs unless I'm seeing the darn things. Note that in S40 mode 2 I tell you to get off the run after 2 OTR bets and in mode 3 after only 1. This is because in my experience, getting off runs at a prudent point wins a whole lot more units than staying on all runs until you force a loss.

But see, I was around when there WERE lots of runs and over the years I watched them vanish.

HOWEVER in Vegas with their preshuffled cards we see a lot of runs so when in Vegas....

But at my home casino, Tunica, I get off of them because they virtually never go.

In normal S40 my instruction is get off of all runs at 5. THAT is usually one play too late in my experience. But our Vegas players don't do that. They stay on all runs because they usually see long runs. And well they should.

The best way to settle this discussion is "Go by what you see where you play".

But shoes starting with more than a 4iar are so very rare that I always bet against a starting 4 iar. I've got 3 chances to be right. After that, in this shoe the OR count started climbing, so by the next 4 the immediate history is super chop and my - OR count has disappeared.

Here is the way I look at it:

Suppose this shoe started P51 instead of P42:

Fine, a stay on the run bettor is going to be +1 at play 6.

Betting against the run after 4, I'm going to be at +2 at play 6.

See that?

For him to do 1 unit better than me, the run has to go 6.

But back at play 4 the odds the run would go 6 are 1 out of 4 for him.

But back at play 4 the odds the next play is an opposite putting me 2 ahead of him are 1 out of 2.

I like my odds a whole lot better!

4s occur one every 32 plays

6s occur one every 128 plays

But I also do better on 5s. See that?

It's not such a simple decision is it?

But I'll succumb to - Go by what you see where you are playing.

[Guest]

Thanks Ellis , cleared up the mistery for me . My home casio is similar to this example shoe . Yes i do get some 5iar up tp 11iar at times ... but not to often .... Loved your explanation ... Thanks again ....

mike

[PurpleInk]

Thnx for posting the shoe with explanation.

Both S40m1 and BaS40 use a secondary progression of 123. Previously S40m1 used 235. What is the difference between the two as they are currently used?

[Action Mike]

Ellis,

First, lets think about the fact as to why get off a run when you are already on it until it ends? You only have 1 bet to lose, and no pre-defined number that you could win. Regardless of the statistics of numbers of 4 IAR or 5 IAR, etc, the truth is we cannot use long term statistics to win short term. Better to "ride it till she bucks you".

Given that, I am also looking at the progression in a progression comments. While I agree it could (and likely will work), the potential benefit is small as opposed to 2HI, and the potential downfall is losing 3 to 5 units. For a +5 win (which is called not being greedy) I don't see the need. Also reducing the risk is the key.

Its funny, when I first came to the seminar and started reading the forum, I thought the teachings were too conservative. I had a big bankroll and was betting black and preferred U1D1, regardless of the system. After 6 figures worth of losses from REALLY BAD nights over the last 2 years, I realized that conservative is the only way to win in the long term. Since moving to 2HI, I've seen my consistency go up substantially. The nights I stray from 2Hi, well, at least I don't do that as often any more

[Guest]

Ellis,

First, lets think about the fact as to why get off a run when you are already on it until it ends? You only have 1 bet to lose, and no pre-defined number that you could win. Regardless of the statistics of numbers of 4 IAR or 5 IAR, etc, the truth is we cannot use long term statistics to win short term. Better to "ride it till she bucks you".

Given that, I am also looking at the progression in a progression comments. While I agree it could (and likely will work), the potential benefit is small as opposed to 2HI, and the potential downfall is losing 3 to 5 units. For a +5 win (which is called not being greedy) I don't see the need. Also reducing the risk is the key.

Its funny, when I first came to the seminar and started reading the forum, I thought the teachings were too conservative. I had a big bankroll and was betting black and preferred U1D1, regardless of the system. After 6 figures worth of losses from REALLY BAD nights over the last 2 years, I realized that conservative is the only way to win in the long term. Since moving to 2HI, I've seen my consistency go up substantially. The nights I stray from 2Hi, well, at least I don't do that as often any more

Well, wherever I play, whenever I play, I first check ALL the tote boards. One of the things I check is runs both ST and ZZ. I'm looking for a clue as yo how to play the overall conditions I see. Different casinos have vastly different conditions at different times of the day. You can't play the same way every time you play. You are much better off to play the conditions you see.

Sometimes I stay on the runs and sometimes I don't - depending on the conditions I just observed.

Normally 1 out of 32 3s goes to 7. Did I observe more or less than that? Then I play accordingly. Sure, staying on runs does much better when the 3 goes to 7. So normally thats right 1 out of 32 times. But in that case betting against the run was right 31 out of 32 times. Sure, you make a little money betting 1 unit down a run now and then. But look at all the money you lost meanwhile. Those chips add up. Some days the tote boards are telling you to stay ON runs until you lose. Other days the tote boards are telling you to take your profits on the short runs by betting against them. My point is neither way is right all the time.

Look, I invented the statement that you only lose once betting on runs. But that does't mean it is always best.

Once you grasp the entire prog with in a prog concept, you'll see that it is an act of conservatism, not an act of aggression. 2Hi is fine but you need a plan for when you lose your 1,2. That 3 unit loss is not gonna go away by itself. It needs a little help. The prog within a prog concept is not new. It is 25 years old. It was played successfully by a lot of players for a long time. But it was only played with S40 and only ON 3 iars - always on, never against. Half the time against would have worked better but you need a way of knowing which half.

But not all shoes are basically choppy S40 shoes. More than half are either neutral or streaky, hence OTB4L and S40M1. But we don't play them their normal way - not for a target of only +5. We play the much more conservative +5 way - prog within a prog.

Consider that you've gone from one extreme to the other - from U1D1 to 2Hi. There is a happy middle ground. Don't tie your hands. You need a safe way to deal with 1,2 losses. You can't simply ignore them but you don't need to go to 3 either. Look at the shoe I posted. I only got to 3 once and I only got to 2 twice. Usually I don't get to 3 at all. But that particular shoe had high 2s. We won it handily anyway. But we needed that one key 3 bet to do it. 3 bets are not a bad thing when applied very sparingly. Buy tieing your hands by never betting 3 - now THAT's a bad thing. Many shoes have a way of backing you into a corner. You need an occassional escape device - one with clout. That time we used the 3 to beat high 2s. We can't always count on low 2s just because the shoe started that way.

[Action Mike]

Consider that you've gone from one extreme to the other - from U1D1 to 2Hi. There is a happy middle ground. Don't tie your hands. You need a safe way to deal with 1,2 losses. You can't simply ignore them but you don't need to go to 3 either. Look at the shoe I posted. I only got to 3 once and I only got to 2 twice. Usually I don't get to 3 at all. But that particular shoe had high 2s. We won it handily anyway. But we needed that one key 3 bet to do it. 3 bets are not a bad thing when applied very sparingly. Buy tieing your hands by never betting 3 - now THAT's a bad thing. Many shoes have a way of backing you into a corner. You need an occassional escape device - one with clout. That time we used the 3 to beat high 2s. We can't always count on low 2s just because the shoe started that way.

I've found the shoes that I play, more often than not make drastic changes in their patterns somewhere between play 40 and play 60. Because of this, a progression in a progression that started earlier in the shoe, is still very much a moving target later in the shoe. There is only one safe escape route. My feet. To add clout to it, find some fresh air. Like you recently said, we don't need to win every shoe. Playing 2Hi, it isn't that hard to recover from a 1-2 loss. But a 1-2-3 loss really hurts. Besides that, if our rules state to not progress if you are at -2 and we are supposed to quit at a +5, then where would we ever place a 3 bet? If we are on a shoe Hi in 2s, we should be using OT4BL. If we need 3 bets to get out of a shoe, then we are doing something wrong and there is a better table somewhere.

[Guest]

I've found the shoes that I play, more often than not make drastic changes in their patterns somewhere between play 40 and play 60. Because of this, a progression in a progression that started earlier in the shoe, is still very much a moving target later in the shoe. There is only one safe escape route. My feet. To add clout to it, find some fresh air. Like you recently said, we don't need to win every shoe. Playing 2Hi, it isn't that hard to recover from a 1-2 loss. But a 1-2-3 loss really hurts. Besides that, if our rules state to not progress if you are at -2 and we are supposed to quit at a +5, then where would we ever place a 3 bet? If we are on a shoe Hi in 2s, we should be using OT4BL. If we need 3 bets to get out of a shoe, then we are doing something wrong and there is a better table somewhere.

Ha, "my feet". I like that. But I don't think you are fully grasping the concept yet. Few are, if any. We are never betting a 123. Ever. Assuming we lose the 1,2 we are betting a 121 stop, with the second 1 the first bet of your secondary prog which can be ON or against the run depending on the OR count. Then if we lose the whole 121, later down the shoe assuming we lose 1,2 again we bet 2 instead of 1. That is the 2nd bet of the secondary prog. only if we haven't hit +5 meanwhile. If we lose that 2 and still don't hit +5 by the next run, which is quite rare, then after the next 1,2 loss we bet 3. But usually we are out of the shoe before that - assuming we are playing the right system in the first place.

So our WHOLE prog is: 121122123. That's 9 freaking bets. How often are you going to even get to the 3 W/O winning +5 first???

It so happens that if MVS had played BaOTB4L that shoe with his secondary prog against ST runs and ON ZZ runs, he would have hit +5 at play 32 W/O ever incurring a 3 bet. But 31 bets is a lot of bets to make just to get to +5. Usually we get there in half that many bets. But it demonstrates that both systems would have got to +5.

But the best system to play that shoe was BaS40 ON the runs for 1 bet. You are already at +5 at play 13 and at +10 at play 24 W/O even coming close to a 3 bet.

It is interesting that all 3 +5 systems get to +5 in that shoe and two of them get to +10, together incurring only ONE 3 bet. The shoe was not that easy with the OR count ranging from -3 to +6 so quickly.

I think this demonstrates how good the approach is and how rare 3 bets are.

You are talking about plays 40 to 60. Why? We are seldom in a shoe that long.

But correct, Hi 2s is BaOTB4L

Hi 1's is BaS40

Hi streaks ST or ZZ is S40M1

Strong Side is still F3

Look, we ARE playing 2H1 the vast majority of the time and in most shoes. But betting that there won't be 3 2s before there is a 3 or 3 3s before there is a 4 is a very good bet. We will win that bet the vast majority of the time. And of course anytime you win any bet in your secondary prog you go back to 1. The same with your primary prog. That is why you are seeing so many 1 bets.

You like betting on runs. Fine! Do it with BaS40. You are betting 3s will go to 4. That's a pretty good OTR bet because there is always at least one 4+ in a shoe. But then betting a 4 will go to 5??? I need to see 5+s before I'll make that bet. There is an average of ONE 5+ per shoe so on avg I'm going to lose that bet more often than I win it and that is the ONLY thing that counts.

Hey, if you are trying to make +25 like you used to be doing when you got in the habit of always betting on runs, thats fine. Betting on runs can get you to +25 now and then. Who knows when a 14iar is going to pop up? BUT, we are no longer trying to get to +25. We are shooting for +5 so we have to put on our +5 hat and make the bet that wins the most often. If OTR is winning the most often - fine. But if it isn't, don't bet on it. That bet will ruin a lot of +5s. It's not the '90s anymore.

[Guest]

In a way it was good for MVS to post that particular shoe and then play it with the wrong system. It's a good demonstation of the 3 bet. But to get to that 3 the shoe incurred the 3rd 2iar inside of 10 plays W/O a 3. Think about how rare that is. Shit happens but not every shoe. Once the OR count went strong to plus if he hadn't started with BaS40, he should have switched to it. When you get to a 3 bet it usually means you are playing the wrong system. Go back and check.

[trbfla]

In a way it was good for MVS to post that particular shoe and then play it with the wrong system. It's a good demonstation of the 3 bet. But to get to that 3 the shoe incurred the 3rd 2iar inside of 10 plays W/O a 3. Think about how rare that is. Shit happens but not every shoe. Once the OR count went strong to plus if he hadn't started with BaS40, he should have switched to it. When you get to a 3 bet it usually means you are playing the wrong system. Go back and check.

Ellis what makes bas40 different then s40 and what makes baotb4l

Different then otb4l

[LENNY181]

Ellis, This is a quote you recently posted "Once the OR count went strong to plus if he hadn't started with BaS40, he should have switched to it." Will you please tell us what Number is "strong to plus"?? Are you talkin the O/R count +3? or another Number?? Thanks

[Sakana]

I have asked this question before and did not receive an answer.

Ellis, Keith, Steve Spataro and other instructors and top NOR players -

"What percent of hands do you actually win?"

This happens to be a very crucial piece of information, regardless,

whether one flat bets or uses a progression.

Please, do NOT keep me in the dark on this.

Thank you in advance.

Sakana

[BigVic]

I have asked this question before and did not receive an answer.

Ellis, Keith, Steve Spataro and other instructors and top NOR players -

"What percent of hands do you actually win?"

This happens to be a very crucial piece of information, regardless,

whether one flat bets or uses a progression.

Please, do NOT keep me in the dark on this.

Thank you in advance.

Sakana

Honestly I've never have kept track of my percentage of winning hands per shoe/session/etc. However I will say this. If you aren't winning close to 50% of your hands in a small sample say per shoe or at least per session than you're not seeing the game good enough to be successful at it. You can win with less but it makes it "interesting" when you're only winning 1 out of 3 hands or worse.

All of this is just opinion of course.

[CdnChamer]

I have asked this question before and did not receive an answer.

Ellis, Keith, Steve Spataro and other instructors and top NOR players -

"What percent of hands do you actually win?"

This happens to be a very crucial piece of information, regardless,

whether one flat bets or uses a progression.

Please, do NOT keep me in the dark on this.

Thank you in advance.

Sakana

To answer your question, I have had a great deal of success with NOR yet I am no longer playing the method.

My win shoe rate when I last played NOR was 82% for a +5 unit or greater walk-away target not Ellis's claim to fame 20+ units.

NOR works very well but 4D when played my latest method is even higher. I AM NOT DISCLOSING MY LATEST METHOD SO PLEASE DONT WASTE TIME ON POSTING THE QUESTION...THANKS

CC

[Sarrom]

I'm glad to hear you're having more success with your new method and understand if you don't want to share.

However, could you kindly share how much higher your shoe win rate is as well as your PA? Has it gone up?

Thanks

[CdnChamer]

I'm glad to hear you're having more success with your new method and understand if you don't want to share.

However, could you kindly share how much higher your shoe win rate is as well as your PA? Has it gone up?

Thanks

Sure.... My win rate on back testing of shoes is 94% and my current live play win rate is 100%

Sorry, I have not bothered to calculate a PA%, I did not considerate it due to high success rate of shoes tested and played live.

That beats the heck out of 82%.... What would you do?

4D lives on... If Ellis only knew.... As for Keith... He's still working on some natural 8 & 9 theory.... Pffft!

I'm not saying I don't like Keith or anything, I'm just don't agree with what ever he blurts out of his mouth without really thinking things out well before endorsing anything. The guy should be smarter than this.

CC

[MVSeahog]

All,

Well, now that I'm on the S40M1 kick, I had to go through some of my usual testing routines, to include BetPhoenix for a real time test.

Actually this was originally supposed to just be a quick run of S40M1 to test the iPad and "Puffin" browser as the standard "Safari" browser won't do Adobe Flash and that's what runs on the BetPhoenix live table games. Once I got the "Puffin" browser installed, the Flash graphics come right up. Test one worked and that's all I'll be using the Puffin browser for, online baccarat!

The second test was to run S40M1 again and although I do see the logic in leaving the OTR run after 4 IAR, I just don't get a good feeling about it, especially when BetPhoenix has a tendency to really drop some decent runs in there. Not so much on the oppostites, but they can be streaky night after night.

Without further adieu, tonight's BPH shoes from about an hour and a half ago! Perhaps some of you were even on it.

Nothing was defined here between stopping the runs at 4 or continuing on as they evened out so.

I probably should have pushed up the wagers on the long run earlier, but even at $10, I'm playing it for real and I always move up after winning five in a row, not four.

Notice that there were only FOUR ONES in that entire shoe. I got a dropped connection prior to the last hand which is why it ends at 53.

MVS