Shoe Check

[ChiefAurelius]

Hi All,

Funny we don't have a dedicated thread just for checking shoes.

Might be nice to keep it all in one location..?

Anyway, here's one I was looking for some guidance on how to play better. I only paper traded it but got creamed. Any thoughts to show me the error of my ways?

It was an online casino. Hand shuffle. No info on shuffle time or previous shoe, but I did notice that at this casino a heap of picture cards come out in clumps (at the one time).

P 311211132212

B 235122122

P 12115211114

P 11112162

Also, one quick clarification, if you're betting U1D2M2 and the OR count is positive, which one wins? That is, should we be in Mode 3 or Mode 2 (for U1D2M2)?

Thanks all.

Good luck

Chief

[ChiefAurelius]

C'mon guys.

The system tells me that 53 members in this private forum have read this post, did that shoe really beat you all? Maybe I'm not doing as poorly as I thought!

Best of luck

Chief

[MVSeahog]

Hi All,

It was an online casino. Hand shuffle. No info on shuffle time or previous shoe, but I did notice that at this casino a heap of picture cards come out in clumps (at the one time).

P 311211132212

B 235122122

P 12115211114

P 11112162

Also, one quick clarification, if you're betting U1D2M2 and the OR count is positive, which one wins? That is, should we be in Mode 3 or Mode 2 (for U1D2M2)?

Thanks all.

Good luck

Chief

Hmm, just noticed it tonight and I'll make a run on it after dinner and post my results.

MVS

[MVSeahog]

OK, here's my play on that shoe.

This is not NOR. I've been running using the slightly out of date "OT+" play that was posted up in the forum a few months ago.

Why? Because I can run it, literally, on the fly. There is no need for me to write anything down if I don't want to. I can jump into a shoe just by looking back for the first "4iar" or a nice 1-2-1 and I know instantly where and what to start in on.

I do wait out losing streaks as notated by the "-" entries where an appropriate wager would have been made.

I was tracking SAP with it but then I'm back to using paper again and sometimes I don't run with a chart.

So, this was played as I would run it "for real". As I struggled in this shoe for quite some time, I was more than happy to see MY target of +6 finally show up and get out of it! The wagering is a straight 1-2-3 and wait for a win after any losses of 3iar.

So far my longest "losing" streak of shoes is only two in a row so I can live with that. I'm a conservative player and it does cost me a lot of units in some shoes, but I can deal with it as my play and plans are based on monthly play and not on a day to day or shoe to shoe comparison. With December about to finish, I'll have my yearly "final" numbers and they're looking good with three weeks to go!

MVS

Edited December 4, 2014 by MVSeahog
Spull chukker is broke

[ChiefAurelius]

Thanks MVS!

You're a scholar and a gentleperson (can't resist having a dig at the politically correct crowd!).

I'll digest your thoughts and come back to you.

Thanks particularly for keeping the esprit de corps alive!

Cheers

Chief

[trbfla]

Mvs,

Good morning. Just curious if your stop win is at +6, what is your hard limit stop loss per shoe?

Thanks

T

[trillion]

MVSeahog, could you point me to which thread on the forum (for OT+) so I could possibly follow your shoe and how you went about placing your bets on Chiefs shoe

OK, here's my play on that shoe.

This is not NOR. I've been running using the slightly out of date "OT+" play that was posted up in the forum a few months ago.

Why? Because I can run it, literally, on the fly. There is no need for me to write anything down if I don't want to. I can jump into a shoe just by looking back for the first "4iar" or a nice 1-2-1 and I know instantly where and what to start in on.

I do wait out losing streaks as notated by the "-" entries where an appropriate wager would have been made.

I was tracking SAP with it but then I'm back to using paper again and sometimes I don't run with a chart.

So, this was played as I would run it "for real". As I struggled in this shoe for quite some time, I was more than happy to see MY target of +6 finally show up and get out of it! The wagering is a straight 1-2-3 and wait for a win after any losses of 3iar.

So far my longest "losing" streak of shoes is only two in a row so I can live with that. I'm a conservative player and it does cost me a lot of units in some shoes, but I can deal with it as my play and plans are based on monthly play and not on a day to day or shoe to shoe comparison. With December about to finish, I'll have my yearly "final" numbers and they're looking good with three weeks to go!

MVS

[ECD]

MVS,

Great idea to wait after losing the 3 bet. This keeps you from loosing too much in a switch, or going up too high in a progression. This looks like a promising way to play OvT.

Way

[MVSeahog]

Mvs,

Good morning. Just curious if your stop win is at +6, what is your hard limit stop loss per shoe?

Thanks

T

To answer both questions the first one is -10 for my "stop limit".

If the shoe starts out pretty easy, I'll make a "test" wager from +6, just to see if the runs will continue. If they do, I'll play on but stop if it gets back to +7 or +6 in a losing streak.

The name of the thread here in the forum for this "OT+" mechanical system play is:

A Simple Million Dollar System

The thread is about 80+ messages or so by now but the basic idea is right at the start.

It's probably one of the main reasons I read EVERYTHING on the board. You just never know when something might just grab your attention and you can work with it a bit to perhaps make it work with your own style of play.

Of course a good understanding and fast play at OTB4L and TBL is a must when running "on the fly".

In the basic system, not using any stops, the losing pattern is 2,1,1,1,2,1,1,1.

MVS (if my failing memory hasn't left me yet)

[ztomsk]

To answer both questions the first one is -10 for my "stop limit".

If the shoe starts out pretty easy, I'll make a "test" wager from +6, just to see if the runs will continue. If they do, I'll play on but stop if it gets back to +7 or +6 in a losing streak.

The name of the thread here in the forum for this "OT+" mechanical system play is:

A Simple Million Dollar System

The thread is about 80+ messages or so by now but the basic idea is right at the start.

It's probably one of the main reasons I read EVERYTHING on the board. You just never know when something might just grab your attention and you can work with it a bit to perhaps make it work with your own style of play.

Of course a good understanding and fast play at OTB4L and TBL is a must when running "on the fly".

In the basic system, not using any stops, the losing pattern is 2,1,1,1,2,1,1,1.

MVS (if my failing memory hasn't left me yet)

Nice to see I'm not the only one using this. My personal favorite way to play to date.

People really ought to test it out where they play and see how they like it.

[Fedda]

Hello! I had this shoe yesterday and wonder how you guys would've played it?

I think S40m2 would do okay but it's not obvious because of the 3 in the beginning.

My online live-dealer casino keeps spitting out these kind of shoes. What's the best way to handle this circumstance?

I had a hard time deciding what to play even when it's finished.

B1413112142

B121111612112

B1151422122

Thanks.

/ff

[ECD]

Hello! I had this shoe yesterday and wonder how you guys would've played it?

I think S40m2 would do okay but it's not obvious because of the 3 in the beginning.

My online live-dealer casino keeps spitting out these kind of shoes. What's the best way to handle this circumstance?

I had a hard time deciding what to play even when it's finished.

B1413112142

B121111612112

B1151422122

Thanks.

/ff

Hi FF, looks like MDB+ wins 5 of 5 signals, all on the first bet. These type of shoes are so much fun -- the other players at the table notice that you only bet occasionally, but then you win every single bet at large units. Happens frequently with MDB+.

[Fedda]

Hi FF, looks like MDB+ wins 5 of 5 signals, all on the first bet. These type of shoes are so much fun -- the other players at the table notice that you only bet occasionally, but then you win every single bet at large units. Happens frequently with MDB+.

Yeah I see that now. I've tried to avoid MDB+ because this is regular cards. When least expected the two's are coming at full speed!

Hmm, maybe I should reconsider..

Thanks.

[cashout]

Hi Way2fast,

Wouldn't this be a lost progression with MDB+ since it did not finish? 22122

The last 2 did not go to three so it would have list a second progression correct or do you stop betting

MDB+ after what hand number? Can you play each one of the MDB+ signals for us. Please indicate which ones are the signals and the one you bet on. Thanks a million

[Guest]

Hi Way2fast,

Wouldn't this be a lost progression with MDB+ since it did not finish? 22122

The last 2 did not go to three so it would have list a second progression correct or do you stop betting

MDB+ after what hand number? Can you play each one of the MDB+ signals for us. Please indicate which ones are the signals and the one you bet on. Thanks a million

The shoe ends with 422122. You might bet the 1 stays 1 because you are betting on a first liner after 3 2nd liners. But you are not going to bet on a 3+iar

with only 2 hands left in the shoe. That is what we mean when we say don't start a prog you can't finish.

[Guest]

Hi FF, looks like MDB+ wins 5 of 5 signals, all on the first bet. These type of shoes are so much fun -- the other players at the table notice that you only bet occasionally, but then you win every single bet at large units. Happens frequently with MDB+.

Right, and had you been betting a 345.....!

[ECD]

Hi Way2fast,

Wouldn't this be a lost progression with MDB+ since it did not finish? 22122

The last 2 did not go to three so it would have list a second progression correct or do you stop betting

MDB+ after what hand number? Can you play each one of the MDB+ signals for us. Please indicate which ones are the signals and the one you bet on. Thanks a million

Hi Cashout,

If I was playing this table live, and not after the fact, I PROBABLY would not have taken that signal that 2 goes to 3. While I don't have have and strict rules, there a couple things which would impact that decision. First, my goal is 5 units per shoe. If I reach that early in the shoe, I will typically keep playing, but at this late point in the shoe, in most cases I would have quit at +5. This is why I did not take the last two signals (the one you mentioned but also the 1 stays 1 that Ellis pointed out). Now if I was feelong more aggressive at the time, I might have taken both of those signals and only win 3 units in this shoe. For example, if I was winning shoe after shoe and up significantly, I may be more likely to take the signal, especially because a 2 goes to 3 is the second strongest signal based on my database of plays. In this case, I'm not sure FF posted the whole shoe (only 61 plays?), so who knows how it would have turned out. I'm not going to use hidsight to tell you the best way to play the shoe. so while I can't tell you I would absolutely not have taken the signal, I think I would have likely exited at the +5.

I am in Vegas for the weekend and can't scan anything. When I have some time I will try to explain exactly where all the signals are.

Way

[ECD]

Right, and had you been betting a 345.....!

Ellis, do you think a 345 progression is a good idea for MDB+? The way I see MDB+, it is not a series of individual bets, but rather a singular bet on a particular event outcome (i.e. there won't be five 3s without a 2). That singular bet could have three "installments", but the idea is that if you are right on the beting proposition, you win. With a 345 you can be "right" and still lose 2 units. The third bet has the highest win rate, yuet every time we win it we lose 2 units? Also, when the goal is only 5 units per shoe, betting 3 units as the base seems a little aggressive and unnecessary.

[BronxAl]

Ellis, do you think a 345 progression is a good idea for MDB+? The way I see MDB+, it is not a series of individual bets, but rather a singular bet on a particular event outcome (i.e. there won't be five 3s without a 2). That singular bet could have three "installments", but the idea is that if you are right on the beting proposition, you win. With a 345 you can be "right" and still lose 2 units. The third bet has the highest win rate, yuet every time we win it we lose 2 units? Also, when the goal is only 5 units per shoe, betting 3 units as the base seems a little aggressive and unnecessary.

Then your next bet will be 3 units. Many instances the first bet wins more often, when you win your 1st bet of 3 units your up 1 unit not down 2 units. You now RECOVERED from a losing series. Betting 3-4-5 brings your wins to escalate much higher when wining 50%+.

[Gagliardi]

Hello Everyone, With the example shoe posted can anyone write a score card so I can examine how the MDB + would work.

Thank-You

Merry Christmas to everyone

[ChiefAurelius]

Yeah I see that now. I've tried to avoid MDB+ because this is regular cards. When least expected the two's are coming at full speed!

Hmm, maybe I should reconsider..

Thanks.

Hi Fatherfred!

Happy New Year to you and to all of my dear compadres at BTC!

My apologies for not replying to this sooner. University assignments just take me out of the picture some times.

I've attached my take on your shoe.

Fatherfred Scorecard 18Dec14.PDF

Let me walk you through it...

First, I still suck at MDB+, so until I get better at it, I'm sticking with the arrows I currently have in my quiver.

As you said, it's regular cards (as are many live casino online options ;-) ) so I presume that it will be NOR+ or O/T.

Secondly, I've been paper trading a lot of online shoes lately. A (marginally) older and much wiser head on this forum, told me how many shoes he has paper traded to hone his skills. I've done a lot (approx. 300) but he's done about ten times mine. Don't get me wrong, I'm throwing down real cash, but on the tightrope between making money and learning, I still have a learning lean (but it's changing!).

Third, as MVS proposed earlier in this thread, I'm tracking O/T. WITH ONE REFINEMENT. As you can see on the scorecard, column 3 is reserved for a double gauge.

On top is the OR count (I love my OR count!). On the bottom is the OT count. Usually one of them is leading the way. If both of them are screaming at you, go all in.

Sometimes however, they contradict. I still have not mastered Net Betting yet, so maybe the leaders in this area can add something here, but a conflict between the two is, to me, a signal to be cautious.

Four, the O/T system says if you see 2iar, it's time to go OTB4L. I don't trust the Terrible Twos that much, so I usually wait until there are two in a pattern (ie PPBB or PPBPP...) until I am prepared to back it. I'm pretty sure that this was one of Way2fast's gems of genius. Keeping in mind that if you decide to bet a negative progression as I did on this one, that it might be just as good for you if the shoe doesn't present the OTB4L cleanly (in this example it led to a continuation of TB4L which was profitable) - sometimes, but not always. By that I mean, look at hands 12-13. The negative progression saved my ass, but still cost me money (thus higher risk).

Five, you'll note that at hand 20 I still did not switch to OTB4L. To be honest that could have gone either way. I chose not to switch based on the gauge in column 3. Whilst the OR had fluctuated backwards and forwards across a small band (usually OTB4L) from the start, the bottom indicator (OT) was showing TB4L, and was clearly contrary to switching to OTB4L. That's why I hung in there a while longer with TB4L, and did the same at play 36 BUT reversed at play 57 as the OT count had gone from -8 up to -4 (heading in the right direction). Also, the top count (OR) had started to head up into S40 territory and I thought the combination of the two were a good signal).

Six, I did miss the last play (which I would have failed anyway) to bring my total to +14.

Finally (yes, I'm bringing this puppy in to land!), you'll see at play 36 I cut the progression. I agree with MVS that you need to cut the loss at some point. If your selections are not coming in, it's wandered to close to random to assist you or you're just not picking it. The reason this progression was cut however, as opposed to the others which continued on to successful 4 bets, was that the indicators were telling me a different story. I had to wait to see what the gauge was telling me. Prior to this, the gauge was backing me (still no guarantee of success, but it's the bias we're after isn't it?).

I agree Fatherfred. There are a lot of these shoes like this out there in online land. There was one particular casino that was spitting out shoes like this 19 out of 20 times. I paper traded them for weeks and weeks. When I registered they didn't take my jurisdiction!!!! So I called it a day, and went looking for another online provider of live hands.

One thing about online that is really important though: Imagine the amount of work that Ellis did constructing his mental model of Bacc play. That involved countless visits, composed of countless hours in front of shoes that might have been good, bad or ugly. You can do the same quantum of work from your home PC. That's an invaluable resource that we have that hasn't existed before.

Also, considering that online still makes its commission off all of your B bets, to me that represents a significant threat to bricks and mortar casinos. Those suckers are not cheap to run. Lucky there's a lot of suckers to keep those suckers fed!

Best wishes to all for 2015

Chief

PS the 'M' of column 4 stands for Mode. I leave my notes/theorising in this column to track my rationale for betting upon later review.

Edited January 1, 2015 by ChiefAurelius
Added PS with explanation