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How the cards fall


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Interesting to note that of the three players that Ellis holds up as examples who have won over a million...none are proponents of negative progressions. If that doesn't tell you something...you need to find something else to do nights.

Add to that list PJ (one of the most knowledgeable and respected of the "old timers" ) who is a master of the 1 2 Loop and Pando... CT and Andrea...consistent winners and all acknowledge the risks involved with NPs.

With that sort of endorsement from the best of the best...do I need to hit you over the head with a blunt instrument?

Read my lips..."Don't waste your  time farting about searching for the best Negative Progression to give you a mathematical edge...it doesn't exist. There is no easy way. The only way forward is bloody hard work"

You can do it if you believe you can do it. Dissect the information available on BTC and listen to the ones who have gone before. The interaction between members seems to be flourishing ATM. I don't know what's happening on the "elite" BTC forums but I assume that it's the same there.

People..."Listen and learn"...and WIN!

BTW: An interesting point...Both Norm and Way2Fast have something in common. Their balls dropped big time (Oz speak for gutsy players)...Mine not so much...LOL...but I'm getting there. Seriously...Amongst other things, it takes balls to win at this game...remember that grasshoppers. (Those who watched the Karate Kid movie will know what I mean by that term) LOL 

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Thank you nikolasyue for sharing the priceless treasures of the past that are timeless.  It does my heart and spirit good, to know I am on the right path....with a lot to learn and improve upon.  

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Oz.....please know.....and I won't pretend to speak for others, I read, listen, understand and embrace to my heart and mind everything that you so graciously share.  It's like a "feeding frenzy" lately.  As a Master Chef, you are serving up some of the most delicious recipes found anywhere.  Thank you, and dam it tastes good.

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Not too much to discuss after reading this thread

Just a lot of hard work and practise 

I'm sure a lot of questions have been answered for many members

 

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On 8/11/2016 at 8:41 AM, brad01 said:

A question for you guys about RD1

I studied this but I mostly use it for repeats following repeats (repeats only)

The rule: bet straight down after losing to a 1 or a 1,2 (not 100% sure on that rule) I never really took a lot of notice of

Just wondering if when you guys decide to use RD1 do you play this rule with the 1 and 1,2 pattern ?

I know I had this discussion with CT70 and he said he uses RD1 on roulette as per the rule book and does well.

My thoughts are when you are playing repeats after repeats and then you get a 1 and a 1,2 it may be time to look for a complete change of bias rather than try to play out RD1?

 

Question for Oz: Did you see James Packer's (Crown Casino's) version of no commission baccarat ??

It is a true no commission with no banker 6 rule

BUT

Ties win all Banker / Player bets !!

Effectively making it a 10% house edge if I'm not wrong !!

I cant believe the idiots that still pack out the tables and play this game

Of course I'm talking main casino floor which you may not see too much of.

 

 

Hi Brad...You are on the money. I haven't come across this version of "no commission" Baccarat. There is no way that the higher stakes players would tolerate such a blatant rip off. 

So saying...at first glance, I'm thinking that the best strategy to use would be to simply bet one tenth of a unit on tie every hand as an insurance bet. Tie pays 8 - 1 ...as I recall the true odds are actually around 9.5 - 1.

I generally play around 45+ hands per game . Ties should average out at about 5 per game for me. I lose 5 full units betting B/P...and gain 5 x 8 = 40 = 4 full units. I'm down a single unit. I can wear that. Not much different to normal commission and probably slightly better than "no commission B6 Tables"...Swings and roundabouts mate...swings and roundabouts.      

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Just one little thing that is worth considering (especially early in the shoe) ...If I haven't seen a prior matching event (History)...I will not bet on that event occurring. eg: If 1's and 2's are running, I will not bet on any 2iar going to 3iar without seeing at least one prior 3+iar. The same applies to 3's...If I haven't seen a prior 4+iar, no way am I betting that a 3iar will go to 4iar (with the possible exception of a good solid SS) If 3's are running without history saying different (3's MC) ...I will stick with them until I have seen up to five 3iar's and then MDB+ is telling me that it's time to "wait it out". I'll be wary of the 5th 3iar staying 3 but in all likelihood in a shoe that has produced four confirmed 3iar's, I am well ahead, I'll still make the 3's stay 3 bet. The next 3iar and any following 3's (without a 4+) is definitely a "WAIT" in capital letters bet. The same rule for me also applies to 4's...If the first 4iar stays 4...I will bet on any further 4iar's staying 4 until I see a run of 5+iar. Again though,"SS overrules all". If I am in a solid SS situation, I will most likely make the 5 bet and will also take more than a second look at doing the same if in a really good repeat section of the shoe (more likely though with repeats to wait out the fifth bet)  

"LET HISTORY BE YOUR GUIDE"

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Also...if SS and S40 are saying to bet the same side and you are ahead in the shoe, consider a 2 unit bet even if flatbetting. If using the Loop ...make it your 2 unit bet in the loop.

Only do this the first time that both SS and S40 coincide and then have a good look at recent history because most often, this is a sign that SS is coming to an end and look at either waiting out the next bet or switching immediately to S40. As always...this depends on your position in the shoe.

 

This message will self destruct in 10 secs... 5 4 3 2 1 BOOM!...I can't help myself...Old people gotta get their jollies somehow. 

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Recently, with all the wealth of such valued wisdom, intelligence, and insights being shared here...The title of an old Beatles album popped into my head......"The Magical Mystery Tour".  

The magic I am referring to is what so many of you guys create, and communicate.  The magic happens as it is said "when you are working at it".  The only real "mystery" to me is how such creative minds actually work.  I have my "ah hah" moments.  I just can never put a finger on where they come from at that moment.  It just happens.  

To be able to do, (hope you don't mind me using you as an example Oz) what he does in discovering, learning, understanding, using and then communicating what he does......to me is just pure artistry.  I don't believe I am overstating that when I describe it that way.  And I am sure as hell, am not brown nosing or trying to score brownie points with anyone.  This ain't no high school popularity contest, and we dam sure aren't trying to sell anything.   

There really is artistic aspects in doing what we do.  It really is creativity, brilliance, intelligence, wisdom, insights, and skills all rolled into one.  The inspiration that comes out of it is off the charts to those of us who truly get it, understand and appreciate it.  

Reading and re-reading this morning from the last several days, the artistry that has been shared here....I thought it was the dumbest thing I ever thought of which was......you will never find what you aren't looking for.

Then I realized.....it is true....what you are looking for in the what and how to win in baccarat.....it is here.....on this site.....in these forums.....and more importantly it is in the people that are here and share what they do.  

It is magic, and filled with mysteries.....until you find what you are searching for, if you look and listen.

Bottom line?   hard work, honesty, caring about yourself, and caring enough about others to share with them.

So before this message self destructs.....The question of......"Should you choose to accept this mission.......... As always, should you or any of your friends get lazy, become dishonest and act like you don't give a shit about anyone but yourself, or even end up hating yourself, the entire membership here will disavow any knowledge of your actions.

Yeah Oz.....me too.    

 

 

  

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Hi Oz thanks for your thoughts on no commission

I just choose not to play those tables even though you can turn the cards over and they give you comfy seats!

Can play regular banker 6 rule tables where you don't have to insure against ties

 

Also the double zeros side by side on the $2.50 and $5 European layout roulette wheels is the same - 5.4% edge compared to 2.7% single zero

Why play it when you can play rapid roulette with a single zero and low mins?

 

What about blackjack plus where a dealer 22 is a push on all bers!!

 

Yet the tables are still packed?? 

Just funding James Packers and Mariah Carey's retirement fund!

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Yes but he has a pretty hot girl now even if she is getting on a bit (Mariah Carey)

Blackjack plus rules dealer 22 is a push BUT you get some bonus for a 5 card 21 or something like that

What they give you they have already taken away more

All low stakes tables like this

As I said the bacc no commission is like that

They are touch tables where players turn cards over and you get comfy lounge seats with the waitresses coming around regularly (nothing free though)

They give you a bonus payout for a 3 card natural but all player / banker bets lose on ties

Alternatively you can play banker 6 tables where its non touch and you get stools to sit on if you can get a seat.

Cards are the same for both - preshuffled and then put though shufflers

All blackjack tables use CSM's (Continuous Shuffle Machines - 1 to 6 brand) which keeps them clumped and they keep the tables full which makes it even harder to win I believe.

Roulette is 2 zeros on all $2.50 and $5 tables

Dress code now doesn't exist - there's guys in there that look like they crawled off a park bench

One thing I will say though he has pumped a heap of money into the hotel and restuarants which is a plus to the whole thing.

And you can still find good games you just have to know what you are looking for and not play the crap

 

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I hear ya and still...... I hope Oz gets ahold of the guy....when he isn't taking his meds........lol   I'll put my wager on Oz to win that one.  I am just kidding.....but it is fun to think about....lol

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Just a further thought on negative progressions before I sign off on the subject.

I checked out close to 100 of my past shoes with probably the safest (if there is such a thing) of the various negative progressions U1D2 (I discounted all progressions starting at 3 or higher for reasons that I posted earlier) I can do this shit because I'm an old fart with stuffed sleep patterns and TV sucks at 3.00 in the morning...At my age...I'm really not that interested in having "abs of steel"...LOL (also...I like to explore every angle)

I took the same "safety first" type of play game plan that I use and waited until I was up +5  in the shoe simply flatbetting and then switched to U1D2 with a STOP/LOSS of -3.

The upshot was that I won every shoe but had(for me anyway ) a few scary situations. 

So...why don't I play U1D2? ...when I've just proven that it would be a winner for me? 

The answer is really another question..."Would I make exactly the same decisions as I did Flatbetting"?

The answer is "YES"...and "NO"...most likely "YES" if I was farting about with $100 or less size units and categorically "NO" playing with substantial units.  Therein lies another major problem with NPs...Human nature being what human nature is...I couldn't help but let the NP affect my judgement and get too safety conscious when the 4 5 or 6 unit bets came into play.

READ MY LIPS..."You will not make the same decisions with a NP that you do Flatbetting"...unless of course, you have balls of steel.

BTW: This is pretty much the same reason that new members/players can win on paper and then go on to lose when they hit the casino

. Anyway...just thought I'd share my viewpoint.

 

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I just gotta give a big shout out to everyone that is participating and sharing recently.  You guys are the best and everyone has really helped to raise my confidence level.  Don't worry that it goes to the extreme of being cocky, as the more I learn and understand, the realization of how little I do know is always present.  Simply I always try to stay present in gratitude and humility.  So thank you everyone, for your time, hard work, insights and sharing of your skills here.  

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Hi everyone, great discussion and words of wisdom being shared on this thread, love it!

"How the Cards Fall" will of course make a difference to how much you Win, but also on how much you Lose.

Kudos to you Oz for emphasizing time and time again that it is the "Money Management" side of the game (and the discipline to follow it) that really matters in the long run.

The subject of what "Stop Loss" and "Stop Wins"; ie. playing until a specific Loss or Win Target amount is reached in a shoe, is very important and perhaps should become the beginning of a new "Thread" on it own.

Bankroll Size & "Draw Down" is another suject that particulary interests me. Your long term "survival" in this game is determined not by how many "ups" you have, but how you are able to handle the "downs". You must have a large enough Bankroll to be able to "live through" the enevitable "Draw Downs" that WILL come your way.

Like way2fast said in this thread, he played MDB+ for 1 & 1/2 years and "achieved his goal", but he also says that he "changed" from initially playing the 124 Neg.Prog. to not using it any longer (but he didn't say what he "changed to"..?). The reason for that "change" I suspect is called "Draw Down" AND the ability to recover from it. 

So, having said that, could we please have some more discussion, words of wisdom and advise please from say way2fast or Oz. (and any other "long term" survivors...LOL) on what Bankroll Sizing (in "Units") they actually use (relative to the units they play) and the "real life" "Draw Downs" that they have actually experienced (or have made "plans" to experience)? 

   

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Mine is fairly simple.  Buy in for 5 units a shoe, win goal +5 and stop loss -5.  Within those parameters, depending on how I am doing in a shoe, it may go beyond +5, and sometimes I settle for +1, +2, +3 etc.  Never do I ever go beyond -5 stop loss.  But Oz has me thinking about that stop loss, if you read what he shared about that.  

Playing online over the weekend I found myself a couple of times saying to myself......"talk to me Oz".....in a couple of shoe situations.

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I buy in for $3000, which is 30 units @ $100, this was from a $300 buy in on 02 July

I already have the $3000 in chips from the last visit so I usually change $2000 into $100 (black) chips and $25 (green) chips

I start playing green, even though my unit size is $100, and I ONLY move up to $100 units when I am ahead in the shoe

The minimum bet here is $50, and in my other posts you will see me refer to $25 units.

This is because I bet $50 (2 units) and sometimes $75 (3 units) before I move up through the levels into $100 IF I AM AHEAD

Call me conservative, but that the way I play

I don't have a stop loss either, I believe Oz is dead right about that

If your play and MM is right, no need for a stop loss, nor a win target for that matter. All shoes are different.

 

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Hey Guys,

It’s CT here.

I recommend 100 units of whatever your unit size is. I usually like to see some history in the shoe before I table bet. Ideally I want to see all SAP counts populated before I make my first bet, although it’s not mandatory.

Once I start to bet, I’ll start with half units until my score gets to 1. Then I will flat bet until I get to 2. At 2 units I will start my 1-2 loop, with a 1 unit bet. (More conservative than the 1-2 loop is the 2-3 loop (as Pando and Oz mentioned). If my score starts to go negative I will revert back to flat betting and even half units again if necessary. However, if I am finding myself going back to half units after I’ve already started my loop, then I will re-evaluate staying in the shoe.

Always wait 1 hand after 2 consecutive losses no matter what. It will keep you safer.

You must always be watching your score. When you are at -1, play carefully. At -3 or -4 you are already in trouble and should be really choosing your bets carefully. At that point your first priority is just getting even, don’t even think about trying to make money until you are back to zero. Don’t underestimate how much trouble you can get into. In baccarat things go from not so bad to ugly very quickly. Just because you have 100 units at your disposal, don’t go betting 2 or 3 units to get even quickly because that will put you in a bigger hole to dig yourself out of.

By the way, the 100 unit bank roll is more for peace of mind than anything else. If you get to minus 20 units in a day, you should quit and go home.

Here is some advice for the beginners: If you just lost 6 ($20) units in 3 different shoes, you are now down $360 (18 units). Call it a day and go home. Come back the next day when your mind is fresh. If you are a beginner and you just lost 3 shoes, I assure you, you are not going to be able to think straight to win it back. The urge to make bigger bets is overwhelming especially if you have the money at your disposal. Go home. Come back to the casino the next day. Break down your previous day’s loss into 2 or 3 shoes/seessions. Try to win 6 or 7 units per shoe and quit the shoe. Do this this 3 times to get your money back. Don’t try to make 18 units in one shoe, if you are a beginner, it ain’t gonna happen.

Stop loss: I don’t have a stop loss either but that doesn’t mean I am going to let my score go to -20…..lol  For beginners I recommend a 6 unit stop loss.

You should always try to pick the shoe with the strongest bias to make it easy on yourself. Moreover, if you are struggling in a shoe and you’re at hand 40 and you are only up 2 units, look to take your 2 units and quit the shoe. A win is a win. Go play another shoe. Sometimes we are so absorbed in the moment that we forget that we could just as well be playing another shoe that’s easier.

For all the beginners: Don’t give up because you keep losing at the casino. Instead try to play more shoes at home and learn to win on your kitchen table and it will be easier to win at the casino. My idea of playing voice recorded shoes is a free option for you. Use it. I am happy to email my recorded shoes to you. Don’t play those online computer generated hands, they are more suited to roulette not baccarat. Preshuffled cards are different. They are designed a certain way and you need to learn how to beat them.

Eventually you will get to a point where there will be few shoes that you lose to and it won’t matter anyway because you will recognize them when they appear and you will get out early. Moreover, your winning shoes will far outnumber your losing shoes. Your bankroll will be growing daily. Once you start winning, you will feel really good and confident (but don’t get cocky…lol). Little by little you will start increasing your unit size. Next thing you know you will be playing $100 units with confidence. This is not a fantasy guys. YOU can do this.

Once you’re at that level you will need to learn how to fly under the radar…..but that’s another day’s lesson…..lol.

By the way, if your casino offers you a casino player ID card, I would not get one. If you already have one, don’t use it.

In my local casinos most people have casino player cards with a bar code on the back. Every hour a casino hosts comes around and scans everyones card at the table. Every time your card gets scanned, you receive a 10 cent credit (big deal!) that you can use to purchase food, beverage and gifts. As a professional player you do not need the casino to know that you are playing everyday for several hours. The scan info winds up on some executives desk and they check to see who are the everyday players and they get curious. I know the dealers and managers recognize you but it’s not in your best interest for them to get to know you too well. Besides, as a pro you don’t need the 50 cents or so per day that they give you.

When anyone asks what you do for a living, make sure to tell them that you have a day job. The more important the day job, the less they suspect you’re a pro. Even though it's tempting, don’t advertise or brag to anyone that you make your living at baccarat.

CT70

 

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Bankroll is a critical component of your success.  One of the advantages the casino has is an unlimited bankroll.  To be a consistent and long term winner, you must neutralize the casino's bankroll advantage.  How do you do that?  You can't really also have an "unlimited" bankroll.  But with a large enough bankroll you can feel like you do.  Casino gaming has a lot of similarities to short term trading (stocks, commodities, currencies, future contracts, etc.).  With casino gaming you are talking risk of loss with each bet, and the level of risk taken should be based on your capital (bankroll).  Almost every gambler you see at the table is betting too high for the amount of capital they have.  These "gamblers" cannot withstand drawdowns, and then they are too "scared" to make the larger bets when called for.  Do not approach baccarat like a "gambler".  Better to approach the game as a pro, as a risk manager investing a portion of your capital in an outcome.  In my opinion, your LARGEST bet should never be more than 2% of your capital.  1% would be even better, but I recognize most will find the 2% test conservative and safe.  So to play $100 units with say a high bet of 4 units would require at least $20,000 in capital.  Capital means it is at risk and could (theoretically) be lost.  The idea is to have enough capital to make it through rough patches and draw downs, and to eliminate any fear so you can play your method and make the bets in the casino that you have worked out at home, knowing that you have sufficient capital.

I didn't stop using a 1,2,4 progression with MDB due to drawdowns.  I stopped because I didn't want to make the size bets in $$ that was called for with a 4 unit bet.  At that time, I reduced my unit size and started using either a 1,2,2 or 1,2 loop progression.  Reducing the unit size made it take longer to reach my goal, but I was so far ahead at that time that I didn't really care about reaching that final goal, or how long it took to get there.  Gamblers think they are playing with the "house money" when they are way ahead.  And how does that generally work out for them?  Once I am ahead, it has become part of MY capital to be protected and invested in accordance with my risk parameters.

Regarding stop losses -- I don't have a hard shoe stop.  I am playing mostly short term sequences, and for each of those I will have a stop loss.  Most typically at -1, sometimes -2.  If it isn't working, stop and wait for another opportunity.  I will also drop certain signals/triggers if they are not working in the shoe --- there are always plenty of ways to win in a shoe and our job is to find the ones that work in each and every shoe we play.  Although I do not have a shoe stop, I will say it is VERY rare these days that a loosing shoe would be greater than -5.  Honestly, if its shit right from the start, I will either sit for an extended period and wait, or will more likely just leave and look for another opportunity -- there are no shortages of opportunities with baccarat.  I like CT's recommendation that beginners play with a set stop loss.  The most important thing you can do to learn how to win is to learn how to minimize losses.

 

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Great stuff and thanks to everyone that is sharing and giving their wealth of knowledge, experience, insights and wisdom.

I especially like and agree with way2fast's viewpoint of "whose money is it".   Once I win,  it is my money.  It doesn't belong to the "house" anymore.  Their money is theirs, and mine belongs to me.  What they do with their money is their business and what I do with mine is not only my business, it is my responsibility to handle it in the most productive manner possible.   

So when someone says they are playing with house money, not to be a smartass, I will always ask.....oh really did they give you that money to play with?  The usual response is, "no I won it".  So I just simply say that is not the house's money, it is your money and now you not only own it, you are responsible for it.   Unless of course, you are playing for entertainment purposes, and I can't imagine there is anyone as a member here that does that for entertainment purposes.  

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Thank you to all who have shared their thoughts (and to Brad of course who started this thread) about “Progressions”, “Money Management” and “Bank Size” relative to the “Unit Size” (ie.RISK) they are willing to “Put Out There” on the Tables when they Bet on: “How the Cards Fall”.

I hope that this has got ALL of us thinking more about the “Downside” risks, MORE than about the “Upside” gains. Professional Players & Investors in the “Money Markets” all know what way2fast is talking about.  

Kudos to way2fast for his great relevant reply. It shows the mark of a “Pro.” when you get a quality reply like that where he goes into details about “Managing Risk” via “Max. Units” permitted to be bet vs. “Capital at Hand”. Oz…come on…”Please Don`t be Shy” (mate)….let’s hear some more good “.James.&.Kerry.Packer.”..stories..and then after that, some “Good.Oil” from you on the importance of this “Money. Management” stuff..? (please)

Of course thanks to ALL who reply about here about their bet selection methods, money management and experiences.

This is “great stuff” people, keep the discussion going.

There is NO substitute for experience period! (right Oz.?)

The more “correct” way of doing things that you are able to get exposure to, the more likely you will learn from those experiences.

Oh..and don`t forget to have just a little bit of fun along the way, BUT not at the expense of your Bankroll !

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My Bankroll Management came straight out of the "Norm Allen" playbook. Pretty simple really...It's the 10% Staking System.Take 10% of your current Bankroll and divide by your STOP/LOSS (in my case -3) which gives you your unit size. eg:10% of $3,000BR = $300 divided by S/L -3 =$100 units 

At first glance, it appears to require 10 losing shoes in a row to lose your entire B/R (unlikely...but not impossible)...but not so...it's much safer, because you stick solidly to the 10% rule and your unit size moves up or down with the increasing or decreasing size of your Bankroll. You really would have do something bordering on "braindead" to lose your entire  BR.

Playing this  way doubles your Bankroll every 30 units. 

Easy if you've got balls of steel...but as you may have gathered, I'm not in the same class as Norm and Way2Fast when it comes to testicular lowering so I cheated a little when I started out. I was using a S/L of -4 and instead of 10% of my BR...I risked 5%. eg: 5% of $8000 BR = $400 divided by S/L -4 = $100 unit size. It took me a bit longer, but I am now at the point where I don't need to concern myself with BR.

That's it in a nutshell...not that hard...eh? 

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
wolfat

Hi,

nott too much to add at this thread...

Just wanna say that your stop-loss must be proportional to your avg. winning shoe.

Flat betting will prevent you from losing, if you are ready to lose an amoumt close to your avg winning, this doesn hurt you too much.

Personally I make my probe bet at 1/2 u, tasting water and then switching to standard unit of 1 when getting results.

 

For me -4/-5 is the max loss I can allow to a shoe but dont forget to bet when you have a strong reason for doing it.

A

bacclover

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