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Hey Guys, It’s CT here. I recommend 100 units of whatever your unit size is. I usually like to see some history in the shoe before I table bet. Ideally I want to see all SAP counts popul

Oz that was a great post. We always love to hear from you. As you said, "There is no substitute for learning to read the shoe”. This could NOT be more true and READING today’s “PRESHUFFLED shoe”

Just thought I'd clarify my thoughts on FLATBETTING v LOOP v NEGATIVE PROGRESSIONS Note:These are just my thoughts and are always up for debate.  It might surprise you to know that for me, t

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William Looi
8 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

Just thought I'd clarify my thoughts on FLATBETTING v LOOP v NEGATIVE PROGRESSIONS

Note:These are just my thoughts and are always up for debate. 

It might surprise you to know that for me, the 1 2 LOOP is not the 'be all and end all". The reason being that my PA (Player Advantage) varies only 0.1% between Flatbetting and the LOOP. How can that be when on average I win just under 6 extra units/shoe with the Loop? Simple answer is that I'm risking more units to win. The Loop is ideal for occasional players who need to take advantage of their infrequent visits to the casino to the fullest, but for regular players on top of their game...flatbetting will produce the same results with less angst if you happen to be betting serious units. Norm was different...He had a gift...seemed to know when and where to place his 2 unit bets on a more regular basis, but for this mere mortal, I can't achieve his high hit rate.    

You guys pretty much know how I feel about "negative progressions" already, but I'll try and explain my reasoning.

One major issue I have with negative progressions is that I seriously doubt whether there are more than a handful of people (not including the super wealthy)prepared to play NP's with large units.(I'm yet to meet one)  It's ok when you are fart arsing around with $100 or less size units, but ask yourself if your balls are ever likely to drop to the point that, with for instance, $5K units, you would  be prepared to risk a $15K third bet when (in the case of a basic 1 2 3 progression) you are  already down $15K. 

As for so called "safer" progressions with higher startups... 2 3 4 and the much vaunted 3 4 5 progression and higher...are you ever, ever going to start a progression with $15K...2nd bet $20K and third bet of $25K for a potential loss of $60K?...It's not going to ever happen

To call it a 3 4 5 progression is a misnomer anyway. It is in effect a 1 unit... 1 and a third units and 1and 2 thirds units progression with a potential loss of 4 units. If you win the 3rd bet of your progression...you are still down two thirds of a unit.(and if your third winning bet happens to be a B6...you do the math) What sort of a negative progression is that where your third bet is still a losing bet?  It only works well if you are smashing out the first bet wins. In which case, you might as well be just flatbetting....almost the same result with less risk. Think about it...with the 3 4 5 progression...the sum total of your so called winning units in reality has to be divided by 3. "HEY...look at me...I just won 30 units" No you didn't...you just won 10 units...Big deal...I average  more than that for every shoe simply flatbetting. BTW: The higher your start up in your progression ie: 4 5 6...5 6 7...etc...the closer you are to simply flatbetting..."HELLO!"...this is why they are "safe" progressions. In Oz we would call them "Bullshit Progression...the negative progression you make when you're not actually making a negative progression" 

U1 D2 is a relatively safe progression (as NP's go), but in my experience, my PA is less than simply Flatbetting. Also...any progression with an M2 (mandatory 2) has to have total units divided by 2 to get a true indication of actual units won per risk taken. There is very little actual PA (Player Advantage) difference between U1D2 and U1D2M2. It may give you a higher all up total of units won at the end of the shoe, but again...you have risked more units. With Mandatory 2 in play you are virtually playing a 1 1.5  2.0 2.5 etc with a Down 1...you increase your bet by half a unit when you lose and lower your bet by 1 unit when you win. Do you get it? Also...in theory, if you are playing M2, you should also be doubling your S/L. Again...this may be worthwhile for occasional players who need to maximise units won per shoe but for regular players, there is not much point. You achieve the same result by simply doubling your starting unit size.

With both Flatbetting and the 1 2 loop and the 2 3 Loop (Oops...I forgot to mention that one...LOL), my PA is such that I know that for  every 4 units I bet, I will be making 1 unit clear profit. That beats the hell out of Bank Interest.

BTW: The 2 3 Loop is simply my own  variation on the 1 2 Loop which may be more comfortable for those just starting to get the idea of the Loop or those betting larger units. In reality, it is a 1 1.5 unit Loop with the advantage of being able to make my probe bets with half a unit. But you know something?...In truth...it doesn't matter  much whether I Flatbet...1 2 Loop or 2 3 Loop... there is sweet stuff all difference in my PA. It's all about bet placement. I use all three options depending on whether or not I'm menstruating...(I am kidding...right?) 

I haven't mentioned the scariest NP of them all...U1D1. For me, this progression is all risk for not enough reward. Sure it works (till your progression reaches the stratosphere) but if you happen to strike a much needed win with a B6 on a "no commission" table, you are not going to be a "happy chappie". This is the only  progression that actually rewards bad play. If your bet selection is good, then your PA shouldn't be all that different to the Loop or simply flatbetting but you are running a hell of a lot more risk for the same result. If your bet selection is piss weak, then U1D1 can come into it's own...(It actually rewards failure) unless of course it crashes and burns. If you want to use U1D1 on a regular basis...check with your heart specialist first.  

As for U1D1M2...after you see your heart specialist..."get yourself a  brain surgeon son...better get a real good one" (who specialises in transplants)

In short...Read my lips."There is no substitute for learning to read the shoe and NP's will only give you false confidence" 

Why does the Loop perform so well with less risk than NPs?Buggered if I know, but I suspect that it is because it is in a way a limited positive progression. You never make a 2 unit bet that takes you below 0, so in effect, you are using the casino's money, whereas, with a NP, you are by it's very nature coming from behind and using risking your own money to increase your unit size. 

Remember...there is enough info on BTC to turn anyone into a winner if you just put in the hard yards...S40...OTB4L...TBL...SS...Repeats...RD1...MC and LC events...they all work to varying degrees...Just listen to the words of one of  the best Baccarat players in the history of the game (Norm Allen) RIP...Learn to "Follow the shoe"

 

OK...that's just my opinion for what it's worth and you are entitled to disagree, but for those strong advocates of aggressive Negative Progressions...I'll be sure to wave to you on your skateboard as I drive past in my Merc...just saying...LOL

Bye for now...I reckon I'll be copping a few "negatives" of my own...(comments I mean...not progressions) LOL

 

OH yeah...I almost forgot...and this is for regular players only. Once you are Flatbetting or "Looping" and doing well...you can throw out your STOP/LOSS. There is no need for a SL. It matters sweet stuff all what your situation is at the end of a shoe...You need to look at the big picture and where you are after several day's (or longer) play. 

Also...and read my lips "The more shoes you play, the more likely you are to win". On average, by simply Flatbetting or Looping (I like that term...might patent it...LOL), you will hit one in every 5 or 6 shoes that almost plays itself for a win between 15 and 20 units, and one in every 10 or so shoes that does play itself (sorta) for a win of 25+ units. The trick is to not get discouraged with shoes where you aren't winning big units or just breaking even... "Shit Happens" but relax in the knowledge that the the really good shoes will crop up and you need to be playing to take advantage of them "Nobody ever won big by sitting at the bar"..hmm...I like that...might patent that saying too...LOL

Another thing...The longer the shoe, the more likely you are to win. That might not make sense, but it's a fact. Sooner or later in a long shoe, a more than half decent Bias crops up. The trick is to hang in there and be patient. I couldn't count the number of shoes that I've struggled most of the way only to hit the Bias in the last 10 to 15 hands and win big time. That's the problem with most online pay. Most Online Casinos keep their shoes short by various means (burning a card every deal is a goodie) I'm not into conspiracy theories, but I figure that they know that the longer the shoe continues, the more likely you are to be able to recover from a bad start or they can stop you in a strong winning streak.

OK...Let the games begin...LOL

I agree with you

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Great post Oz.   Absolutely love, appreciate and agree with  "In short...Read my lips."There is no substitute for learning to read the shoe and NP's will only give you false confidence" 

In my humble viewpoint, as you shared "there is not substitute for learning to read the shoe", that is the heart, soul, and solid foundation for learning how to win.  That viewpoint is further emphasized by Norm, in "follow the shoe".   Priceless !!! 

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I have been playing this game for a while now and I still have no idea , what "reading the shoe"

or  "follow the shoe" really mean.

Can someone point me to an explanation of these terms  on this site. ?

 

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trillion

Oz, I agree with a lot of your advice and I just wish I could play half as well as you.

You have developed a style of playing and consistently winning with a simple approach of flat betting or using a 1-2 loop, I am just amazed at how you are able bet on the  correct side of the shoe, from shoe to shoe.

PLEASE, PLEASE continue to teach all of us at BTC, you have a very big following and a lot of eager players that would like to learn more about how you play and advice that can provide to help everyone become a winning player.    

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Excellent question Wendel.  Just by asking that question in wanting to know, you are advancing forward and I hope you will take the time to learn, and understand it.   Please don't let it overwhelm you in learning how to, as there are quite a few viewpoints on how to do so.  What works for one person, doesn't necessarily work for someone else.  It takes time, work, and experience to learn how to.  

Some general guidelines for observation.  As you are observing the shoe.....ask yourself what type of shoe is it?  Basics of is it choppy, or is it a streaky shoe?  Are there more 1's than 2's?   Are there more 3's and 4's+ than there are 1's and 2's?  What is the strong side.......what is the weak side?  

Is the shoe constantly changing from one aspect to a different aspect?  Where in the shoe is there stability and consistency?  

As Oz has pointed out to all of us, in learning from Norm, if you don't see something clearly......DON"T BET IT.   That is a great place to start in learning how to read and see a shoe clearly.   

One thing you will need in learning this.......is patience.  So relax, and breathe.....one step at a time and it will amaze you what you will learn.  Be determined also to commit to learning how.  It won't happen overnight.  

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Oz, thank you for taking the time to express your opinion and expertise. You have given me many concepts to ponder.

You have given me more food for thought and good advice than any other individual on this forum (in terms of my personal struggles with the game), in the 3 months I have been a member of this forum. I joined the forum to take risk out of my play (used to use NP's) by making bet selection my focus.  I have learned to understand and recognize the different biases, and my challenge is to learn to "read and adapt" to what the shoe is producing.  Your stories and explanations of flatbetting have given me a confidence that I am able to survive a down streak without losing many units.

I feel like I put in a great deal of time in attempting to improve my play, but as you said in your post I need to belly up to the bar and play more shoes.  I need to run the marathon and not the sprints.  I used to think that sprinting to a win was the way to go (using NPs and even using my old friend marty) so as not to hit a bad streak and bust.

Thank you again for your posts!

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Brilliant post OZ, thanks a million, we love having you here

For my own part I start flat betting in every shoe, and then advance to play a 2/3 loop when I am ahead

 

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Oz that was a great post. We always love to hear from you.

As you said, "There is no substitute for learning to read the shoe”. This could NOT be more true and READING today’s “PRESHUFFLED shoe” is the key to winning at baccarat.

Well you say but HOW can I learn to read the shoe? Reading the shoe comes with time. This takes the most time, but is not the hardest thing to learn about the game. You will find discipline will be the hardest part of this game, when you have to refrain from throwing your entire bankroll at the next hand because you just lost 4 bets in a row on hands where you were (or thought) you were sure of their outcomes…lol.

I think reading the shoe/cards can be taught to an extent and a student can be taught what to look for in a shoe, and when to expect a change(s), but sooner or later you will have to think like a SHOE DESIGNER. With enough practice you will be able to see thru their card arrangements. You will eventually find yourself betting on the opposite side of everyone else at the table, even when the outcome seems so obvious and opposite of where everyone else is betting.

There are 2 ways of putting in the time to learn to read the shoe.

The first way, is to spend a lot of time playing in a casino. But, even as a bright student, knowing ALL the systems, and progressions etc., I can tell you that you will probably lose 3 out of 4 sessions. 

The second and more practical way is to get your hands on some preshuffled shoes in abbreviated form (stats for profits is a great source) or maybe from other players, and play and replay them till your head spins. Study the flow of preshuffled cards. Study your shoes and notice how the outcomes changed and were different than what you thought was so obvious. The best players, still do this on a daily basis. Even when you are not at the casino you should be playing some shoes on your kitchen table or you will get rusty. Play and replay the same shoe but on a different day to see if your score improves. Then go back and check what you did differently. What I personally do is, I use my phones’ voice recorder to input all the hands of a shoe one by one, I recite into the recorder “i.e. “Hand 1, Banker, Hand 2 Player, Hand 3 Player…”.etc. (this takes only 3 minutes for 1 shoe) Leaving a one second pause between each hand. Then I play the shoe recording back one hand at a time while pausing to write the results down after playing each hand. When playing at the casino I also walk around and quickly jot down (in abbreviated form) all the shoes that are at or near hand 70 hands so I have something to take home with me (in addition to their money…lol). When I leave the casino I usually have about 6 or 7 shoe info with me. Great for home practice. This is what it’s all about. Practice practice and more practice. You will eventually get so good and play so fast, that you will be frustrated by how long it takes other players to make their bets. YES, this is true.  

As a new baccarat student you should try to learn ALL the systems that we use. A good player will use all or most of them in the same shoe at one time or other. Oz already mentioned them all but here they are again. S40...OTB4L...TBL...SS...Repeats...RD1...MC and LC events (SAP). If you know these like the back of your hand you are in “fair” NOT great shape. There’s more to learn.

The goal of the casino is to arrange the cards in such an order to make you bet a certain way and to make you LOSE. That is their job and they do it very well. They will let you win a certain number of hands, occasionally they will even let you win a lot. This is the time to be most careful for what’s around the corner. If the side to bet on just seems TOO obvious, BEWARE! It’s not going to be a walk in the park. What I see most in the cards is the casino arranges the cards to form patterns. Once they have the entire table thinking a certain way and everyone at the table is betting on the same side, and at this point the players are playing so confidently that they all have their highest bets out, don’t they? Well this is exactly when the rug gets pulled out from under you and something completely different happens and everyone loses (except YOU) because you saw it coming. An example of this would be PB PB PP B PP B PPPPPPPPPPP B. Which side is the entire table going to be betting on the next hand? Player right? Yes, but player would be incorrect...the correct answer is either wait a hand (don't bet) or bet on the Banker. Why? Because the casino just set you up to make you think that the Player just lost a hand but is coming right back. The skeptics all have their biggest bets out. This is the perfect time for a banker because everyone will lose WITH their biggest bets out. As someone says "see that"?  

By the way, always be cautious when the entire table is betting on the same side as YOU. When this happens, I usually re-evaluate the side that I am betting on. Sometimes I will leave my bet out, but a lot of times I will just pull my bet back and WAIT. (OH and WAITING is a great option, use it as much as you can).

No one will tell you this but all the great baccarat players were DISASTERS before they became MASTERS. Including Norm. R.I.P. They all eventually paid their dues in time and money spent in a casino.

But today is different. We are all in a better position where all the information is here on this forum. The Masters are on this forum. There’s videos, there’s booklets. There’s a whole bunch of aids to learn faster. I am not saying you don’t have to go to the casino to be a bac expert but there is a lot you can do before you go to the casino. You need to eat breath and sleep everything bac. If you want to be able to walk into any casino and take their money at will, THAT is what it is going to take.

There is not a more perfect hobby (notice I didn’t say job) in the world. Think about it. Bac can be your own recession proof business. You like to work odd hours. Great! The casino is open 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Go there anytime you like. There is a seat waiting. Don’t want a boss to tell you what to do? Great. YOU are your own boss. You like cash? Good so do we! Want to take a family vacation anytime you damn please? Be my guest. How does all this sound? Does it sound like a fairy tale? Too good to be true? It does, doesn’t it? This is the life of a professional bac player. Even medical surgeons don’t have this lifestyle but you CAN. All it takes is a few dedicated months of learning the ins and outs of the game.

It’s not that hard.

CT70

Edited by ECD
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By the way, let's remember some things work in baccarat because the casinos cheat by pre-arranging the cards so we take counter measures against their cheating. So that being said, some concepts that work in bac may not work the same in roulette, as the outcomes are random.

CT70

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I agree wit that as I play roulette red / black more than bacc and you do not seem to get the same biases and playing around with cards

They are more free running and random and often easier to take advantage of

 

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1 hour ago, CT70 said:

There is not a more perfect hobby (notice I didn’t say job) in the world. Think about it. Bac can be your own recession proof business. You like to work odd hours. Great! The casino is open 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Go there anytime you like. There is a seat waiting. Don’t want a boss to tell you what to do? Great. YOU are your own boss. You like cash? Good so do we! Want to take a family vacation anytime you damn please? Be my guest. How does all this sound? Does it sound like a fairy tale? Too good to be true? It does, doesn’t it? This is the life of a professional bac player. Even medical surgeons don’t have this lifestyle but you CAN. All it takes is a few dedicated months of learning the ins and outs of the game.

It’s not that hard.

CT70

3

Great post CT and I can't argue much against anything you said except for your thoughts on the lifestyle of a Pro Baccarat player. I still find playing Baccarat as exciting as watching my neighbours grass grow...which is marginally more exciting than watching my own grass grow for the reason that I don't have to mow my neighbour's grass.

One thing that I will clarify  though...When I say "follow the shoe"...I'm talking about recent events and the only events that I note for the whole shoe are MC and LC events ie" 3's staying 3...4's staying 4...2's MC or LC and runs of +4.

S40...OTB4L...Repeats...TB4L...SS and RD1 are subject to recent shoe history.

Be wary of single runs that crop up out of nowhere...Hop on the run if that gets your rocks off, but at the completion of the run, look to the events prior to the run...More often than not the same bias continues.

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Reading and re-reading these recent posts.....it's like the best dinner you could ever have when you are starving and the hunger is the predominant driving force inside you.

This one...... "You need to eat breath and sleep everything bac"....is not an option.  No joke, I go to sleep at night with baccarat shoes on score sheets in my hand, and wake up in the morning with them still in my hand.  I've got bac shoes next to the toilet, on my desk, on my computer, and in my car.  I'm hungry and wake up starving every day and I will do what it takes, and then do even more.  I won't settle for just being average.  I can't do it on my own...and I don't expect anyone to do it for me.  I need you guys.....because I know you are the best of the very best there is. 

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A question for you guys about RD1

I studied this but I mostly use it for repeats following repeats (repeats only)

The rule: bet straight down after losing to a 1 or a 1,2 (not 100% sure on that rule) I never really took a lot of notice of

Just wondering if when you guys decide to use RD1 do you play this rule with the 1 and 1,2 pattern ?

I know I had this discussion with CT70 and he said he uses RD1 on roulette as per the rule book and does well.

My thoughts are when you are playing repeats after repeats and then you get a 1 and a 1,2 it may be time to look for a complete change of bias rather than try to play out RD1?

 

Question for Oz: Did you see James Packer's (Crown Casino's) version of no commission baccarat ??

It is a true no commission with no banker 6 rule

BUT

Ties win all Banker / Player bets !!

Effectively making it a 10% house edge if I'm not wrong !!

I cant believe the idiots that still pack out the tables and play this game

Of course I'm talking main casino floor which you may not see too much of.

 

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On August 4, 2016 at 3:44 AM, ozscouser1 said:

People...Which part of "Play every shoe like you are betting your house"...didn't you understand?

This shoe almost plays itself

I would not have touched this shoe until play 14 just like you. I want to see several completed events before making my first bet.

Your bets are placed exactly as I would have played right up until Play 23 which is still a SS bet but is also an Opposite bet so that becomes a definite 2 unit bet. 

Bet 24 is an obvious P bet because you have switched to betting opposites (S40)

Bet 25 is a correct losing bet on B

Bet 26 You should have risked another B bet as per normal S40... It lost, but shit happens and after 3iar it's time to "Wait it out"

The run ends after 4iar (I mostly don't bet on isolated runs unless the shoe has previous history saying it's a good bet)  

Bet 29 ...You need to think this through...Previous history before the 4iar was opposites (S40) which is your best guide. If I was well ahead in the shoe I would make the losing P bet, and then bet P again on hand 30...and continue betting S40 ...if not...I would wait until  hand 31 where it is an obvious continuation of S40 and stay with S40 all the way.

So you start off with both repeats and SS  telling you where to place your early bets

Then SS overules  repeats until you hit an obvious S40 indication to switch

Then a solitary run interrupts proceedings and you wait to see if S40 continues after the run...and then you continue with S40 all the way.

Pretty simple...eh?

Flatbetting you end up after 24 bets with +11 units or with the Loop ...most likely +18...Beats the hell out of Bank Interest.

Just be careful guys...Don't make it more difficult than it needs to be.

 

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Regarding RD1. First and foremost take a SAP count as soon as you sit down, let your SAP count tell you what's what. RD loves repeats. It also likes 1s and 2s, it just doesn't like them when they are together side by side. So if 1s and 2s are high, then don't play RD, except in a small repeat section of the shoe.

RD1 does not like sporadic 1s. It likes the 1s to be in duplicates like  a 4zz or 6zz. It hates single 1s (3zz). 1s mixed in with 2s is a DO NOT PLAY for RD1. RD1 works best in repeat sections within the shoe but not for the entire shoe. Don't stay with RD too long. The moment you see a confirmed 1,2, show up, terminate RD and use another system. 

Dont try to implement the 1,2 rule for RD, it's not effective and does more harm than good. If you start seeing just 1s and 2s, switch to opposites (Not OTB4L). 

Evaluate history of repeat sections of the shoe to determine whether to use RD, Repeats or TB4L. With all of these systems it is still best to wait 1 hand and just observe after 2 consecutive losses. 

CT70

 

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Hello Bacc-a-roos!

I just wanted to do a quick “Pop In” to say hello and to say that it’s good to hear some stimulating discussion going on here at BTC.

It’s been a long time coming and badly needed. It’s also funny how things sometimes come full circle and people start discussing baccarat and you find yourself saying “seems like I’ve heard that somewhere before”. There really is nothing new under the sun; just someone discovering for the first time what was there all along.

For those who don’t know me, I’m just an ‘ol fart, like OZ or Andrea, or CT who has been fooling around with baccarat for decades and have learned a few tricks of the trade. Yes, you can do well at baccarat if you want it bad enough. Trouble is sometimes by the time you know what you are doing you’re too old to do it (r we still talking bout baccarat?). 

Anyway, I just wanted to say hey, and that it’s good to see some of the Baccarat Bandits back in the swimming pool.

Take Care,

PJ

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Been some really good discussion and advice in this thread – for both novice players and experienced players who, if they are serious, are always looking to learn and develop their play.

On ‎8‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 9:24 PM, ozscouser1 said:

Just thought I'd clarify my thoughts on FLATBETTING v LOOP v NEGATIVE PROGRESSIONS

Oz, thanks for the great post regarding progressions.  As usual, you have articulated critically important concepts very directly and in a way that is easy for anyone here to follow and understand.   Negative progressions CAN be very dangerous, and especially new players should avoid them.  The main issue with NP for new players is that it makes you lazy – you just keep betting your “system” with your upward progression, expecting that the progression will bail you out.  Far better to pay attention to what the shoe is actually doing and plan your next bet accordingly (which is more likely to be a “no bet” after a loss than a higher bet looking for the same thing to happen).  If you are lazy, or if you want to just follow a mechanical system from shoe start to end, you will lose in the long run.  The casino is full of players like that, and they thrive because of those players.  

Although I just trashed NP’s, I would also suggest there is a place for a carefully thought out NP in certain circumstances.  For example, if I am playing a particularly strong bias in a shoe (say an S40 bias), I will often use a 1,2 progression.  With this method it allows for a win on 1s and 2s, which are the bread and butter of a solid S40 bias.  Also, a while ago I played MDB almost exclusively for about 1 ½ years.   For most of the time I used the 1,2,4 progression, because it was needed to achieve the desired result – that x will happen before y happens five times.  Using that progression ensured a 1 unit win for every time that hypothesis was correct.  If the progression was lowered or if used flat betting, then it would be possible to be “right”, but lose money, which is just a fucked up way to play.  I didn’t intend to play MDB exclusively, but after developing all the extra triggers I just started playing and for the longest time could literally just not lose.  So I continued playing and tracking the results of every MDB signal.  Before reaching my goal, I started to adjust the progression – precisely as OZ points out – NFW would I make a $20k bet after losing two bets totaling $15k – even when I KNOW that third bet of the progression wins 72.4% of the time. 

I do not recommend anyone play any method exclusively – I only did it for a while to prove something to myself and reach a particular goal.  Since reaching that goal I have gone back to playing short term sequences in the shoe, much like we were doing a few years ago with Norm at Aria and MGM, only now with better and more reliable triggers.  I’m also using all of the NOR concepts, plus SAP and MDB (still will play certain MDB triggers in certain shoe setups, but not as a progression).  For the most part I am flat betting or using an up as you win progression.  Wins come in bunches, and occur when we are in synch for a brief time with the shoe bias.  Playing an up as you win progression with large units, with built in capture points and a method to recover when it finally loses is, IMO, pretty close to Utopia.

On ‎8‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 9:24 PM, ozscouser1 said:

To call it a 3 4 5 progression is a misnomer anyway. It is in effect a 1 unit... 1 and a third units and 1and 2 thirds units progression with a potential loss of 4 units. If you win the 3rd bet of your progression...you are still down two thirds of a unit.(and if your third winning bet happens to be a B6...you do the math) What sort of a negative progression is that where your third bet is still a losing bet?  It only works well if you are smashing out the first bet wins. In which case, you might as well be just flatbetting....almost the same result with less risk. Think about it...with the 3 4 5 progression...the sum total of your so called winning units in reality has to be divided by 3. "HEY...look at me...I just won 30 units" No you didn't...you just won 10 units...Big deal...I average  more than that for every shoe simply flatbetting. BTW: The higher your start up in your progression ie: 4 5 6...5 6 7...etc...the closer you are to simply flatbetting..."HELLO!"...this is why they are "safe" progressions

I’m not capable of expressing this important concept as well as Oz did, so I won’t.  But if you don’t grasp it, re-read it and work it out.  It is incredibly simple, but some of the best baccarat “minds” don’t seem to get it.  Some are even saying the way to go is 5 6 7, or even 6 7 8, and they express it like it is some kind of revolutionary breakthrough – like this is the magical formula to increasing units won per shoe.   It’s like the pioneers of negative progression accidently discovered flat betting, but they don’t know what they “discovered.”

And I absolutely love this Oz-ism:

On ‎8‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 9:24 PM, ozscouser1 said:

Bullshit Progression...the negative progression you make when you're not actually making a negative progression

 

Edited by ECD
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Hello PJ, though I wasn't here when you were active, thank you for all that you have shared here.

Thank you also way2fast.  It really does so much good in helping those of us who still want to learn, and it is always genuinely appreciated.

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nikolasyue
6 hours ago, PapaJoe said:

 

Hello Bacc-a-roos!

I just wanted to do a quick “Pop In” to say hello and to say that it’s good to hear some stimulating discussion going on here at BTC.

It’s been a long time coming and badly needed. It’s also funny how things sometimes come full circle and people start discussing baccarat and you find yourself saying “seems like I’ve heard that somewhere before”. There really is nothing new under the sun; just someone discovering for the first time what was there all along.

For those who don’t know me, I’m just an ‘ol fart, like OZ or Andrea, or CT who has been fooling around with baccarat for decades and have learned a few tricks of the trade. Yes, you can do well at baccarat if you want it bad enough. Trouble is sometimes by the time you know what you are doing you’re too old to do it (r we still talking bout baccarat?). 

Anyway, I just wanted to say hey, and that it’s good to see some of the Baccarat Bandits back in the swimming pool.

Take Care,

PJ

 

Hey Mr. PapaJoe!

While the talk is FOLLOW THE SHOE whoever wants to learn more on that here's some reading from the first gen of BTC winners with that; from the O.G. himself and that’s original gangster, not grandpa okay ;) Ha

 

 

Edited by nikolasyue
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