HOW MANY OF YOU FLAT BET OF NEGATIVE PROGRESSION (LET'S BE HONEST) SURVEY NEEDED

[Nate W]

I've been guilty of not flat betting most of the time in the past and have lost most of my winnings because I chased losses with Martingale bets.  I tried flat betting only the last time I was in Vegas, and I walked away with a decent win.  I've only practiced flat betting with SBI this month and have stuck to it just to see what my Hit Rate actually is.  The data is sobering.  If I'm doing the math right, my Hit Rate is 53.26% so far.  Can someone please confirm looking at the attached?  @kachatz1, my understanding is that Hit Rate (HR) = Total Winning Bets (TWB) divided by Total Hands Bet (THB).  So HR = TWB / THB.  Correct?

Thanks!

Baccarat Practice.xlsx

[BronxAl]

7 hours ago, kachatz1 said:

I stand by FLAT BETTING as the gate to get you into the ‘secret garden ‘ of Baccarat 

I am always looking for the "Gate of secret gardens" playing Baccarat. Especially, smelling the Rosses as my hit rate improves. I gently tip toe through the garden when I first sit down at the table with flat bets, then all hell breaks loose when I am doing well hitting those sweet spots.

After warming up I usually play 3 to 4 hours at a table. There are players who would not even think of doing that, but I do not just love the game of Baccarat, I am in love with the game.

[kachatz1]

16 hours ago, Nate W said:

I've been guilty of not flat betting most of the time in the past and have lost most of my winnings because I chased losses with Martingale bets.  I tried flat betting only the last time I was in Vegas, and I walked away with a decent win.  I've only practiced flat betting with SBI this month and have stuck to it just to see what my Hit Rate actually is.  The data is sobering.  If I'm doing the math right, my Hit Rate is 53.26% so far.  Can someone please confirm looking at the attached?  @kachatz1, my understanding is that Hit Rate (HR) = Total Winning Bets (TWB) divided by Total Hands Bet (THB).  So HR = TWB / THB.  Correct?

Thanks!

Baccarat Practice.xlsx 11.11 kB · 9 downloads

Hey, Nate…just make sure you subtract ties from THB…a tie is neither a win, nor a loss…

[kachatz1]

Look, folks.

It is real simple…

1. over the long run, unless you can win more hands than you lose , you will fail
2. in the short run, a martingale, a d’alembert , a 1-2 progression , W.h.a.t.e.v.e.r might just could help you win way more than flat-betting.

 

I can create/ make up tons of scenarios where some form of progression will overcome short-term baccarat odds and get you a nice win…

But absent an unlimited bankroll, and remaining committed to playing-to-win ?

GOOD, BETTER, BEST YOU STUDY, PRACTICE,

          AND LEARN HOW2WIN More hands than you lose 

( conquer , and develop skills to consistently win, based on hit rate parameters?

There is no looking back …) 

[GerryM]

My opinion on flat betting. When I started playing in 2020 I used a negative progression. I did win and I did lose sessions. When I lost I went deep in a hole. I accepted that, and when I won, I still had a stop limit. Like the stop loss. I did keep accurate records on my play. After 6 months of play I was down for the year. I didn't like going into a big hole when I lost. It bothered me that I had to win a lot to make up for that loss. In 2021  I decided to try flat betting following @kachatz1 advice. I like NOT going deep in a hole when I lose my first few bets and I still have a stop win of 3 units with the exception of still playing if I am on a run or a chop (zig zag).  This year isn't over yet but I am up and I am up 62 units, and that includes a bad losing streak a few months ago. I am a broken record I say it all the time......Keep accurate records of your play! Start at $10 units, as you get better than up your unit size as your records prove that you can win flat betting. I started at $10 units, then went to $25 units and now I am at $50 units. I feel comfortable because I know if I lose my first 3 bets the most I can lose in any given session is $150. I have played side by side with @kachatz1 and he has seen my earlier play at $25 units and the last time we were together I was betting $50 units. At some point I will feel comfortable to play $100 units with an ultimate goal of playing $500 units in the future. At $500 units all I would need is to be up 1 unit to make $500. Now think about this, go back and check your score sheets, have you ever been up 1 or 2 units, but lost the session? Well if you played bigger units, (doesn't have to be $500 units) once you get to a +1 or +2 win,you stop playing, that takes discipline. It's hard to stop playing when you are winning, but I do it and I am up 62 units for the year flat betting, and I didn't start playing until I was vaccinated which was the middle of April. You might think 62 units is not a lot of units, but If I was betting $500 units? You do the math. Keep accurate records and flat betting is the way to go.

[barneypip]

Quote

On 12/10/2021 at 12:21 AM, winbac said:

The only reason people flat bet is because their bet selection is poor.

 

My hit rate being 57%, I'm not as good as some, but I wouldn't call it a poor bet selection.  I'm one of the "chickens" the dealers talk about.  "It's a streak!  Why doesn't he raise his bets?"    It's because I like the SAFETY of betting flat.  You MUST be able to handle the LOSING STREAKS when they come!  When my total bankroll increases to the point where I feel I can handle a larger bet, THEN I'll raise my bet.  I've done that 5 times now, but it's been over the course of almost 2 years.  Maybe that's where the confusion is.  The fact that I've pretty much doubled my bets 5 times over now --- does that mean that I really DON'T flat bet?  Does it mean that I've taken 2 years to make an "up-as-you win" progression, so that's not flat betting?  I really don't care how it's defined.  I only know it works for me so I'm sticking with it. 

Winbac also said: "You can bet as high as $1,000 bets."  Why stop there?  I currently flat bet yellows.  Don't want to be greedy, but at the same time if a business or an investment (and if you're serious about baccarat, that's how you MUST look at it!) is doing well, and your bankroll can handle it, it's time to expand.  "Make hay while the sun is shining."  God gifted me with the self-discipline and other traits that profitable baccarat demands.  I look at it as being a good steward with God's money.  Plus the better I do, the more I'm able to give.  It's a WONDERFUL feeling.  Nothing else has worked for me!  My bankroll isn't quite there yet, but as soon as it is, I'm increasing my flat bet again.  Success to all!    

[Nate W]

Thanks for sharing @GerryMand @barneypip!  May I ask how many units your current bankrolls are?  I’ve read different suggestions on the forum, but generally that an overall bankroll should cover 100 units, and be at least five times your daily bankroll.  Please let me know if you’ve got a different view.  

Thanks 🙏🏻 

[GerryM]

1 minute ago, Nate W said:

Thanks for sharing @GerryMand @barneypip!  May I ask how many units your current bankrolls are?  I’ve read different suggestions on the forum, but generally that an overall bankroll should cover 100 units, and be at least five times your daily bankroll.  Please let me know if you’ve got a different view.  

Thanks 🙏🏻 

My bankroll is over 150 units, my buy in at the table is 10 units ($500), more than enough to cover a 3 unit loss. If I lose my first bet I will bet 1/2 units until I get back to even, then I play full units again.

[barneypip]

I'm close to those suggestions altho I feel safe stretching them a bit because I flat bet.  Total bankroll is 90 units, daily (or trip)  is 20, this year's profit was 66 ish. (commissions and tips already taken out of that figure.  I'm done for the year because I fell in my driveway last week and fractured my kneecap.  Gonna be out for 6 - 8 weeks!! 😒  (Thank God I'm insured or my profits would have gone to the hospital!)

[Nate W]

Sorry to hear about your fall @barneypip.  Hope you heal up!  If you need someone to push you around in a wheelchair so you can play, I'll be in Vegas next week and would be happy to help!

[natural]

1 hour ago, barneypip said:

I'm close to those suggestions altho I feel safe stretching them a bit because I flat bet.  Total bankroll is 90 units, daily (or trip)  is 20, this year's profit was 66 ish. (commissions and tips already taken out of that figure.  I'm done for the year because I fell in my driveway last week and fractured my kneecap.  Gonna be out for 6 - 8 weeks!! 😒  (Thank God I'm insured or my profits would have gone to the hospital!)

hope you have a speedy recovery

[winbac]

10 hours ago, barneypip said:

My hit rate being 57%, I'm not as good as some, but I wouldn't call it a poor bet selection.  I'm one of the "chickens" the dealers talk about.  "It's a streak!  Why doesn't he raise his bets?"    It's because I like the SAFETY of betting flat.  You MUST be able to handle the LOSING STREAKS when they come!  When my total bankroll increases to the point where I feel I can handle a larger bet, THEN I'll raise my bet.  I've done that 5 times now, but it's been over the course of almost 2 years.  Maybe that's where the confusion is.  The fact that I've pretty much doubled my bets 5 times over now --- does that mean that I really DON'T flat bet?  Does it mean that I've taken 2 years to make an "up-as-you win" progression, so that's not flat betting?  I really don't care how it's defined.  I only know it works for me so I'm sticking with it. 

Winbac also said: "You can bet as high as $1,000 bets."  Why stop there?  I currently flat bet yellows.  Don't want to be greedy, but at the same time if a business or an investment (and if you're serious about baccarat, that's how you MUST look at it!) is doing well, and your bankroll can handle it, it's time to expand.  "Make hay while the sun is shining."  God gifted me with the self-discipline and other traits that profitable baccarat demands.  I look at it as being a good steward with God's money.  Plus the better I do, the more I'm able to give.  It's a WONDERFUL feeling.  Nothing else has worked for me!  My bankroll isn't quite there yet, but as soon as it is, I'm increasing my flat bet again.  Success to all!    

Well done barneypip that's getting up there . Once you have reached +60% consistently (about 6 u per shoe) you are in elite company. The top 0.5-0.25% in the world. 

Keep up the good work you are almost there.

Cheere

Winbac

[Hellboy]

9 hours ago, barneypip said:

I fell in my driveway last week and fractured my kneecap.  Gonna be out for 6 - 8 weeks!!

That is going to extremes to lock away a profit for the year mate.  Hope you are feeling better soon and all the best to you for Xmas and the New Year.

H

[winbac]

10 hours ago, barneypip said:

My hit rate being 57%, I'm not as good as some, but I wouldn't call it a poor bet selection.  I'm one of the "chickens" the dealers talk about.  "It's a streak!  Why doesn't he raise his bets?"    It's because I like the SAFETY of betting flat.  You MUST be able to handle the LOSING STREAKS when they come!  When my total bankroll increases to the point where I feel I can handle a larger bet, THEN I'll raise my bet.  I've done that 5 times now, but it's been over the course of almost 2 years.  Maybe that's where the confusion is.  The fact that I've pretty much doubled my bets 5 times over now --- does that mean that I really DON'T flat bet?  Does it mean that I've taken 2 years to make an "up-as-you win" progression, so that's not flat betting?  I really don't care how it's defined.  I only know it works for me so I'm sticking with it. 

Winbac also said: "You can bet as high as $1,000 bets."  Why stop there?  I currently flat bet yellows.  Don't want to be greedy, but at the same time if a business or an investment (and if you're serious about baccarat, that's how you MUST look at it!) is doing well, and your bankroll can handle it, it's time to expand.  "Make hay while the sun is shining."  God gifted me with the self-discipline and other traits that profitable baccarat demands.  I look at it as being a good steward with God's money.  Plus the better I do, the more I'm able to give.  It's a WONDERFUL feeling.  Nothing else has worked for me!  My bankroll isn't quite there yet, but as soon as it is, I'm increasing my flat bet again.  Success to all!    

When I said you can bet up to $1,000/hand that is my goal. Without a goal you don't know where you are heading. 

I started off playing $25 bets. It took me a long time to bet $50. Now my bankroll is secure enough for me to bet $200 bets.

Within a month my bankroll will allow me to bet $400/hand. (I always flat bet). By mid 2022 I will reach my goal of betting $1,000/ hand.

When I played $25 bets $1,000 was only a pipe dream. The more I practised the more I learned the more confident I became. 

While big bets seem to be out of your reach, by manically practising you can make it. In reality only a very very small amount of you will reach that level.

Most of you don't have the discipline or work ethic to reach that level. That's OK you all work to the level you feel comfortable with. 

Just remember what ever you really believe you can achieve you can achieve.

Cheers

Winbac

[barneypip]

Quote

On 12/11/2021 at 1:25 PM, Nate W said:

Sorry to hear about your fall @barneypip.  Hope you heal up!  If you need someone to push you around in a wheelchair so you can play, I'll be in Vegas next week and would be happy to help!

 

Thanks, Nate!  But even when I'm fully functional I only get to Vegas maybe twice a year.  Now I'll be lucky to get to my closest casino (Tampa) sometime in January.  Glad I saved my money!  Wanna push me around Tampa?  LOL!!  

[Mr.Bones]

Get well soon Barney

I believe in flat betting and increasing your hit rate 

I dont bet every hand, usually 10 or less in a shoe.  Remember even at 60% for that shoe your only +2 

[barneypip]

Thanks Mr B -  I average only about one bet  every 4 hands and rarely play a whole shoe.   Anything more is just not conducive to coming out ahead, at least not for me. Can’t win without being really picky. Thanks for the well-wishes!

[Nate W]

5 hours ago, barneypip said:

Wanna push me around Tampa?  LOL!!  

Sorry @barneypip, but I lived in Tampa for a year back in 2010 and don't want to go back.  Too flat for me.  I love the mountains too much here in Redmond, Oregon.   

[kachatz1]

On 12/12/2021 at 7:53 PM, Nate W said:

Sorry @barneypip, but I lived in Tampa for a year back in 2010 and don't want to go back.  Too flat for me.  I love the mountains too much here in Redmond, Oregon.   

All I remember from my Sports & Recreation sales trips to Tampa was those nearby beach bars, right on the beach!
And then a trip cross-state drive and overnight, to Sports Authority HQ in Ft. Lauderdale?

                                   PRICELESS

Heal-up, BP!

( oh, and you reading this every meet me? Ask me about ‘ that crazy night in Naples’

It’s pretty much PG-13, but one of the most memorable of my life…) 

 

Like I said, it’s PG-13

 

[Nate W]

On 12/11/2021 at 9:41 AM, GerryM said:

my buy in at the table is 10 units ($500), more than enough to cover a 3 unit loss. If I lose my first bet I will bet 1/2 units until I get back to even, then I play full units again

@GerryM, just curious why your buy-in is 10 units if your stop-loss is 3 units?  Wouldn’t it be wise to buy-in at the same amount as your stop-loss to prevent going over a stop-loss?  Asking for a friend.  😬

[barneypip]

I buy in with 5u and play with a stop-loss of 2u.  That gives me enough to play 2 losing games when that happens, plus cover the commissions on the bank wins before having to buy in again.  I try to buy-in as infrequently as possible because it holds up the game for everybody else.  If you're buying in with your stop-loss amount just so you won't go over your stop-loss, you might need to work on your self-discipline.  

Once a lady walked up to my table in Tampa with the game in progress and bought in with about $2000 in small bills.  Must have taken 20 minutes!  And THEN....she walks away with her chips without even placing a single bet!  There oughta be a law!!! 

[GerryM]

17 hours ago, Nate W said:

@GerryM, just curious why your buy-in is 10 units if your stop-loss is 3 units?  Wouldn’t it be wise to buy-in at the same amount as your stop-loss to prevent going over a stop-loss?  Asking for a friend.  😬

I have always bought in for $500 at the table, even when my unit size was $10. It's just a habit, and I am superstitious. I don't want to change anything. When I was betting $10 units I was betting a negative progression and needed the units.

Edited December 18, 2021 by GerryM

[mookie]

1 hour ago, GerryM said:

It's just a habit, and I am superstitious.

I know it's off topic so I'm wondering if a thread on "superstitions" might be fun...

[Nate W]

2 hours ago, mookie said:

I know it's off topic so I'm wondering if a thread on "superstitions" might be fun...

There are definitely superstitions in Baccarat!  I seen a lot of very interesting rituals when playing with others.

[Hellboy]

8 hours ago, barneypip said:

And THEN....she walks away with her chips without even placing a single bet!  There oughta be a law!!! 

Yes barneypip, don't you hate that situation, and I agree fully with you. The casino doesn't mind as it is another distraction.  In a lot of cases, the person is there to say, 'Hey look at me..........'  They don't sound like winners to me mate. 

H