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Hi Everyone: Need to understand how many of our current members when on the gaming floor, FLAt BET (Let's keep KEVIN out of it, as we know he Flat bets every time, or does he?)or use some level of NEGATIVE PROGRESSION. For Example below. 

This will help us understand each person's personality and how they approach the game. The reason for this is that the club can teach you different systems and approaches, but if you can't get a handle on your bankroll, you will get disappointed and lose most of the time. Need to be honest!!!!

Thank you,



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I have been flat betting for the past 3 years using a 1-2 loop ONLY after being up 4 units or more.  My stop loss is 4 units per shoe NO EXCEPTIONS.

However my hit rate is not over 50%  on a consistent shoe to shoe basis,  but I am not chasing my losses in the shoes if I lose 4 units in a shoe.

If I lose 2 shoes in a day of playing the worst case scenario would be a STOP LOSS of 8 units per session.  This will protect my bankroll from a big loss in a session of multiple shoes played that day at the casinos.

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I have also tried most of the betting systems, not just in Baccarat, but in Craps and Roulette.  It's unbelievable how creative some people can be.  That being said, I mostly flat bet now.  I will use a mild Plus 1 in a difficult shoe, being happy to break even.

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

Good commentary here.

There are many, many betting progressions which can be USEFUL, OR, DESTRUCTIVE...” depending”...

     SPOILER ALERT: Everything logical for you as a player depends on your “ hit rate” ( percentage of bets you win, vs. those you lose.), your bankroll, your tolerance for risk and your understanding of how to read a shoe, and bet/don’t bet accordingly

I never ventured progressed to the math level of  QUADRATIC EQUATIONS ...( surprisingly, my former wife did) , but if I had, thinking I could give you a A+B, -2xC, divided by .5A = D ( decision...what to do/ bet how much).

                 ( substitute P, B, numerical results, O/R count, bankroll, etc...)

        . Or something like that...I don’t understand it, likely you wouldn’t, and it might take a calculator at the table to make any decisions ( um, not allowed...)

Yes, I do believe flat betting is the long term best option for the vast majority of players.

That said, tomorrow Keith working on a another video as part of his review of BTC Legacy approaches to Baccarat  bet decision-making.

It might help those of you who want to go beyond simple flat betting, but at a reduced risk than some of the more historically infamous systems which were primarily developed for Roulette...


Stay tuned. 

Edited by kachatz1
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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

1) “  improving “ your BetSelection win-rate day by day, week by week, month by month should ( IMO) be your #1 TARGET to aim for.

      - so make sure you measure it, increment-by-increment, until you finally settle on what measurement yields the best results...( Rinse & Repeat)...careful to keep accurate daily and cumulative stats to help you truly evaluate/ improve your progress.

2) Next, learn how to break-down your results /  measurements into sequences smaller than a whole shoe... ( 1 hand, 10 hands, 1/2 a shoe, etc...etc...) 

                - This is Manufacturing 101 !! ( they don’t start by evaluating the finished product, they break-down the individual components of measurement to focus on each procedure, each process...the result being a better outcome!

                - NOTE : Your hit-rate will likely ascend over time, and as you gain confidence in same, you will become a better / more successful player!


     + EVALUATION OF RESULTS (more  practice, study/review of plays made ) 

          + CONTINUAL ‘ ADJUSTMENT”  To create your own methodology works best for you




                         ( and this is how you will win flat-betting)

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I currently flat bet except when I am in a 1-2 chop. Then I play a simple 1,2 negative progression. This is very low risk. If you are flat betting, you make 1 unit on a single and 0 on the 2 iar. When you finally get the 3 iar you lose 2 units. When you use the 1,2 progression, you make 1 unit on the singles, 1 on the 2 iar and lose 3 on the 3 iar. 

Example:                                            Shoe: 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 3

                                                        Flat bet: 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, -2= 3

                                          1,2 Progression: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -3= 5

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OK — S.U.G.G.E.S.T.I.O.N...here you go...



(a) Starting with betting hands 1-10, establish a “GOAL” for yourself 1st 10 hands ( Flat-betting , win 1 more than you lose, only making 1 bet those sit 10 hands,  MAX!)   When you get to +1 or -1 , even it is your very 1st bet, COMPLETELY (!)    STOP BETTING UNTIL HAND 11( excluding ties) 


(b) Hands 11-20 the same, still down to 1 bet max, and if you get to +1 or- 1 within this range , COMPLETELY STOP BETTING UNTIL HAND 21 ( excluding ties)


(c) Repeat for hands 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, etc etc until shoe is over



          Wayyyyyyyyyy LESS FREQUENTLY,

                           BUT WITH MORE CAREFUL CONSIDERATION,

                                                      AND YOU WILL BECOME A LONG TERM WINNER


- You will gradually improve your hit rate.

     - Your confidence will grow.

          - Your ability to discern between BadBets,




                                                                   Best Bets

                                                                                               - Will improve by the day.

And you will forever understand how/why your HIT RATE %  is the most important tool in your toolbox, the one measurement which will give you the ability&confidence to increase your unit size.

Ignore this  @ your own risk  ( and please, don’t say I never told you so...)

There you have it SoulJ- -  (and no...Lessons 2-?? Are not even up for discussion....) So pulleeze don’t ask until you master 101, and have demonstrated just exactly how you went about it for everyone on this forum...

( I just somebody told me about 101 years ago...)


Edited by kachatz1
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  • 1 month later...
  • 2 months later...

Hi: I mostly flat bet until I get to a certain sub level. Each pattern, which I call levels, has a calculated number of sub-levels depending on the pattern. Then depending on what the score-card reads I raise my bet. It is a very limited negative progression and I use a 1-3 unit bet spread only...    

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  • 1 year later...

I've came across a system called "star 2.0" on youtube.  it's a hybrid system.  It has two stages.

Stage 1 is flat betting until you're down 7 units.

Stage 2 is a neg. progression (5, 5, 10, 10, 15, 20, 25, 35, 45, 60)

After a win you parlay it once. The "hammer" bet.  If the hammer bet wins, start all over at 1 unit. (I stop at this point if I'm ahead 1+ units)



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