ECD

The 3 4 5 Progression...The Progression you play when you don't actually use a progression LOL It's time the "Myth" of the 3 4 5 Progression was exposed for what it is... just more BS from "He who must be worshipped and adored" The 3 4 5 Prog has been variously described as "SAFE"...an "EXPLOIT PROGESSION" and an "AGGRESSIVE PROGRESSION" This from "The Forum that cannot be named"...Flat Betting is for the amateur who has no confidence in his side selection skills – his system play and his System Selection. Flat betting is best when you have no play skills. But once you have developed good playing skills and table selection skills – you leave flat betting behind – for the amateurs. Come with me on this... With the 3 4 5 ...you are basing at 3 units... If you win your first bet there is no difference in the result to just Flat Betting If you LOSE your first bet and WIN your second bet...You are at +1 which in reality = one-third of a unit... If you LOSE your first 2 bets and WIN your third...you are at -2 =minus two-thirds of a unit ...but to be fair still one third of a unit better off than someone just Flat Betting But if you LOSE your third bet...you are -12 = - 4 Units which is one full unit worse off than someone just Flat Betting ...swings and roundabouts ... if you must play a progression this is almost as safe as it gets but one thing it is not... IT IS NOT AN EXPLOIT ...NOR IS IT AN AGGRESSIVE PROGRESSION...It is SAFE because you are only increasing your LOSING Bet by one third of a Unit..."The Negative Prog you play when you are hardly playing a Negative Prog" The high scores often quoted by "He who must be worshipped and adored" are simply because he bases at 3 Units and compares his results with Players basing at 1 unit...apples and oranges...just more "Snake Oil Salesman" Bullshit. Here is his explanation of the success of the 3 4 5 on his Public Forum which he found time to post in between smashing me ...Problem is...he just shoots himself in the foot. 1 would like to show you a very practical demonstration of what we have discussed thus far that highlights the difference between flat betting vs progressive betting, and then highlights System Selection, and finally highlights Exploiting with the 345. Let’s take a common example of 20 plays – about 1/4 of a full shoe. P1231231232 (our short cut method of posting shoes) Long form: P BB PPP B PP BBB P BB PPP BB Note that this is ten Players and ten Banks and contains nothing unusual – all 1’s and 2s and 3s. I’ll start all examples at play 2 so they are equally comparable. Results: OUR SAP count is telling us High 2s and 3s right from the beginning...What frigging SAP count?...You started 3 4 5 from the beginning of the shoe... That is always OTB4L. Single 1’s, 2s and 3s are what we call OTB4L events. And this column of 20 plays is ALL single 1’s, 2s and 3s. So now let’s play it OTB4L with a 1,2 progression. Now it scores +13 with a highest bet of only 2 units. Great, but now let’s add Progression Selection. At play 4 we are already winning twice as many bets as we are losing and we get better from there. This definitely calls for our safest Exploit progression the 345. We score +27 in a quarter of a shoe ! Still want to Flat Bet? Flat Betting is for untrained amateurs. See that? So let’s play This is a perfect OTB4L shoe. Here is how we would play it with the 345 – one of our safest yet most aggressive progressions. I played his designer sample shoe just to compare the various betting strategies. This is typical Ellis...He provides a shoe that will prove exactly what he wants to prove but this time it backfired badly. Sure, he scored +27 but he started basing at 3 which means his total number of winning units has to be divided by 3 = +9...He keeps omitting that teeny detail His 1 2 NP prog wins +13 or +39 if he bases at 3...(Fairs fair Ellis)...So his own 1 2 NP in his own sample shoe shits all over his Exploit 3 4 5 Progression... Congratulations, you just shot yourself in the foot in your own sample shoe...LMFAO...Then he posts at the completion of his Sample shoe when he thinks he has proved how great the 3 4 5 is..."I REST MY CASE"...Ellis...you blithering idiot...you just proved yourself wrong...That really takes a special kind of stupid. Memo to self: Don't ever let Ellis represent me in Court. BTW: here is the PA for both methods used 3 4 5 Prog = +27 divided by 3 = +9...PA = 43% ...Sure Flat Betting was only +7 or +21 basing at 3 with a PA of 37% but the difference is hardly anything to write home about and certainly doesn't live up to the hype. 1 2 Neg Prog = +39 basing at 3 or +13... PA = 52%...YEP Ellis...That 3 4 5 Prog works a real treat...LOL I suspect that Ellis was trying to compare his 3 4 5 Prog with Norm's 1 2 LOOP but he has never understood it or believed it would work These are the results of the different Loops used... 1 2 Continuous Loop = +16... PA = 57%...It's your sample shoe Ellis...not mine 2 3 Continuous Loop = +23 divided by 2 because we base at 2 = +11.5...PA = 45% 3 4 Continous LOOP which is the SAFEST LOOP OF ALL because we only increase our unit size by one-third of a unit = +37 divided by 3 = +12...PA= 56% So...There you go Ellis..."I REST MY CASE"! BTW: For those that are interested...the 3 4 LOOP is worth further investigation.

To all those interested parties on the fence about joining the private forum, as of 01-18-18 there are 1,557 shoes that have been uploaded by premium members. The shoes are real, and have been recorded from casinos all over the world. There is no forum that that offers this amount of REAL shoes and advice from REAL players that play for a living, not like other forums where they make unrealistic "War-Stories" while play the shoe backwards and tell you they were +672 units using 7, 8, 9 unit progressions up as you win. You can look at the shoes as a whole or play them one hand at a time. You are doing yourself an incredible disservice to yourself and to your potential game. Jump in head first and join BTC!!!!!!!!!!

I'm just wondering why you find it funny that people have lost their jobs?

Just a thought...When checking your Stats, look at one sequence at a time. It's easier, quicker and you avoid mistakes. (at least most of them) Another big mistake (which it sounds like you are guilty of) is to be making too many bets. I expect to be betting on average slightly less than 50% of hands...sometimes more in an easy to read shoe and sometimes much less in a difficult shoe. That means that 50% of Hands are not good bets and there lies one of the really big problems with "Mechanical Negative Progressions"...They FORCE you to make BAD bets...That is beyond stupid... The top players on BTC do not use Negative Progressions and if you require a NP to win at Baccarat then your bet selection sux. I can give you a cast iron guarantee that there is not a single Baccarat Player on the planet betting every hand whose PA gets even close to mine and if they say different...they are "pulling their pud". (I had to explain that saying to Norm...but I think that you get my drift) While I am on the subject of Negative Progressions...The majority of NP aficionados strongly advocate "Table Selection" in order for them to win. I mean seriously... Have you ever heard anything so stupid?...You have an unbeatable system that only works well if you choose the right table. I could get my dog to crap on my scorecard and if I chose the right table, I would still win. The top players on BTC have no need of "Table Selection" because we play what we see.

The 500 shoes are just for starters...Hopefully, the next 500 provide similar stats...and the next 500 and the next. Sometimes, I think that a certain sequence of events is even more successful than I had hoped only to come back to the field in the next 500 (which can be a touch soul destroying after all that work) but it is still information that I can use. There is no such thing as wasted time when it comes to research.

OK...This is what I do which doesn't necessarily make it the best method but it works for me. STEP 1 I screenshot and saved to Dropbox the Tote Boards of every Casino played shoe on Stats for Profit (ignore the RG shoes because they won't help you) Not as bad as it sounds because there are only around 2300 real casino shoes. I have also screenshot the Tote Boards of almost all the shoes on Strategic Baccarat ...close to 4000 shoes all up which added to shoes that I had already saved gives me a substantial base to work from. Initially though, 1000 shoes is a good enough base and doesn't take as long as you think. Pour over those Tote Boards till you have Red and Blue dots coming out of where the sun don't shine Most players have an idea of a sequence of events that they commonly see and this is an ideal and fairly quick way to check it out. I split my stats into groups of 100 shoes and 500 shoes respectively. If you are on the money, the averages should be pretty close depending on how frequent the event occurs. Don't rely on 100 shoes only as tempting as it may be when you see what you are hoping to see. Baccarat is about consistency of events. 100 shoes will tell you whether your sequence is worth further investigation or just an idea worth dumping. A word of warning...Don't fudge the figures. Check out length of opposite events...what happens when the opps are broken by a single run of 2+ or 3+...Do the opps continue on the side opp to the run or are the opps more likely to continue on the same side as the run or is there no real consistency on average. Check 2'sMC and 2's LC on both sides and each side individually. Look for your SS Triggers ...RD1 Triggers...Selective OTB4L (only rarely does OT work on both sides at the same time) Are RMC (Recent Most Common) events stronger than overall SAP? etc...etc...etc... You will frequently come across a sequence of events that is not what you were expecting and will either be worth betting or worth avoiding (one of those BAD bets that we don't touch with a barge pole) Every bit of research will tell you something...is it an idea worth pursuing...is it a seriously strong bet...a good bet...an ok bet... a nothing bet or a really BAD bet. No research is wasted. STEP 2 Now, its time to put your research into practice...This is where Strategic Baccarat comes into it's own...Bring up the "One hand at a time option" Don't bother playing whole shoes yet...your object should be to get to +4 because once you hit it...no way should you ever go below zero. The object is not to lose and the winning will take care of itself. Once you hit +4...record how many wins and losses and look at how often you go negative first up and ask yourself the question "WHY" and move on to the next shoe. Don't worry about half unit starts at this point and stop playing if you hit -4 and record the shoe as a losing shoe. Recognise that the reason that the majority of players start with a negative bet is "impatience"...Don't jump in too soon...WAIT for an event that you know gives you the best chance of starting with a win. Try to make your early decisions in the shoe from reading the Tote Board only...much quicker and will bring you up to speed with your Tote Board reading. That's enough homework for one night...pretty simple eh?...How hard can it be? BTW: All future discussions on this subject should be taken to the Private Forum. I'm hoping to answer a few of your more specific questions on the 25th. I hope to do a Play by Play of a shoe that was posted on BTC by one of our Public Forum members that has been described as the perfect OTB4L and show that all is not as it seems.

I cannot agree more Jimmy. I once would have argued the point because in my arrogance I thought that I didn't need Stats for Profit or Strategic Baccarat. I was right...and I was wrong. I was right in that I had reached the stage in my evolution as a player that I didn't need either of these learning tools to win at Baccarat. I was wrong in that the use of these tools has improved my play out of sight and my Tote Board recognition is already beyond expectations... and for inexperienced players, your learning curve will be accelerated far beyond what we long-term players ever achieved. I seriously doubt that there is any player reading this post (with two exceptions) who can get near my average PA (Player Advantage) and certainly none from "The ForumThat Cannot Be Named" and all three of us make extensive use of Strategic Baccarat. I would suggest that if Strategic Baccarat is improving the play of Players who are already regular winners then anyone deciding that they don't need it has been drinking from the same Kool-aid bottle as Carlos. (if you get my drift) To my knowledge...Strategic Baccarat is the best Baccarat Learning Tool on the Net and the only place it is available is right here on BTC. Keith asked for input on improvements from the players...listened to our thoughts and produced a near perfect Baccarat interface. BTC is going from strength to strength with no outrageous claims (read...Blatant Lies) about immediate success necessary. It's been a hard and expensive grind for him and kudos to him for following through with his vision.

Sorry to disagree but I find 1's are such unreliable little suckers that for me the most important question is whether 2's will stay 2 ... 2's MC and 2's LC are easier to predict.

Agreed...Good to have BronxAl back even though I lose my mantle as the oldest of the "Old Farts on BTC"...I think he has me beat by 30 years or so ...Makes me feel like a teenager again

Food for thought, There is no system that "You would apply first" in the middle or the ending of the game. Reasons for this will not be discussed on the public forum. If you are a premium member there is no reason for you to even step foot in the public forum anymore. All of the valuable information and answers to your questions will be in the private forum. Start a new thread, ask your questions and you will get a plethora of answers from some great players.

Hi @BronxAl, good to see you here again!

If you look at my past posts you will also see my evolution as I learned more and more about this game. I am sorely tempted to post the semi mechanical system from my early days that was a NP but with a maximum bet of 2 units which Ellis took and f***d right up...which I think became the precursor to his 2Hi system, but as successful as it was...It would still have it's bad days and I hate the thought that people may lose money because of me. w2f is a maths guy and I figure that if anyone could refine it...he could but for me...my average Player Advantage is currently in the high 30's to 40+% and I can't go back to semi-mechanical. You can't go past learning to read the DAMN shoe...which takes time to learn but the rewards are there.

I could shoot you down in flames but to be frank...I can't be arsed...suffice to say that when it comes to Baccarat, you haven't a clue. Which part of "Mathematics doesn't beat Baccarat" ...don't you understand? Nothing you have said has anything to do with Baccarat and the Mechanical Negative Progression that you promote whether hand shuffled or shufflemaster is up there with the most braindead stupid most dangerous Progressions that I have ever seen. It simply cannot win long term as it didn't with you. (even though you blame shufflemaster and not natural variance) We don't do Negative Progressions on BTC We don't do mechanical systems on BTC BTC is about winning with minimal risk...Please don't promote that dumb sh*t...There may be people gullible enough to believe you.

BTW: My Bankroll effectively doubles every 6 or 7 shoes with a STOP/LOSS risk factor of 2.5% per shoe...How does that work with your fancy computations?...LOL Norm used a 10% Bankroll risk factor but he had balls of steel...5% is pretty safe but 2.5% has psychological benefits with larger units.(which coincidently isn't that much different to w2f's 1% of Bankroll rule)

I'm guessing that your wife is Asian or her nickname is Woody 444

Woody, the bottom line is this. Mathematicians have never been able to figure out how to beat this game because they approach it from a mathematical point of view using probability of the statistical outcome of cards. Now read my lips "The cards are fixed". The automatic shuffler (Shufflemaster) DOES NOT SHUFFLE. Instead It PREARRANGES the cards in an anti trending order designed to make you lose by a much higher margin than the natural statistical outcome of the cards. This by the way, is a secret that even the dealers dealing don't know. There are algorithms that control the order of the cards and each shoe is programmed different. THAT is why PhDs cannot figure it out. We on the other hand study the most common sequences of the shoe in front of us and find the many biases in the shoe and take advantage of the them. Here's some trivia. In blackjack, there was a time years ago where you could win with a single or double hand dealt deck of cards if you learned perfect basic strategy. This was proven by mathematician and Phd Edward Thorp. Now with the introduction of continuous shuffle machines (CSM) it's not possible anymore. Today's preshuffled machines are the equivalent of blackjacks CSMs, BUT we have found ways to take advantage of the biases in baccarat BECAUSE, unlike the CSMs, in baccarat once the cards are in the dispenser, they cannot change. So once we the players figure out the biases in the shoe, we can take advantage of them. The casino at this point does not have the luxury of changing the outcome of the cards. Moreover, there are certain sequences and events that almost always happen in most baccarat games. These are MC and LC events etc. When you've put in the hard yards to figure out what they are like some of our successful players on this forum have done, then and only then can you beat this game.

Edwin, you haven’t listened to me. For your own sake, please listen to what Oz is telling you.

Edwin...I gotta tell you this...all my friends are commenting on the newly acquired flat spot on my forehead...You do know what has caused this flat spot...don't you Edwin? It's from me bashing my head on the table every time you think that you have found a new Negative Progression that works. The majority of NP's actually win at the start due to the mathematics of the game...but the same mathematics (variance) means that"EVERY NP WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE!" I don't know what more I can say to you Edwin...There is not a single consistent long term winner on BTC that uses NP's. STOP looking for shortcuts...There aren't any. Every system/idea that you come up with has already been tried multiple times and has already failed multiple times. You need to ditch these ideas...STOP looking for the Holy Grail and just put in the time and effort required to beat this game. It can be done...but not your way.

With any form of Negative Progression, there is always an "until"...Sooner or later you will lose badly...it is inevitable...and just as inevitable are the excuses that come out for losing...ask Ellis...Those pesky casinos were always changing the cards on him...LOL Norm was without a doubt the most respected player ever on BTC and he once called me "INSANE" for daring to make a 7 unit bet. I'll leave it to your imagination as to what he would have said about making a 15 unit bet when already down -26 units.. As I read it...The first B4 in the shoe is gonna kill you...and you don't want to contemplate what I think about a -500 unit STOP/LOSS. You have to win 5 shoes to every one losing shoe just to break even. I operate a -2 STOP/LOSS and can lose 5 or 6 shoes for every winning shoe and still be in front. I seriously hope that you never revisit this system because it won't end well. It wasn't the shuffle master that caused you to lose...it was the inevitability of NP's eventually losing...night following day... BTW: A "Gee up" is Aussie for "are you winding me up?"...or "are you just taking the piss?"

3 Hi was pretty bad too.

Worst Baccarat Systems???...Two that come to mind...ANB and MvD...Guess what the common denominator is...LOL

This is a "Gee Up"...RIGHT?

Will keep an eye out for them — would welcome an impromptu meet up or rumble.

Well , great job. Keep up the good work!!!