System 40 Advanced

[Guest]

For the far out thinkers among us:

It occurs to me that we are now playing 40 as perfectly as it can be played. I'm trying apply the same to RD, but its a brain twister until you look at it in different lingo.

When we say go OTR under a two in a row we are also saying:

After one loss.... or after ONE REPEAT

SAP does not track opposites in a row, just repeats in a row

a 2 is one repeat

A 3 is also 2 repeats in a row

A 4 is also 3 repeats in a row

So we are tracking and properly reacting to Rs in a row but what about Os in a row to play RD perfectly. How do we do that?

See, LC among Rs in a row we have for Sys 40

But how to we get Os LC? for RD

Which is LC among single 1's, double 1's and triple 1's. How do we know, How do we track it?

But it seems to me that if in RD we know which is LC that we can play RD far better than ever before just as we are playing 40 better than ever before.

I'm sure the info is there waiting for us to decipher it. But I blew my brain out just trying to figure out how to ask the question. Any ideas?

Edited August 28, 2010 by Guest

[slider8]

Here's a clue:

Single 1's are half of all events.

Double 1's occur at half the frequency of Single 1's.

Triple 1's occur at half the frequency of double 1's

So the 50% rule applies to Opposites exactly the same as it applies to Repeats.

We just never had a reason to look at it that way before. But perfect RD play demands we look at it now.

We probably should have considered this phenomenon with SAP. It just never occured to me. Well, better late than never.

Actually this is something I've been working on for the last few months. The general concept you're describing I refer to as "1's Clusters". In other words when you do see 1's, are they rolling out as singles, doubles, triples, etc. I find this to be much more useful than whether 1's in total are above or below average.

Ellis, I think mathematically you are correct. If you want to do an SAP chart for 1's clusters I think the following values would work:

single: 1 point

double: 2 points

triple: 4 points

quadruple: 8 points

etc, etc,....

Also you can certainly keep track of SAP 1's clusters and regular SAP events on the same score sheet. You can keep track of P/B results and over all score in the middle. You can track traditional SAP events to the right of P/B results (just as always). Track SAP 1's clusters to the left of P/B results.

With 1's clusters any time you have 2 in a row straight after a confirmed 1, you know your cluster has ended and you can record it in your chart.

[ECD]

Right Slider and good thinking. But will the avg player have time to do all that at casino speed? Maybe, in that way, we should be happy that the game is slower today.

Check this out:

I'm thinking to conform to the way we count repeats

The first circle of a ZZ run which is actually a repeat should be 1 point

The second circle 2 points

the third circle 4 points

the 4th 8 points

Consider that a 2112 is actually a 4 in a row ZZ

3 repeats in a row gets 8 points

so 3 Ops in a row should also get 8 points

What do you think?

Edited August 29, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

Right Jersey! With system 40 we always win on 1s anyway so LC is decided betweem 2s, 3s and 4s.

With OTB4L we always win on 2s so LC is decided between 3s, 4s and CONFIRMED 5s. But we must also look at ZZ runs with OTB4L and decide those independently from straight runs. We will get into that in more detail when we cover OTB4L in the 4S manual. I didn't mean to distract you. Right now we need to concentrate on RD and F2.

Another related question is when do we Net Bet vs when do we play OTB4L since they both like the same shoe type?

That is going to require some deep thought on my part.

[MVSeahog]

All,

Well, in order to attempt to keep the conversations in the correct threads, I've moved myself over here from the ADN thread to continue with Sys40 stuff.

I've found that Sys40, just plain Sys40 as it was originally played (opposites until two losses then ONE repeat bet) is about as bulletproof as you can get with an absolute minimum of intervention on the part of the player!

In my own case, the main way for me to use it is when I'm just killing time at the house, the wife is getting ready for "us" to do something someplace else and she's not ready. I'll take a quick look at the online casino and see how the current shoe looks.

What's that? Not a three in sight! Hmm, why not quickly toss a few wagers in under Sys40 and see what comes up. Pick up a quick 3 or 4 units and head out.

Lots of 2's in the shoe? Yep, you're golden for sure now.

It's simple, requires no paperwork and can literally be done "on the fly", especially if you have some prior knowledge of what's happening in the shoe! The perfect setup for online play!

If you'll look at my old "MVS+" system you'll immediately recognize that it bases a lot on Sys40 but elects to chase any run of 3 rather than jump back to Opps.

MVS

Edited September 9, 2010 by MVSeahog
Miscellaneous

[Audionut]

Take a look at my CORRECTED pdf file.... This stays simple, plus adapts to runs automatically... everyone makes the same decision, plays the same way, PLUS perhaps net betting can make it stronger????

system 40 adv simplified.PDF

Edited September 9, 2010 by Audionut

[jerseyslim]

Personally I wouldn't want to take something that's simple and then hope by making it more difficult, it's going to win more money. I think usuallly the opposite. Keep it simple on this one in my opinion.

[Audionut]

Thats my point exactly! This way of play is incredibly simple! And i think net betting could make it invincible.

[ECD]

I think System 40 is as close to perfect Baccarat as you can get. And I think the more you play it and understand it the better you get. I don't use an SAP chart for casino play. I simply go by whether my last initial OTR bet won or lost and play accordingly. I look at ZZ and straight runs separately. I look at jumping back off the run exactly the same way. The only thing that MIGHT bother you a little is super streak. In that case I play the opposite of system 40 which is RD 1.

Hey, I went 3 years W/O a losing trip playing morning cards at Tunica exactly that way. Several trips I won EVERY shoe. In other words just using my head. Its when you try to put common sense into hard rules that you run into trouble. Every single shoe has its own best Sys 40 solution. If you are just close, you win and every now and then you NAIL a shoe.

On a good morning I switch to the 23456 prog and go for 25 or 30.

I was playing BJ with Keith's wife one night when a Bac dealer stopped at our table and said to Suzanne: I don't know why Ellis is playing BJ when he never loses at Bac. I was wondering the same thing!

Edited October 31, 2010 by ECD

[jerseyslim]

Ellis.......you say you look at your ZZ and straight runs separately. Could you be more explicit. How do you use that information going forward in the shoe. I wouldn't think you'd worry about the zz's since you want them as long as possible and the streaks, what does the length of the streak tell you what to do further in the shoe. I assume when you play with no SAP you hop on the run for one bet and then back again to the opposites. Just want to make sure because we're starting to get some conflicting things here now.

[ECD]

Ellis.......you say you look at your ZZ and straight runs separately. Could you be more explicit. How do you use that information going forward in the shoe. I wouldn't think you'd worry about the zz's since you want them as long as possible and the streaks, what does the length of the streak tell you what to do further in the shoe. I assume when you play with no SAP you hop on the run for one bet and then back again to the opposites. Just want to make sure because we're starting to get some conflicting things here now.

You are right! I was wrong! You might want to save this post as it might be worth money some day. When I mentioned ZZs I was thinking of OTB4L, not 40. Right, upon seeing an LC (its usually obvious even with no Sap chart, and if its too close to call it doesn't matter much anyway) I hop on the run for only one or 2 bets depending on the length of the runs thus far. I ALWAYS start with 4s culprit because you CAN"T LOSE until there is a 4 or more in the shoe and this often takes a while. Meanwhile you beat all 1's, 2s and 3s which is 87% of all events. That way everything is completely automatic until you have your first 4 in a row. On the first 4 I usually don't bet at all and just wait for the run to end. After that, I've got something to go on.

[jerseyslim]

Due to your first couple of sentences, I think I'll print and frame this response. LOL

[MVSeahog]

I assume when you play with no SAP you hop on the run for one bet and then back again to the opposites.

Jersey,

That's exactly how I played it today in a "quick" set when we hit the casino today. This was not scheduled and as I only had $80 in my pocket and no tracking sheets that I was comfortable with, I threw caution to the winds and just played plain System 40 on the $10 table. If I lost a 1,2,3 set I'd be out $60 and still able to buy food on the way home.

As it turned out, I wound up at +4 when the shoe ended and the only other player left the table. At this point they upped the minimum to $25 with nobody else playing on any table!

I've found that Sys40 (plain) works very well in situations like this especially online when time is short.

I forgot to mention that it was NOT a full shoe. Only maybe 14 or 15 hands dealt before end of the shoe.

MVS

Edited September 10, 2010 by MVSeahog
Hands dealt

[Audionut]

Whoops nevermind sorry

Edited September 11, 2010 by Audionut

[jerseyslim]

I sometimes bet a second 2 after a loss, with the U1D2M2. I'm still a bit conservative.

What a good idea, putting those three systems together like that. I always did like System40. Is your betting progression U1D2 M2? I noticed a couple of times you followed a losing 2 with another 2 unit bet.

I tried to follow your example on a couple of shoes I had, and it did very well. Thanks for the post-

[jerseyslim]

Took my weekly to Mt. Airy today. Hit my 20 units in 2 shoes. The second shoe was over fast when the shoe provided a 10 streak on player side and I was playing RD1. However, the first shoe was rather interesting. In fact I was down 15 units after a 6 bet. I decided to go for one more but didn't want to exceed -20 so I made a 5 unit bet which won and enabled me to go on from there. Totally turned things around and wound up +10. That was quite a swing. I'll put the shoe up here so you can see it. I started off in the system40 mode after 4 opposites in a row. I started betting at hand 7 which was a little early for me. Usually want 8-10 hands done before placing a bet. At hands 9-10 wound up with a threesome so with all the singles and this threesome I decided to shift to F2. Things were going ok but then in looking back from hands 12-21, all the hands won were opposites. So at hand 22 I shifted back to system40. Hands 32-34 were all losses. Part of that was my fault. You'll note at hand 33 I should have bet B but instead, seeing how the 2's were lagging I decided to go OTR on hand 33 and lost so I stayed on opposites then and lost hand 34. At 35, don't know why I did it, especially with all the 2's coming out, but stupidly went F2 which was the wrong time for that and lost the next two hands. DUMB!!!!! So now I was ticked at myself and had now lost a 5 and 6 unit bet. This is where I decided to make one last bet. I immediately shifted to RD1 after realizing my mistake, and as they say, the rest is history. This was the start to my climb back. I put myself in jeopardy because of some bad mistakes. However, the more I play, the more confidence I get in making these larger progression amounts. However, I never want to go more than -20. Played the balance of the shoe, that is as far as I wanted to go, and wound up with a +10. I didn't even want to continue working the shoe. I had to get up and cool off a bit after that one. Just a side note, you'll notice I've done away with the O/R column towards the right side. Two reasons for this. Last time I was in the casino, my O/R was calling for one thing, but when looking at the more current information provided by the R/O column they were conflicting. I tried to stay with the O/R count but was getting wacked while the shorter term O/R was telling me the way I should be betting now. If I see a lot of red number in these columns, it's really telling me that at least for now, the shoe is turning choppy. Now I could have had a -10 count in the O/R column but that might be down from a -18. So although the longer term indicator was saying stay one way, the O/R count had made a drastic turn in the other direction. There's no miracle pill for what the correct solution is, but for me personally, I'm getting a better feeling as to which way to go by looking at what's going on now, and are we running a lot of 1's or 2's at the current time. There's no 100% correct indicator either way. One is longer term the other is more of a shorter term indicator. For now, I'll go with what's happening now and not be influenced by the longer term stuff. Let's face it, that information could be outdated and that bias now long gone. I also think that if you're going with system40, you can be right and wrong at the same time and still make out ok.

Edited September 18, 2010 by jerseyslim

[MVSeahog]

Jersyslim,

Nice job and a nice "save" for that shoe.

I thought I was the only one who would switch to Sys40 mid-shoe and IMMEDIATELY hit a run of three!

Thanks for posting it up and the commentary.

MVS

[John12345]

Thanks for posting the shoe, it was good practice for me. I scored +21 with my System40/F2RD combo, Low was +1.

[jerseyslim]

After the fact I know there were things I coulda shoulda done that would have made life easier in that shoe. But the dumbest one was when the shoe was running high in the 2's and I went to

F2 at hand 35. Don't know what the heck I was thinking. But I'm learning and gaining confidence in myself and how I want to tackle each shoe.

[John12345]

Ahh my post went away. Anyway..I said that I hit +21 with this shoe and thanks for posting it was good practice for me. My low was +1 using a combo of System40/F2-Repeats.

If anyone has been playing on Bet Phoenix lately then the shoes have been great for system 40 although they do look kind of streaky today

[jerseyslim]

Hey John, we'll take the shoes either way. Good to hear from you.

Ahh my post went away. Anyway..I said that I hit +21 with this shoe and thanks for posting it was good practice for me. My low was +1 using a combo of System40/F2-Repeats.

If anyone has been playing on Bet Phoenix lately then the shoes have been great for system 40 although they do look kind of streaky today

[hans berger]

Hi so whats your play if there is a few 3"s here in queensland they seem to have about 4 to 5 3 "s per 55 hand shoe.

[ECD]

Hi Hans! Recognize that your SAP chart correctly identifies L.C. throughout the entire shoe regadless of the number of hands played or the number of decks used. L.C is L.C. regardless of which continent you happen to be on. It's sort of an intercontinental advantage. In 55 plays, normal 3's is 3.44 but it doesn't really matter. What matters is the frequency of each event RELATIVE to the frequency of the others. If 3s happen to be LC then most of the 3s are going to 4 which is exactly what you are betting. The beauty is that if 3s are L.C. but start to "catch up" then another event automatically becomes L.C.

As long as you bet LC runs will keep going you can't help but usually be right and you are never found betting against the M.C. so you either win or come as close as possible to it.

[BaCcArAt KiNg]

Hi Sir Ellis! Good day!

I am very delighted that the manual of System 40 has reached its completion. Better late than never.

However, kindly check sir the "wrong" OR count on Page 11 of the manual.

New members might get confused. FYI only.

More power and thank you sir for giving us another POWERFUL TOOL in Beating The Casinos.

BK

Edited September 21, 2010 by BaCcArAt KiNg

[ECD]

Right BK! Somehow all the + signs came out as - signs. I'll get Keith to fix it. Thanks for noticing.