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Hands #49-53 was a run of 5. You went otr on the 4th play of the run (hand #52) since 3s were LC for P. You then went off the run the very next play which is the 5th play of the run (hand #53) which lost, since 4s were MC for P.

What if the run had gone on to say a 9 instead of a 5, wouldn’t you have lost from play 5 of the run to play 9, since you went off the run at play 5?

This is already addressed and I gave my answer in post #72.

Since you track 4s but not 4+s how would you know that 4+s would not be more than 4s?

I just glance back in the shoe. It's extremely easy to spot the 4+'s. Takes only a sec.

Thanks for the questions guys. Now it's back to the bat cave. lol

Seriously, we just wanted to share this with BTC and throw it out for consideration. If it is interesting to you, it's up to you to play a bunch of shoes and do your own testing. Then you can decide for yourself if it's something you want to pursue.

Thanks,

PJ

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hey PJ thanks much for your response.

could you please keep us updated on any new development on this way of playing sys 40 (tracking SAP on P/B separately).

thanks again.

cheers

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On the question of what to make LC at the start of a shoe: Recognize that when I said make 4s L.C. I was speaking of choppy shoes which would have drawn you to straight System 40 in the first place.

A better reply would have been: Go by the OR count.

+ count make 4s LC (chop)

- count make 2s LC (streak)

I think that gives you the best of both worlds.

At a choppy table it is likely you won't see a 4 or more real quick. Meanwhile you CAN'T lose.

At a streaky table you want to get on runs as soon as possible and stay on them Until you lose.

In extreme streak you have the option of flat betting at 2 OTR until the run ends and then go back to 1 for your Opposite bet - particularly if you are seeing long runs.

Also, if you are betting 1,2,1,2 down a run and you happen to lose a 2 at the end of the run, you have the option of going back to a 1 bet. More conservative.

Now, if the shoe is streaky and you started with 2s LC your first job is to confirm that 2s are, in fact LC.

If the shoe is hi in 2s you want to switch to RD 1 and if the shoe is hi in sporatic 1s you want to switch to F2.

We haven't really covered streaky shoes much yet re sys 40 but we will be doing that right here.

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Playing Papa Joe way and if you lose OTR bet and then play opposite and 4's is LC you lose to LC on the other side you now lost 1,2,3,4,5,6 7 bet WHAT YOU YOU DO THIS.

EXAMPLE

BBBPPPPB 3'S ARE lC ON B NOW PLAY OPPOSITE ON B AND 4'S LC ON P

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Personally, I'm finding that especially when 4's are LC, I'm questioning whether it's worth betting opposites more than twice. These are the kind of situations I think we should be trying to avoid. When 4's are LC, we hang in and lose 3 bets in a row betting opposites. Then what I've seen happen many times is that it stops at 4 but you are betting for it to continue. So now you've lost 4 in a row. So it goes no further OTR and you missed the bet coming back to the other side. Now if the LC on the other side is a 4, you're right back into betting in the same situation you just went through. Even if you had a good shoe going, it's now been destroyed. If it was early in the shoe, you're more than likely at your stop loss. However, the first question you might be asking your self is "should I have been betting system 40 in this shoe to begin with." Ellis will tell you to bet S40 in shoes with a + O/R. That's where it will perform the best. Trying to force a choppy system on a streaky shoe does have some risk. This is one of them. I realize you do get streaks during a choppy shoe and vice versa. That's why they call this gambling. Sometimes you just have to lose. But to me, the key is playing the shoe according to what it's giving you. You can't make chicken soup out of chicken crap so don't try to do it. System 40 is not going to be the answer to everything. If the OTR's aren't working in the chop shoes, stop betting on them. Hopefully during the course of the shoe you'll wind up with and LC of 2 let's say so you can get on the run early for a bet or two. When I see 4's as LC, I really don't like that situation and opens the door to just what you were describing. And if you see that the otr's aren't working, don't bet them until the situation corrects itself. One other thing you might consider is cutting back on your progressions. I use a 1,2,2,1,2,3,4. You don't scores the

+20 unit shoes as often as you doing betting the progression you're showing but I'm only looking to take 10 units out of a shoe. If you want to make more money, bet larger units not larger progressions.

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What Jersey said is right on....... it boils down to stay sharp, don't forget common sense while you play.

I have even considered choosing LC between 2's and 3's only. If they are tied for LC go with 2's LC. Then stay OTR until you lose and back to betting opposites.

But you know what? It doesn't matter a bit what system or what rules we are discussing, we will still face losses.There will always be a losing pattern of a losing scenario. Our rules try to miniumize these situations so we win more than we lose.

When we are losing, we hope to be sharp enough to see it before we lose "x" number of bets in a row and STOP BETTING or change the way we are betting until our system regains it's footing.

That part is not mechanical, I guess that just comes with experience.

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PJ.......why not add 1's to the mix. If 1's are LC, then we can go OTR right off the bat.

What Jersey said is right on....... it boils down to stay sharp, don't forget common sense while you play.

I have even considered choosing LC between 2's and 3's only. If they are tied for LC go with 2's LC. Then stay OTR until you lose and back to betting opposites.

But you know what? It doesn't matter a bit what system or what rules we are discussing, we will still face losses.There will always be a losing pattern of a losing scenario. Our rules try to miniumize these situations so we win more than we lose.

When we are losing, we hope to be sharp enough to see it before we lose "x" number of bets in a row and STOP BETTING or change the way we are betting until our system regains it's footing.

That part is not mechanical, I guess that just comes with experience.

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Been there, done that! It's a whole different ballgame. But since System 40 is a chop favorable system I would keep the main "mode" as chop. Of course as Ellis said if the O/R count is minus......

PJ

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Playing Papa Joe way and if you lose OTR bet and then play opposite and 4's is LC you lose to LC on the other side you now lost 1,2,3,4,5,6 7 bet WHAT YOU YOU DO THIS.

EXAMPLE

BBBPPPPB 3'S ARE lC ON B NOW PLAY OPPOSITE ON B AND 4'S LC ON P

What about this: If 3s / 4s are MC on both P & B sides (which indicates streakiness), we stay on otr until 2 losses in a row then switch. That way we cruise thru streak following streak.

But then the new nemesis would be that you lose 2 bets straight on every sporadic 1s.

Whether you want to do this where 3s / 4s are LC on both P & B sides is a toss up.

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Probably if 3's and 4's are MC on both sides you should be getting another mode rather than 40. You probably should be on some streak method like F2 or RD1. Remember, keep an eye out on the O/R count along with the SAP situation.

What about this: If 3s / 4s are MC on both P & B sides (which indicates streakiness), we stay on otr until 2 losses in a row then switch. That way we cruise thru streak following streak.

But then the new nemesis would be that you lose 2 bets straight on every sporadic 1s.

Whether you want to do this where 3s / 4s are LC on both P & B sides is a toss up.

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Probably if 3's and 4's are MC on both sides you should be getting another mode rather than 40. You probably should be on some streak method like F2 or RD1. Remember, keep an eye out on the O/R count along with the SAP situation.

Right Jersey and Probac! Good thinking! About the only problem is when you don't have a clear LC because they are tied or close to it. Then your best move is to split your progs with a blue prog on opposites and a red prog for OTR bets. That way you are giving LC less credibility and keeping your OTR risks down. But you still are not betting against MC so you are protecting yourself from a catastophic loss while giving yourself every chance to win.

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PJ.......why not add 1's to the mix. If 1's are LC, then we can go OTR right off the bat.

If you make 1's LC you are strictly betting Repeats which can be a good idea in a streaky shoe! Essentially you would be playing RD1. So what you are saying is that when 1's are LC it is a good indication to go to RD1. Another good use of SAP.

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Probably if 3's and 4's are MC on both sides you should be getting another mode rather than 40. You probably should be on some streak method like F2 or RD1. Remember, keep an eye out on the O/R count along with the SAP situation.

Of course we know that in a streaky shoe we should be better off playing a streak system. This is a sys 40 thread & we are discussing sys 40. The context in which I made those observations is that if we had started out playing s40 & want to continue with that system when the shoe shows streakiness then he may consider what i have said. If you are talking about switching system midshoe thats a different thing altogether.

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I think at the moment, being system 40 is the hot button, eveyone is trying to make every shoe work with that system. That's just how you're going to get your self in trouble. System 40 can handle small streaks of let's say 3's but if you get a number of them or they are back to back you can get creamed. If the shoe, based on the SAP charts or the O/R charts say it's streaky, by all means use a streak system. I've found myself getting caught up in the hype. You get some people showing shoes that worked ideally for system 40 and then everyone thinks all you have to do is start out with 40, and you will win 20+ units. Instead of putting shoes out here that did perfectly with 40, put some losers out here and I'll guarantee the reason they were lost is because an individual was using a chop system, 40, when they should have been using RD1 or F2 as an example. If you want to play professionally, you've got to work like a professional. I've been making the same mistakes myself so I've learned the hard way. One other thing I'd like to comment on that I think a lot, including myself are guilty of. When you lose two hands in a row, step back and see what's going wrong. Don't keep betting into a mistake. Too many show shoes that just because they ran in to 5 or 6 units, and it worked out, and they wond 20+ units, that this is the way you should play. I think you've got to step back and see if things are changing via the SAP charts, and if necessary wait for things to resume as they were or identify things are changing. But the best thing is when losing, stop what you're doing and observe. Observation doesn't invade your bankroll.

Of course we know that in a streaky shoe we should be better off playing a streak system. This is a sys 40 thread & we are discussing sys 40. The context in which I made those observations is that if we had started out playing s40 & want to continue with that system when the shoe shows streakiness then he may consider what i have said. If you are talking about switching system midshoe thats a different thing altogether.
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I think at the moment, being system 40 is the hot button, eveyone is trying to make every shoe work with that system. That's just how you're going to get your self in trouble.

Jersey,

Very true. Although Sys40 works rather well in a shoe that is chopping itself up, if it starts off P334 it's probably time to think about not modifying Sys40 but using a completely different plan. If you drop Sys40 down from it's base by one bet, it becomes a modded F3. Go up by one extra opp wager and it's F4 or at least a close cousin!

Once you stray from the basic System 40 play, you're moving into more of a streaky system play I believe in which case you can use RD1.

Obviously if the shoe is all 1's and 2's it not a problem. That's what System 40 beats up quite nicely. Throw in a few 3's and things get sticky.

Let's not make basic System 40 a complicated play. It does a very nice job in a choppy shoe. If you're sitting there and the 1's and 2's aren't showing up, get off the table or play the correct system for the shoe! If the SAP count is pointing to streaks, play it! Don't try to force Sys40 to do what it was not designed for.

Actually, if you'll look at BaCcArAt KiNg 's Sys40 ADV, that picks up the streak shoes quite nicely and in real time and should run right back into a chop shoe if it comes back. Almost painless and a lot less paperwork in the process.

MVS (2 cents worth mode and I like Sys40 when it's called for)

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I think at the moment, being system 40 is the hot button, eveyone is trying to make every shoe work with that system.

Well I think we can come pretty close to doing exactly that if we take a broader look at System 40. Our expanded SAP chart together with the OR count tells us what to do in nearly every situation.

We should all know by now what to do when 2s or 3s or 4s are LC.

When 1's are LC or even below normal we need to go to the RD1,2 ; F2,3 streak systems. This is also verified by the minus OR count and will occur about half the time. Recognize that RD1 is 40 in reverse.

Once in streak mode we know that RD1 does not like 1's but does like straight runs following straight runs.

We know that F2 likes all 1's and 3 or mores but does not like 2s.

We know F3 likes 1s and 2s and 4 or mores but not 3's.

40 with 2's culprit likes both straight and ZZ runs but not the TTs.

When we have no strong LC, ie., the events are tied or close to it, 40 net bet or split progs is indicated.

Every configuration of system 40 has one identifiable thing that excludes it.

That pretty much covers the water front. One form or another of System 40 corresponds best to every possible shoe type.

I think what we need to do is work on our shoe type signals. Exactly how we know which Sys. 40 configuation is best for the shoe/table at hand and exactly what constitutes that a switch is req'd.

But all of the systems I mentioned here are configurations of System 40. I am convinced that we can stay within the System 40 family and beat nearly every shoe they throw at us through educated variation selection W/O going to any systems outside the System 40 family.

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But there is one thing that keeps nagging at me. Home practice is a good thing but it developes one really bad habit. It makes you look at EVERY shoe as if it were a completely independent situation. It takes every shoe out of context of the casino environment. It relieves you of your strongest weapon - To know what to play BEFORE you sit down.

Like I mentioned before, in a casino, I end up actually switching systems maybe one shoe in 10. But at home, every new shoe is likely to need a new system because you are playing a pile of disjointed shoes out of context of the casino. It is a totally different challenge than playing a live casino and it develops bad habits.

I'm not saying you shouldn't practice. What I'm saying is don't give up your strongest weapon when you finally get to a REAL casino just because that weapon was not available on your kitchen table. It is two entirely different worlds.

What's more, in a live casino as soon as the whole table is winning, I KNOW that the shoe type I'm seeing is about to change drastically. Casinos are smart. Your kitchen table isn't.

I'm thinking we need a lot more discussion of the actual casino environment vs home practice. There is a huge difference. THEY are trying to beat you. Your kitchen table or your computer ISN'T.

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I'm leaving early this morning for an extended trip. We plan to meet some important horse people at a race in Indiana Sat. Then we'll head for PA to play that new Hollywood casino with Keith. No, I'm not getting into horse racing but my son is a hadicapper. That's what happens when you raise kids in Saratoga. I should be at Hollywood by Monday if anyone is in that area. I should be back sometime Thursday, God willing. Meanwhile, I think I've given you much to think about and discuss.

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jerseyslim

Had an enjoyable over night trip to the casino from Thursday night into Friday. I took my wife along and had a very enjoyable trip. I wound up playing two shoes late Thursday night into Friday morning and then played two more shoes late Friday morning and then early afternoon. I used PJ's dual SAP charts and basically let that along with the O/R count direct to me to whatever system 40 mode it dictated. I know I may be complicating things a bit, but along with the dual SAP charts from PJ, I keep a combined total SAP also running with the divided count. This really keeps me in tune with what's going on with each side as well as the total picture. The first shoe I played the O/R count was indicating a chop shoe early on. The SAP count was shoeing 1's high on both sides so this was obviously a system 40 start using chop. Later in the shoe the count turned around on the O/R and I was getting multiples in a row so I shifted to RDI at the 47th hand in the shoe. I should have started it sooner. Now keep in mind I'm playing a very conservative 1,2,2,1,2,3,4 progression with a M2. First shoe had a high of 25, low of -1, and finished at +18. I got out at +20. The second shoe started at about 1:30am and I was getting tired. The shoe started with an O/R count indicating chop but the 3's were MC. So I wanted something for chop but that could accomodate the 3's so I went with OTB4L. Now this mode does enable you to go on streaks once you reach the LC which I missed the boat on. I could have gone OTR two different times but didn't at a cost. I went as high as 6 and as low as -5. Finished and when I quit I was at +3. This was hand 53 and with my mistakes and bad judgement decided it was time to go to bed. The first shoe of the next day was once again showing a chop system 40 start. The player side of my SAP chart was showing 1's and 2's. About hand 22 the Banker side was starting to show 2's, 3's, and some 4's. Even though the O/R was still showing the shoe to be an overall chop shoe, the Banker side was actually showing streak. However, I chose to stick with the over all chop mode using sys40 which I'm sure cost me some. I'm going to keep watching this, but you might find it's best playing each side according to it's own SAP count. It would have helped here even though the overall SAP was showing chop. At hand 46 I was up 10 units and thought about getting out but I didn't. So I contined on and in hand 61 I was at +20 and quit. I continued marking my scorecard until the end. Wound up H 20 (which is where I quit) low -1, and F at +16. For my final shoe I started RD1. I had P with a streak of 4 at the beginning then banker with a 1. Back to player with a 3 so I decided to use RD!. I only played to hand 27 but every time it went to B, it only was a 1's. There were only tow more multiples on the player side but with the ZZ's, even though in an RD1 mode, I was able to hop on the runs. Once I get the confirmed 1 by itself, I choose to go for the zz's rather than betting the standard RD1 which has you looking for the multples at some time during the run. The shoe ended for me with a ZZ pattern of 11. So this shoe ended for me at hand 27 with another 10 units. So for the trip it was 4 shoes for 53 units. So for being so long winded with this but I wanted to let you know how I'm watching the SAP charts, both dual and combined along with the O/R count which should help confirm to you what mode along with the SAP chart you should be going with.

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Jim Files
Had an enjoyable over night trip to the casino from Thursday night into Friday. I took my wife along and had a very enjoyable trip. I wound up playing two shoes late Thursday night into Friday morning and then played two more shoes late Friday morning and then early afternoon. I used PJ's dual SAP charts and basically let that along with the O/R count direct to me to whatever system 40 mode it dictated. I know I may be complicating things a bit, but along with the dual SAP charts from PJ, I keep a combined total SAP also running with the divided count. This really keeps me in tune with what's going on with each side as well as the total picture. The first shoe I played the O/R count was indicating a chop shoe early on. The SAP count was shoeing 1's high on both sides so this was obviously a system 40 start using chop. Later in the shoe the count turned around on the O/R and I was getting multiples in a row so I shifted to RDI at the 47th hand in the shoe. I should have started it sooner. Now keep in mind I'm playing a very conservative 1,2,2,1,2,3,4 progression with a M2. First shoe had a high of 25, low of -1, and finished at +18. I got out at +20. The second shoe started at about 1:30am and I was getting tired. The shoe started with an O/R count indicating chop but the 3's were MC. So I wanted something for chop but that could accomodate the 3's so I went with OTB4L. Now this mode does enable you to go on streaks once you reach the LC which I missed the boat on. I could have gone OTR two different times but didn't at a cost. I went as high as 6 and as low as -5. Finished and when I quit I was at +3. This was hand 53 and with my mistakes and bad judgement decided it was time to go to bed. The first shoe of the next day was once again showing a chop system 40 start. The player side of my SAP chart was showing 1's and 2's. About hand 22 the Banker side was starting to show 2's, 3's, and some 4's. Even though the O/R was still showing the shoe to be an overall chop shoe, the Banker side was actually showing streak. However, I chose to stick with the over all chop mode using sys40 which I'm sure cost me some. I'm going to keep watching this, but you might find it's best playing each side according to it's own SAP count. It would have helped here even though the overall SAP was showing chop. At hand 46 I was up 10 units and thought about getting out but I didn't. So I contined on and in hand 61 I was at +20 and quit. I continued marking my scorecard until the end. Wound up H 20 (which is where I quit) low -1, and F at +16. For my final shoe I started RD1. I had P with a streak of 4 at the beginning then banker with a 1. Back to player with a 3 so I decided to use RD!. I only played to hand 27 but every time it went to B, it only was a 1's. There were only tow more multiples on the player side but with the ZZ's, even though in an RD1 mode, I was able to hop on the runs. Once I get the confirmed 1 by itself, I choose to go for the zz's rather than betting the standard RD1 which has you looking for the multples at some time during the run. The shoe ended for me with a ZZ pattern of 11. So this shoe ended for me at hand 27 with another 10 units. So for the trip it was 4 shoes for 53 units. So for being so long winded with this but I wanted to let you know how I'm watching the SAP charts, both dual and combined along with the O/R count which should help confirm to you what mode along with the SAP chart you should be going with.

Nice Post and Congratulations on your successful trip! Please don't worry about being long winded, a lot of the time people cut their posts short on here and sometimes it is hard to understand what they mean. I enjoyed reading of your success and your explanations, keep up the good work. If you kept your scorecards, I'm sure a lot of us would like to see them posted here, maybe even with a play by play of what you were seeing and your thinking at the time... That's quite a bit of trouble for you to go to though but thanks for the explanation.

Jim

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I have a question

When playing system 40 are playing are we playing with a single SAP chart or Papa Joe double SAP chart?

Ellis posting from Keith's house. Yes Res, I think we should try to progress to the double side chart and keep tabs on performance to be sure it is better in all cases. Likewise with a count of single 1's vs double and triple 1's to tell us when to play RD1 vs RD2 or F2,3.

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Hi Ellis, I do have 2 questions to ask you as follows;

1. Could you please tell me the most accurate (prefer 100%, if possible) on an OR count (-# or +#) to determine whether the shoe is Chop, Streak or Neutral?

2. How many hands do we have to count on "new shoe", in order to get an LC, before we can start playing with that certain shoe?

Thank you,

Tim.

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Hi Ellis, I do have 2 questions to ask you as follows;

1. Could you please tell me the most accurate (prefer 100%, if possible) on an OR count (-# or +#) to determine whether the shoe is Chop, Streak or Neutral?

The avg count spread overall is about 8. We don't have to have all +'s or all -'s to make a decision. We would like a shoe to FAVOR = or FAVOR -. That is why, if possible, we pick the choppiest or the streakiest table in tha casino.

For Neutral (OTB4L or 40N) the more the count crosses 0 the better and the lower both count numbers (+ -) stay, the better.

2. How many hands do we have to count on "new shoe", in order to get an LC, before we can start playing with that certain shoe?

Don't do it that way. You decided on 40 because the table or shoe is favoring chop. In such shoes start with 4s LC. That way you can start on play 2. (See the ten Hollywood games posted). Usually in Choppy shoes you won't see a 4 for a while. Meanwhile you win every event. Usually by the time there is a 4 you have amassed enough profit to contend with it. Now, Once there is a 4, your LC is likely to change but not always.

Thank you,

Tim.

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