System 40 Advanced

[jerseyslim]

Took an over night trip to Mt. Airy last night and today (Wednesday). First bad trip since I've been going. My problem was not with the shoes, but really myself. I found myself over doing it with changing modes while in a shoe, trying to pick up on the latest switch and all I was doing it creating doubt in myself, as to whether I needed to change modes and this caused me to skip hands, that were winner only to jump on the losers and this forced the progressions to get higher. It was like a dog chasing it's tail. I've got to settle down more into a mode, which fits the overall shoe and not change so much. Learned an expensive lesson today. Gotta do much better. Wound up -20 units on five shoes. Not good. A lot could have been handled by system 40 all by itself.

[kachatz1]

JerseySlim-

Could not agree more with you...it is really just a personal preference, but i like to stay with one style of play for just about everything, seems way more relaxing than trying to incorporate a bunch of different systems...then it is just discipline to pay close attention to your shoe and session unit win and/or unit stop loss goals...definitely will win more than you lose...Now and then you go home having lost a few $$, but over a week, a month, a year you will find yourself way ahead of the game. And the more shoes you play and observe, it makes a huge difference in your confidence, which also translates to winning more $$, and cutting your losses short...

[ECD]

I also agree with this. In fact, I very, very seldom switch systems in a casino. And when I do find myself having to switch I always feel that it was because I failed to conduct a proper table selection search in the first place. My best trips are the trips when I didn't switch after starting a session.

The last seven plays MIGHT steer you in the right direction on some days but just as often they cause you to jump on a short term bias just in time for it to end.

Look at it this way: Our first duty was to find the MOST biased table in the casino. Assuming we did that correctly, if we now switch, we are defying the main bias of the table. I don't think there is a big future in that. I look at a System switch as a failure of sorts rather than a wise move.

I've been tied up on the launching of the new 0 Prox BJ manual which is going quite well BTW. But this has given me time to reflect on our direction in Baccarat. Jersey is right about the ADN system. It is not behaving as I had hoped. We need to either redesign it from the ground up or abandon it.

Meanwhile, System 40 keeps proving itself and has been doing so for many years. We have a manual that brings System 40 to a winning level. But it doesn't go as far as it could go.

A large group of our best players splintered off when they realized we became infatuated with Maverick. They saw all that switching and high bets that defied the main bias as a giant step in the wrong direction. Meanwhile they have been taking System 40 to new heights. I agree with that direction.

I am convinced that System 40 is the strongest system in Baccarat. As is, it beats every event in the shoe except the L.C. least common event. That is already a winning approach. But, is the Bank side L.C. always the same as the P side L.C. Nope. why not look at both?

When System 40 is weak (super streak) its opposite MUST be strong. What is its opposite? Well its RD1 except that the RD1 rules, as written, ignore the opposite L.C. We need to fix that and its easy to fix.

Jersey's answer was F2. Fine but what if the shoe is high in twos? F2 becomes a disaster looking for a place to happen. We can do better than that.

System 40 covers everything that can happen in a + OR count shoe. But it gets fuzzy in a - OR count shoe. That is easy to fix once the problem is identified and I think we have it correctly identified.

I vote we go back to our best system, System 40, and finish what we started. What do you guys think?

[jerseyslim]

I have been saying to some individuals here that if I was to play any one system, it would be sys40. It could use a little fine tuning but I think you've got a good structure to work with.

I also agree with this. In fact, I very, very seldom switch systems in a casino. And when I do find myself having to switch I always feel that it was because I failed to conduct a proper table selection search in the first place. My best trips are the trips when I didn't switch after starting a session.

The last seven plays MIGHT steer you in the right direction on some days but just as often they cause you to jump on a short term bias just in time for it to end.

Look at it this way: Our first duty was to find the MOST biased table in the casino. Assuming we did that correctly, if we now switch, we are defying the main bias of the table. I don't think there is a big future in that. I look at a System switch as a failure of sorts rather than a wise move.

I've been tied up on the launching of the new 0 Prox BJ manual which is going quite well BTW. But this has given me time to reflect on our direction in Baccarat. Jersey is right about the ADN system. It is not behaving as I had hoped. We need to either redesign it from the ground up or abandon it.

Meanwhile, System 40 keeps proving itself and has been doing so for many years. We have a manual that brings System 40 to a winning level. But it doesn't go as far as it could go.

A large group of our best players splintered off when they realized we became infatuated with Maverick. They saw all that switching and high bets that defied the main bias as a giant step in the wrong direction. Meanwhile they have been taking System 40 to new heights. I agree with that direction.

I am convinced that System 40 is the strongest system in Baccarat. As is, it beats every event in the shoe except the L.C. least common event. That is already a winning approach. But, is the Bank side L.C. always the same as the P side L.C. Nope. why not look at both?

When System 40 is weak (super streak) its opposite MUST be strong. What is its opposite? Well its RD1 except that the RD1 rules, as written, ignore the opposite L.C. We need to fix that and its easy to fix.

Jersey's answer was F2. Fine but what if the shoe is high in twos? F2 becomes a disaster looking for a place to happen. We can do better than that.

System 40 covers everything that can happen in a + OR count shoe. But it gets fuzzy in a - OR count shoe. That is easy to fix once the problem is identified and I think we have it correctly identified.

I vote we go back to our best system, System 40, and finish what we started. What do you guys think?

[jerseyslim]

Ellis......If I said that F2 was the answer in streaks I only meant when 2's weren't running high. If you have steak, then to use RD1 except where 1's were high. Naturally there is a devil's advocate to every system but we can't throw something out because it loses to something. They all lose to something. Just don't play it if SAP or whatever says not to.

[Fedda]

That's a good idea Ellis! I have waited for this to come, and maybe we could add something to the MM-strategy as well?

[waminc]

Hi Ellis,

I've been scoring the modified SAP scores(2,3,4) with the actual number of events in the bottom corners of the score box. It becomes very easy to do and gives you valuable information as to B or P bias of different run lengths. With S40, it seems to be very effective when you see, for instance the 2s might have a count of 8 with 3 Bs and 1 P and the 3s have a count of 12 with 0 Bs and 3 Ps. Betting that a second B will chop to P but a second P will follow to a third gives S40 a stronger advantage. In the 10 or so shoes I scored with this I had one shoe that lost 2-3 units and the other 9 won from 10-30 units. The 2 bigger scores were with shoes that had a strong bias on the "SAP" count and gave very good results. Something to look into.

Bill

[jerseyslim]

Bill.........how have you been recording these extra SAP scores on your sheets. Possibly you can scan one in or give an explanation as to how you are entering them on your sheet.

[ECD]

I am convinced that System 40 is the strongest system in Baccarat. As is, it beats every event in the shoe except the L.C. least common event. That is already a winning approach. But, is the Bank side L.C. always the same as the P side L.C. Nope. why not look at both?

This is one of the things we talked about on the phone several days ago, and it is one of the projects we have been doing reasearch on in my private group. Andrea first proposed tracking the events on the player and banker side seperatly. We have been doing this for months. LC (and MC) events become much more obvious and exploitable that way. Andrea gets the credit for this breakthrough.

For example if 2's are LC on the player side you could easily have a situation where they are not LC (they could even be MC) on the banker side. So if you are on the player side and a 2 comes along you could safely bet for a repeat. You would not do this on the bank side because 2's are NOT LC on that side.

This could easily be applied to selecting LC in System 40. You could actually have a different LC for each side and only bet OTR for straight runs based on the LC event for the side you would be betting.

Hope this is helpful,

PJ

Edited September 23, 2010 by ECD

[Sinatra1]

Ellis,

I agree. System 40 is a great system. That being said we haven't really put a lot of time into improving it even more. Although sometimes that leads to screwing up a good system rather than improving it. Since it wins all 1's and 2's and wins either 3's or 4's, I think a conservative money management approach when we get to 3's or 4's or more will help us stay in the game and get past the rough spots and back to the parts of the shoe that we win.

[jerseyslim]

PJ.........is this then a new scorecard we must use. I don't think there's enought space in the SAP boxes to record all this as far as I can see. If you could scan what type of chart you are using, it would be most helpful............thnx..Jersey

[ECD]

Hi Jersey,

OK, but this is top secret stuff I'm posting. Don't spread it around, or I'll have to send the boys to play you a visit. lol!

Just track the events seperately, it's amazing what you can see.

Click the link to download the card.

http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/r-MC6d8xiS4lbN2bFK1z7w?feat=directlink

Edited September 23, 2010 by ECD

[jerseyslim]

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. They're all listening. LOL

[jerseyslim]

Well I'll be damned if that's not nice. I'll be going tomorrow to the casino so I'll give this all a whirl in real time. Thanks again. This will be our secret. LOL

Hi Jersey,

OK, but this is top secret stuff I'm posting. Don't spread it around, or I'll have to send the boys to play you a visit. lol!

Just track the events seperately, it's amazing what you can see.

[jerseyslim]

Just one question. If this is system 40, what do you mean by "mode."

Well I'll be damned if that's not nice. I'll be going tomorrow to the casino so I'll give this all a whirl in real time. Thanks again. This will be our secret. LOL

[ECD]

For Sys 40 you can just ignore the Mode column, or you could mark O for when you are betting for an opposite and R when you are OTR.

The Mode column is for tracking different things depending what system you are testing. It has multiple uses.

PJ

[MVSeahog]

Meanwhile, System 40 keeps proving itself and has been doing so for many years.

It's been proving itself for me, at least when I see the really choppy tables. It does take a lot of the "work" out of playing and that's using just plain Sys40 and watching for 3's.

When System 40 is weak (super streak) its opposite MUST be strong. What is its opposite?

You know, even when the shoe does get streaky, it just lowers the totals for winning, it's not generally losing. It's just not winning as much as we're used to. As we all know, only 3's, 6's, 9's and multiples of 3 are the ONLY losing wagers under standard System 40. I can live with that.

I vote we go back to our best system, System 40, and finish what we started. What do you guys think?

I still believe that System 40 can be made to work with pretty much any shoe type. The crisis and probably ONLY decision to make, and it's been brought up before, is what to make for the culprit? The answer generally comes down to either 3's or 4's. Sort that out and we're back in the World Class of Baccarat for sure.

It's simple to play, requires minimal recordkeeping (or none if you can scan the shoe with your eyes) and does not require a major progression to show a profit.

I've been using it under quick "hit and run" tactics when I don't really have the time for a full shoe and can come in at any time for a quick +2 or +3. That's really the beauty of it all.

Now, if we concentrate on Sys40, find the simplest way to identify what's hurting us in the shoe and that should be obvious. If you get a second 3 in the first column, we're on the wrong side!

So, should we move from there forward or is there a better way to determine what's hurting us earlier in the shoe? We're all reasonably good with a SAP counts, O/R's and the like.

Is there some key that we may have overlooked for such a simple concept as System 40?

MVS

Edited September 23, 2010 by MVSeahog

[MVSeahog]

Guys,

I kind of made a command decision and moved this thread here, into the System 40 area for members.

Such abuse of power is generally reserved for heads of state, visiting Kings and enlightened despots.

I'll just tag along at the end.

I figured it was about to get pretty serious with regards to System 40 and the other area is still open to the public.

MVS

[ECD]

MVS, thanks for moving this thread out of public view. Can you change the title of it to System 40 Advanced?

[waminc]

Jersey and all,

Sorry for taking too long to respond. I've placed a link to 2 shoes that I posted. I just can't figure out how to paste a pic into this thread. Both shoes have bets placed by the B or P bias within the count. PJ has already given you his score card. I just put both B and P scores in the bottom of the appropriate number. I find it easier for me to look at one box to see both scores rather than having them spread across the sheet.

Bill

edit : having too many problems with the link.

Edited September 25, 2010 by waminc

[jerseyslim]

Well I fell off the horse and figured today it's time to get back on. With PJ's magic formula score sheet, which no one is supposed to know about, I was able to go back and have a successful day at the casino once again. I took my wife so I let her go to the spa for a massage and I massaged the chips at the baccarat table. I look to play two shoes, and come out with 20 units or as much as possible less than that. Once I'm +10 I'm looking to get out. You will notice on my very first shoe, using system 40, by hand 23 I had my +10 and thankfully stopped. I dropped down from there but had I stayed in I had another shot at hand 56 to get out once again but I was already long gone. The bad part is if I played this shoe until the end, I would have wound up losing 4 units. Guess a bird in the hand (+10 units) is worth two in the bush. Hey what is this a Geico commercial. I'm waiting 8-10 hand so that I don't jump on a long streak from the very beginning which I would have on shoe #1 with a five in a row. Then as you can see it chopped around for some time allowing me to be up +10 at hand 23. I was using a conservative progression of 1,2,2,1,2,3,4. Good thing for that because I had a hell of a string of losses starting at hand 57. Keep in mind, at that point it was on paper. Don't know what you can do about that. Does anyone, possibly Ellis, have an answer for that other than riding it out. In the second shoe, I didn't start betting until hand 10, again looking not to get in on any streaks if I could help it and once again you had a four in a row starting at hand 4. Not a real long one but don't like getting in one of those if I can help it. Notice my SAP count on both sides. Both were basically going for 2's and then crossing over. So I decided to take advantage of that on some bets and only make a paper bet after the 1 on each side and then actually betting it would stop at 2 which it did at hands 17 and 20. I ran up an 8 unit profit at that time and thought to myself, this can be a good day if I stop right now. With a profit of 18 green units, it was nice, my wife was there so we went to eat on the house, had a glass of wine, and called it a day. I like PJ's score card, shhhhhhhhh, but don't tell him that or he'll want some of the profits. I'll attempt to attach the two shoes to this post if I can. Other wise the second will be on the next post. I do hate those streaks though and don't know at this point what you can do about it. Oh, and those numbers to extreme right outside the S column, are my O/R count. A minus count to me is chop.

Edited September 24, 2010 by jerseyslim

[MVSeahog]

Jersey,

Thanks for posting those up. I didn't play today so I can use those as my shoes for tonight and just call it a practice session.

I run every shoe posted, mainly for practice and to see if I'm on the same page as everybody else in whatever system play we're running.

MVS

[jerseyslim]

Sorry I didn't finish or even nearly finish the second shoe but I had the wife with me and I was up over $400 so I figured why hang around.

Jersey,

Thanks for posting those up. I didn't play today so I can use those as my shoes for tonight and just call it a practice session.

I run every shoe posted, mainly for practice and to see if I'm on the same page as everybody else in whatever system play we're running.

MVS

[waminc]

Jersey,

I ran your 1st shoe and had a high of +23, low -1, end +22 at hand #57. I'll see if I can get some help on posting shoes and let you see how I scored it. I'm not sure that link to picasa web is a good way to go.

Bill

[jerseyslim]

It's probably the progressions you used. If you used a U1D2M2 on a decent shoe you will score much higher than I did with a 1,2,2,1,2,3,4. I wanted to stretch this out as far as I could. As I said , I had a 7 in a row loss at hands 57-63. It would also depend whether you used a different SAP B and P as I did. Sometimes you're the fly and some times your the windshield. Also where you started betting will also produce different results. Sometimes a slight difference can me a big difference later on. The progressions will make a huge difference. I'm trying to avoid disaster so when a tough shoe comes along, you'll get pretty beat up while I'll have a much smaller loss and still be able to go on to the next one. I ideally only want +10 units per shoe. Don't need the added risk of going for +20. But that's just me. The progressions are real easy when doing a shoe at home. In the casino it's whole different world. Look forward to seeing you shoe.

Edited September 25, 2010 by jerseyslim