System 40 Advanced

[wolfat]

Hi Ellis, I do have 2 questions to ask you as follows;

1. Could you please tell me the most accurate (prefer 100%, if possible) on an OR count (-# or +#) to determine whether the shoe is Chop, Streak or Neutral?

2. How many hands do we have to count on "new shoe", in order to get an LC, before we can start playing with that certain shoe?

Hi Tim,

I try to answer you from my long experience with SAP charting.

Obviously doesn't exist a definite answer and usually this require a little judgment from you but you can look at some indicators that can help.

I must say that more infos you have more accurate is your opinion on that shoe, also called table selection when you look for a suitable table.

I'm used to divide the shoe in sections of 4 EVENTS tracking a line below, in this 4 events you should see, on avg. 2 1s, 1 2s, 1 3s. When 1s are BELOW avg. this shoe probably is going to be streaky; in general when some kind of events are below avg this influence the count and determine what kind of shoe you're seeing.

In your scorecard you must look at the column of avg, this gives you some useful infos; generally after 8 events you should have a good picture of how the shoe's going: are 1s at avg? or more than normal? the shoe is choppy. 3s and 4s are high? probably the shoe's streaky. The events tend to stay tied? probably this is a neutral shoe. I suggest you to start looking at min. 8 events before starting, when you'll be more experienced you can decide to start before, anyway more infos you have, more accurate is your judgment.

Hope that this help you.

andrea

Edited October 10, 2010 by MVSeahog
Fixed quote code

[punvit]

Thank you for your advised. From your long experience with SAP charting. So, we cannot depend on the SAP chart to decide what to do next then? It can only help, and you have to use your own judement to decide what is going on anyway?

[punvit]

This post has been cancelled.

Edited October 11, 2010 by punvit

[punvit]

Hi Ellis,

- Don't do it that way. You decided on 40 because the table or shoe is favoring chop. In such shoes start with 4s LC. That way you can start on play 2. (See the ten Hollywood games posted). Usually in Choppy shoes you won't see a 4 for a while. Meanwhile you win every event. Usually by the time there is a 4 you have amassed enough profit to contend with it. Now, Once there is a 4, your LC is likely to change but not always.

1. Okay, just to make it easier on my part, I will only looking for choppy shoes to play with System 40. I will set 4s as a default LC. And for at least, how many hands I have to play to see either 3s or 4s are happens more or less, so I can decide to use either 3s or 4s as an LC in the future?

2. If I do not use SAP to get an LC, but instead, set 4s as a default LC. What is the difference in accuracy by percentage, between using SAP and set 4s as default LC? The reason I want to know and do it this way, because I live in Las Vegas and always play at casinos. If I do it this way, it can save a lot of time when I' m at a table. Please let me know if you have any tip or any suggestion to make a short cut for System 40.

Thank you.

Edited October 11, 2010 by punvit

[wolfat]

Thank you for your advised. From your long experience with SAP charting. So, we cannot depend on the SAP chart to decide what to do next then? It can only help, and you have to use your own judement to decide what is going on anyway?

Hi Tim, sorry but your question isn't clear for me...

anyway I believe that a shoe is a closed circle and everyone is different from the previous; sometimes it happens that a certain pattern is missing for a long period but probably this is due to a kind of shuffling. I'm used to play in Europe and here generally we're used to hand shuffling. This means that, when a kind of event is strongly missing in a shoe, I can reasonably expect it in the next one to recover its avg., I noticed this many times.

What you can do is to check indicators and let them drive you.

- are 1s low or high? how they appears, in bunches or singles?

- are 3s or 4s above avg? how they appear, group by group or with 1s between?

watch carefully your scorecard and you'll get a lot of infos to deploy in your play.

andrea

[jerseyslim]

Ellis..........here's an example of a shoe that starts out perfectly for system 40 chop, with the O/R count and the 1's above normal. Obviously, you can see from the shoe as it's posted, that this shoe turns and requires an adjustment. Of course when you're sitting down doing this shoe you don't know for sure when things have turned, but tell me at what hand do you finally say this is no longer a chop situation, and requires you to change your mode. O/R count by itself doesn't change your mode becasue it stays positive for most of the shoe which would be too late to make any changes. So here's the shoe, give us some insight as to when you must change what you're doing as well as why.

B1311122111141

P3241231211

B332411114

B231312

This shoe is fresh off Bet Phoenix.

[punvit]

Hi Tim, sorry but your question isn't clear for me...

anyway I believe that a shoe is a closed circle and everyone is different from the previous; sometimes it happens that a certain pattern is missing for a long period but probably this is due to a kind of shuffling. I'm used to play in Europe and here generally we're used to hand shuffling. This means that, when a kind of event is strongly missing in a shoe, I can reasonably expect it in the next one to recover its avg., I noticed this many times.

What you can do is to check indicators and let them drive you.

- are 1s low or high? how they appears, in bunches or singles?

- are 3s or 4s above avg? how they appear, group by group or with 1s between?

watch carefully your scorecard and you'll get a lot of infos to deploy in your play.

andrea

Thank you andrea. And also, the casinos and the tables I always go play at are hand shuffled too.

[punvit]

Is anyone can tell me, where is the "Advanced" System 40 at?

[MrEvo]

First I would like to say that I am sorry that I posted my questions in the wrong spot . I thought that system 40 and advaced system 40 were to diffrent systems

I have played other systems that were somewhat close to this system traked with the neg and pos like 40 does and I had seen the U1 D2 M2 progression before

Here is my next round of questions If I understand We will always start off a shoe with N40 (unless you had been tracking the shoe before and have a count that tells you other wise) and that is very similar to OR, net betting Opposites vs Repeats, except for you OTR bets.

Then when we get OR counts that go beyond + or - 8 we call “super strea (-) or super chop (+). Then we stop net betting and use

Streak

We play 4.2 - 2s are culprit.

Chop

We play 4.3 if 3s are LC or 44 if 4s are LC.

depending if we had a +or -8 IF I have all of this down if your count goes to lets say -10 then dips back under 8 would you go back to N40?

Edited October 12, 2010 by MrEvo

[wolfat]

Thank you andrea. And also, the casinos and the tables I always go play at are hand shuffled too.

Hi Tim,

where are in LV hand shuffled tables?

However, this is a good thing for you; start to notice that, when a kind of event is strongly missing, I mean much less than half average, in the next 2 shoes be ready to assist a recovering of its avg. of this event. Strong action, strong reaction.

andrea

[punvit]

Thank you.

[ECD]

Ellis..........here's an example of a shoe that starts out perfectly for system 40 chop, with the O/R count and the 1's above normal. Obviously, you can see from the shoe as it's posted, that this shoe turns and requires an adjustment. Of course when you're sitting down doing this shoe you don't know for sure when things have turned, but tell me at what hand do you finally say this is no longer a chop situation, and requires you to change your mode. O/R count by itself doesn't change your mode becasue it stays positive for most of the shoe which would be too late to make any changes. So here's the shoe, give us some insight as to when you must change what you're doing as well as why.

B1311122111141

P3241231211

B332411114

B231312

This shoe is fresh off Bet Phoenix.

Jersey, you are right! This is an extremely elusive shoe! The OR count crosses 0 several times and ends up -1 at the end of the shoe but just as you say, it mostly favors + .

40N, however, is ruled out by the very early 5 ZZ followed by a 6 ZZ already in the first col.

If you play 40, you have one of those rarest of shoes where your only choice is to make 5s LC. Keith and I had just discussed this rare situation last night. 5s L.C is VERY unstable. I tried 40 and did not bet upon the first 4 and waited to see what it would do. It stayed 4 so I made 5's LC - not good but really your only choice if you stick with 40.

If you base at 1 and play U1D2 M2 you score +11 at the second to the last play. If you don't play M2 you score +13 at that same play. Basing at 3 works OK and you hit 24 in col 1 - back down, then hit 20 again at play 40 where you would surely quit. But there is a much better but elusive choice.

Several things point at F2 particularly if you make that rule I was talking about the other day. "If you change sides and lose your first bet, change right back":

You are seeing ZZ runs right off and F2 loves ZZ runs.

Lots of sporadic 1s and F2 loves those.

Runs following runs both straight and ZZ and F2 loves those.

2s are relatively low at 5 vs a norm of 9 if you don't count the last play of the shoe. F2 loves low 2s.

The shoe is very strong sided and F2 loves that.

So I tried F2 basing at 3.

Guess what! +56 !

But to answer your question directly: If I was playing 40 I think I would react to the 2nd 4 in a row so early in the shoe esp with high ZZ runs already. This is a shoe where you REALLY need to use your powers of observation to come up with F2 because your OR count is virtually misleading. F2 does get to a single 7 bet at play 14 but that is not so bad when you are basing at 3. But, as you say, 40 was still doing fine at that point so you wouldn't have started F2 yet anyway. But if you started F2 at the 2nd 4 in a row, you breeze right through the rest of the shoe W/O incident.

Jersey, this is an elusive shoe but I think it clearly demonstrates my contention that EVERY shoe has a system that beats it. Our job is to identify that system. Usually that's easy, but not so easy in this case.

Edited October 12, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

BTW Jersey, I'm trying to keep OTB4L out from under the Advanced 40 umbrella to keep A40 as simple as possible. But if you notice your OR count points somewhat at OTB4L, if you base at 3 and simply go OTR after 3 losses, You score +33. Not bad at all but not nearly as good as +56. Might give you an idea WHY I'm trying to keep OTB4L on the shelf.

[res]

punvit

I notice that you are thanking someone for answering your question, "where is system 40 advanced". I do not see where you received an answer. I too would like to know where are the rules for system 40 advanced? Do we have a manual for system 40 advanced?

res

[jerseyslim]

Ellis.....thanks for the great analysis.

[punvit]

{Hi Tim,

where are in LV hand shuffled tables?

However, this is a good thing for you; start to notice that, when a kind of event is strongly missing, I mean much less than half average, in the next 2 shoes be ready to assist a recovering of its avg. of this event. Strong action, strong reaction.

andrea}

I did say thank you to the replied above from andrea. But, not about System 40 Advanced. Ellis is the only one who knows and I am waiting for the answer from him.

Edited October 13, 2010 by punvit

[Norm A]

Thank you andrea. And also, the casinos and the tables I always go play at are hand shuffled too.

Hi Tim

What casinos in LV have hand shuffled shoes ??

Thanks Norm

[Audionut]

Check out post 6 for sys 40 advanced pdf

[johnnycs1]

Lots of info on Sys 40 @

"4s Manual By Ellis "

johnny

[punvit]

Lots of info on Sys 40 @

"4s Manual By Ellis "

johnny

Thank you.

Edited October 13, 2010 by punvit

[punvit]

Check out post 6 for sys 40 advanced pdf

Thank you.

[ECD]

punvit

I notice that you are thanking someone for answering your question, "where is system 40 advanced". I do not see where you received an answer. I too would like to know where are the rules for system 40 advanced? Do we have a manual for system 40 advanced?

res

Not in one place Ron. That is what we were just talking about under logistics. Right now you need to look at several different threads esp. if you don't already know the systems. The System 40 Advanced umbrella includes 40, RD1,2, F2,3 and 40N. The 11 Hollywood games were played 40 Advanced. But we did not need 40N for those particular shoes. As I said before we need to reoganize this into a system 40 A Manual so we have everything in one place. This would include the rules for all 4 systems, System Seletion, Betting strategy, and Questions and discussion. As I said before I think we should drop all other approaches because System 40 Advanced is head and shoulders above all other approaches. All of the component systems are simple , straight foward, and easy to learn. I think a player thus equipped and well practiced would be immune from losing sessions. I can't impress on you guys enough how easy it was to annihilate Hollywood strictly sticking to the Sys 40 Advanced concept.

I think we were lucky to screw up those two shoes at -1 and -5. Otherwise we might have found ourselves barred.

And from a teaching perspective it makes it far easier to stick to the Advanced umbrella.

From a learning perspective it is far easier to become proficient at 4 systems than 20 systems. And 40 Advanced is all inclusive. I haven't seen a single shoe yet that can't be beat by 40 Advanced in one form or another.

I think, as in BJ, we will end up needing a thread devoted to how to keep from getting barred.

[kachatz1]

I am all for Ellis' idea of putting Sys40 Advanced in a "manual" for all to see/discuss/play/share results.

I would also suggest a one page "cheat sheet" that summarizes the start/stop/bet this way/bet that way "rules"

Most of us can only deal with a one page "system", and this we can write most of it in code right on our casino-provided "scorecard"...using the casino-provided card is one sure way to appear like you just got off the boat...( or in some cases, on it...)

[ECD]

Furthermore, we definitely need a thread devoted only to Sys 40A betting strategy choices. I've mentioned the 234 prog before but not the 345. This is a very valuable option and makes a lot of sense.

Think about this: When you lose your 3 bet prog playing standard U1D2 M2, you are automatically down either SIX base bets (123) or half the time, NINE base bets (234). Pretty touch to make up for that loss.

But with a straight 345 with no Mandatory 4, when you lose the entire 3 bet prog you are only down FOUR base bets and it is ALWAYS only 4 base bets. Much more conservative and far easier to make up that loss. FOUR winning bets makes up for a losing prog rather than 6 or 9.

With U1D2 M2 a GREAT start has you up ten in the first col. But with both the 234 and the 345 prog we often found ourselves up 20+ late in the first col.

With U1D2 M2 +20 is a great shoe!

With a simple 345 prog we are already looking at shoes in the 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s.

Yet your down side risk seems less - down -1, and down -5.

Yet no one in the Baccarat world has ever tried this before.

With the 123 when you lose a 3 bet prog you MUST go to the higher bet (456) to make up for your loss, exposing yourself to huge losses.

When we lost the 345 we simply started over because a 3333 win already makes up for a 345 loss.

Yet nobody in Baccarat has ever tried this before.

With U1D2 M2 a 7 unit average is excellent.

Yet with 234 and 345 we averaged 17 and had I not screwed up those two shoes we would have averages about 22 or 23.

I'm very anxious to get these betting options under full discussion. I think they present brand new opportunities no one has ever looked at before. Again, as usual, WE are the cutting edge of this new technology.

I can tell you one thing for sure - it put the casino in shock. Us too!

This puts the emphasis on selecting the system that wins the most FIRST bets. I recall one shoe where Keith said to me: Ellis, we just won 19 out of 21 bets. I looked up. Everyone at the table including the dealer and the pit boss was staring at us. No one else was even ahead! We were +36 or some damn thing and it was still early in the shoe!

Don't you agree that Sys 40A betting strategy deserves its own thread?

Look at it this way: We were playing $5 units. I won 170 units that should have been over 200 had I not made that ONE mistake. I usually play black. But if we had only played green, and made no errors, we would have been up over $5000 in two days playing part time!

Edited October 13, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

I am all for Ellis' idea of putting Sys40 Advanced in a "manual" for all to see/discuss/play/share results.

I would also suggest a one page "cheat sheet" that summarizes the start/stop/bet this way/bet that way "rules"

Most of us can only deal with a one page "system", and this we can write most of it in code right on our casino-provided "scorecard"...using the casino-provided card is one sure way to appear like you just got off the boat...( or in some cases, on it...)

Ha, well worded kachaz!

Edited October 14, 2010 by ECD