NOR Manual Questions

[aegis21]

When does betting atr against the run come up? Is it only in a small percentage of run-less shoes? And if that is the case what is considered a run-less shoe? No 4 or mores? No 5 or mores?

Or is it the next bet after otr wins? And if that is the case, should we track that first atr and bet according to how that bet turned out? As if you lose it once then the next time you bet 2 units lose again bet 3 and so forth?

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

I started playing 2 shoes and could not get off first base. Could you please comment.

B225112154222242 This is the !st shoe

B111112211812111231113341 This is the 2nd shoe.

About money management. You said when starting and you would reach -8 or more with your next bet leave the game.

What are the triggers to stop playing? Eg I believe when you reach +6 you would stop betting if your next bet would take you below +1. Is there a trigger when you reach +10, +15, +20, +30, ?When betting 123 4 progression,when do you switch to 234 and 345 progressions? Is it after a +10 unit win or +15 unit win. What is your exit strategy. Would love to hear your comment. Thanks

Frank77

I copied this question of Frank's over from another thread.

Frank, it sounds to me like you did't get your new manual yet.

Everyone should have a new NOR manual now. If you don't just send an email to Keith@beatthecasino.com with NOR Manual for your subject and he will automatically return your email with the manual attached.

Then Frank, put your questions in this NOR manual questions thread.

[Guest]

When does betting atr against the run come up? Is it only in a small percentage of run-less shoes? And if that is the case what is considered a run-less shoe? No 4 or mores? No 5 or mores?

Or is it the next bet after otr wins? And if that is the case, should we track that first atr and bet according to how that bet turned out? As if you lose it once then the next time you bet 2 units lose again bet 3 and so forth?

Hi John. We would almost never continue betting ATR for more than 2 losing bets (Mode 2) or 3 losing bets (Mode 3)

Then our choice is either go OTR or stop betting and wait for the run to end. The only time we would do the latter is when the table is simply producing no runs whatsoever which is very rare indeed. But sometimes we get this esp as an accident with factory pre-shuffled cards.

[Guest]

Originally Posted by Frank77

Hi Ellis,

I started playing 2 shoes and could not get off first base. Could you please comment.

B225112154222242 This is the !st shoe

B111112211812111231113341 This is the 2nd shoe.

Frank

Hi frank!

Neither of these shoes is a keeper, and I can't tell where you were in the shoe when you started writing the plays down.

But the 2nd shoe is S40 Mode 2. If you started at play 2 you hit +10 on the 5th circle of the 8 provided you bet 3 on the 4th circle. But that's about all you can do when you get a sudden 8 after perfect chop. If you get these sudden long runs a lot there in Austrailia you need to stay on them until you lose. The rest of the shoe is pretty good if you survived the 8.

The first shoe is OTB4L M2. You are going to lose a 123 against that first 4 if you hadn't already got out with +10. But then you do great after that. The 2nd 4 you are in Mode 3 so it is not a problem.

How do I know it's OTB4L? It starts with 3 2s!

Edited December 2, 2011 by Guest

[MVSeahog]

How do I know it's OTB4L? It starts with 3 2s!

Now there's a gem that could easily be missed by a lot of people. (Uh, including me) as I didn't "see" it right off the bat like I should have.

Back to the the study mode!

MVS

[jjeff]

Hi Ellis,

Where do I find the sample shoes that go with the NOR Manuel?

Thanks Joe

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

Where do I find the sample shoes that go with the NOR Manuel?

Thanks Joe

6 shoes will be posted today on the thread NOR Manual Sample Shoes

I had to overnite them to Keith since both my scanners are down.

There is one sample for each system played both with 123 4 betting and advanced betting so you can see the difference.

Also it has been suggested that we post the actual 6 infamous shoes from the last seminar. I'll ask Dave to do that.

Once the 6 sample shoes are posted I'll do play by plays with them. The shoes won't be a fancy posting - they will look much like your casino score card.

[witchygal]

Hi Witchy! Yes, I think that is best. Unlike S40, when you win an OTB4L OTR bet in Mode 2, the run has already gone 5. So if you now bet against the run, you are really betting it won't go 9. That is usually a pretty safe bet.

Only if the shoe is favoring runs of 6 or more thus far would you consider staying OTR for 2 bets in Mode 2. And that is very rare. In Mode 3, always stay OTR for only one bet. We don't usually see enough 10 in a rows to worry about. BUT, if you DO at the casino you play, you need to take that into consideration.

So was the "difference" in your shoes positive or negative?

Have been testing out the new OTR method for OTB4L at casino and more units were hit! I see an improvement on hit rate. Thanks Ellis for the revision!

[witchygal]

So Witchy, do you think our Singaporean members will understand it pretty good?

Yes i believe so. It is quite straight forward and easy to understand. However it will be good to have sample shoes to show how we place the bets. As the shoes in my local casino seems to be so mixed and modes always changed too many times, i feel that sometimes i have to use 2 systems in one shoe.

[Guest]

Have been testing out the new OTR method for OTB4L at casino and more units were hit! I see an improvement on hit rate. Thanks Ellis for the revision!

Right, the improvement would usually be slight but we can use every bit of advantage we can get. And you can always go back to 2 OTR bets with OTB4L if that is what the shoe you are playing indicates. The more we let the shoe tell us what to do, the better off we are.

[Keith Smith]

You overnighted them and it is set to restricted delivery where I have to sign. The post office is closed I played a gig last night and didn't get in till 4am. I just got up. I'll have to get them on Monday and post them.

Regards

KEith

6 shoes will be posted today on the thread NOR Manual Sample Shoes

I had to overnite them to Keith since both my scanners are down.

There is one sample for each system played both with 123 4 betting and advanced betting so you can see the difference.

Also it has been suggested that we post the actual 6 infamous shoes from the last seminar. I'll ask Dave to do that.

Once the 6 sample shoes are posted I'll do play by plays with them. The shoes won't be a fancy posting - they will look much like your casino score card.

[Baccarat A]

Yeah! Just had some sort of mental block. Think that we call them "senior moments".

[ECD]

SAMPLE NOR GAME #1

Thank you for posting these excellent example shoes. I have a couple questions on shoe #1 (S40 start mode 2)

1. When you do not have better information, do you prefer to start in Mode 2 in order to keep to a 3-bet progression?

2. Would you exit the shoe after play #22 when you went +10?

3. On the changing modes, I can see that the first OTR you bet 1 unit at play #13. The next time you bet 3 units in the progression at play #29. When you lost the 3 unit OTR bet at play #35, you were then in Mode 3. How come the next time you went OTR at play #55 you went back to a 1 unit bet, instead of a 4 unit bet? Is it because the last time there was a 4 in a row it did not go to 5?

4. While in Mode 2, your 3rd bet at play #58 was an opposite. SHouldn't that been OTR?

These shoes are great for our learning -- and I am really looking forward to the seminar next weekend.

[ECD]

SAMPLE NOR GAMES #3 and #4

Shoe #3 is OTB4L M2. I notice the first time there are 2 losses iar the OTR bet is for 1 unit on chop (play #30) and streak (play #42). After that, the OTR bet is in the progression (a 3 unit bet at play #58 on streak and #67 on chop).

Why on play #42 on Shoe #4 (the advanced progressions) is the first streak OTR play at the 3rd bet in the progression, where in shoe #3 it is first bet in the progression?

[Guest]

SAMPLE NOR GAME #1

Thank you for posting these excellent example shoes. I have a couple questions on shoe #1 (S40 start mode 2)

1. When you do not have better information, do you prefer to start in Mode 2 in order to keep to a 3-bet progression?

Exactly right way2fast! Same as saying to avoid 4 bets.

2. Would you exit the shoe after play #22 when you went +10?

Yes! I draw the line at play 20. I only attempt going past 10 if I get to +10 before play 20. And then I capture +9. So in this shoe, even had I attempted going past +10, I would have ended up at +9. Sure I would have been a little disappointed sitting there watching the shoe go to +20 after I quit at +10 BUT I know from experience that if a shoe got to +10 after play 20 you will usually wish you had quit at +10.

3. On the changing modes, I can see that the first OTR you bet 1 unit at play #13. The next time you bet 3 units in the progression at play #29. When you lost the 3 unit OTR bet at play #35, you were then in Mode 3. How come the next time you went OTR at play #55 you went back to a 1 unit bet, instead of a 4 unit bet? Is it because the last time there was a 4 in a row it did not go to 5?

All correct! Yes, I could have bet 4 at play 55 and your reason for betting only 1 IS a good reason. But to avoid the dreaded 4 bets as much as possible I think it is prudent to go down to a 1 bet on your first OTR bet in BOTH Modes and that was my first Mode 3 OTR bet. That keeps your 4 bets at an absolute min. Note when you see the 6 shoes posted from the last seminar I only bet 4 Once in 6 shoes. Now you know how I did that. So, did it hurt me? Hardly! I managed a 26% P.A. for those 6 shoes which I'm sure is a world record for 6 shoes.

4. While in Mode 2, your 3rd bet at play #58 was an opposite. SHouldn't that been OTR?

Ha, good eye but no because I had already gone OTR on that run so now I bet dead against the run. Your only other option when you lose your return bet after your OTRs is to bet off on off on the run until it ends. I only do that if I'm seeing LOTS of long runs but in that case I'm not likely to be playing S40.

These shoes are great for our learning -- and I am really looking forward to the seminar next weekend.

Right, it is easier to point out the finer points if you are using actual shoes or play by plays. But you are catching on to stuff real good way2fast.

[Guest]

BTW guys, the final OR count for shoe #1 was +9. This goes to show you that S40 doesn't need a huge OR count to produce really good results. +9 is close to average for the choppy third of shoes. +8 is exactly average for the half of all shoes that are choppy.

[uneek]

Can anyone play this shoe and tell me how you did?

Thanks, Tom

b121113112214

b231222233

b251112111221

[ECD]

Yes! I draw the line at play 20. I only attempt going past 10 if I get to +10 before play 20. And then I capture +9. So in this shoe, even had I attempted going past +10, I would have ended up at +9. Sure I would have been a little disappointed sitting there watching the shoe go to +20 after I quit at +10 BUT I know from experience that if a shoe got to +10 after play 20 you will usually wish you had quit at +10.

Makes perfect sense. How often do you find you hit +10 in the first column? It seems to me that if you are hitting that many bets you would be in either 234 or 345 in the first column, and therefore not stopping at +10.

Ha, good eye but no because I had already gone OTR on that run so now I bet dead against the run. Your only other option when you lose your return bet after your OTRs is to bet off on off on the run until it ends. I only do that if I'm seeing LOTS of long runs but in that case I'm not likely to be playing S40.

How many bets would you make against that continuing streak? Your 3 bet after the 7 iar won, but if it went to 8 iar what would you do? As you were in Mode 2, would you have considered stopping after losing the 1,2 until the streak ended?

[Baccarat A]

Sample Game 1

Hi Ellis,

First I want to say that the new manual is superb. Quite clear and concise. Thank you. Now let’s get on with sample shoe #1. I know that after reading everything in the NOR threads and the manual, I, and I think that a much of the membership would not have played the shoe as you did. And to me, that presents a big problem.

Let’s look at the first 14 hands. I think that all of us would have started out with S40, but I think that a serious diversion would have occurred when the Banker got his first 3. At this point in the shoe, neither side had had a 3 and no mode had been established. I think that I would have stopped betting at this point and wait to see what was going on. I think that a lot of other people would have played for the chop since S40 thrives on 1’s, 2’s and 3’s, just assuming that the 3 was going to confirm. What was the logic of going OTR in untested waters?

Once this run turned into a 5, I would take another look at the shoe. I vaguely remember something about if you see a 4 or more think F. Also, switch systems if another one would have preformed better. After hand 14 the OR is 0 and we are up 4 units. The Player side has 3-1’s and a 2 for a total of 5 (looking rather weak) and the Bank side has 2-1’s, 1-2, and 1-5 for a total of 9 (looking rather strong). OK so how would F had played to this point. Again starting with a 1 bet at hand 4 and playing F 3 we would be at 8 units—twice as many. I believe that over the next 11 hands that F gets to 15 before the problems begin.

I am not criticizing your method of play, it produced a great result and you are the master. I want to understand your thinking and the fallacy with my logic above.

Thanks

[Guest]

Can anyone play this shoe and tell me how you did?

Thanks, Tom

b121113112214

b231222233

b251112111221

Well Tom, this is not going to be a good shoe no matter what you do because the Mode keeps changing.

First you have a 3. The next run is 4 and the next back to 3.

You actually would be better off with OTB4L but the early ZZ leads you away from OTB4L.

Starting S40 exactly as played in the manual and starting at play 2, you arrive at play 17 with +6.

But then at play 20 you are faced with a 3 bet that could take you back to 0. Per the manual's tight cash mgt. I would have quit at +3 at play 19.

Yes, it happens the shoe does pretty good after that and gets to plus 8 but I would not take that chance in a shoe where I lost my first 2 OTR bets.

But let's stick to the shoes already posted for now.

[Guest]

Makes perfect sense. How often do you find you hit +10 in the first column? It seems to me that if you are hitting that many bets you would be in either 234 or 345 in the first column, and therefore not stopping at +10.

Yes, good observation! Sometimes you get to +10 in the first col because of a high hit rate on your 2nd bet if you started the shoe early enough. But 2nd bets are scary so you'd likely quit at +10 anyway. It is never a bad move to quit at +10.

How many bets would you make against that continuing streak? Your 3 bet after the 7 iar won, but if it went to 8 iar what would you do? As you were in Mode 2, would you have considered stopping after losing the 1,2 until the streak ended?

Correct, either the 2 or the 3. I will usually go to the 3 but never the 4. If that happened, the next run I would just stay on until I lost.

[Guest]

Sample Game 1

Hi Ellis,

First I want to say that the new manual is superb. Quite clear and concise. Thank you. Now let’s get on with sample shoe #1. I know that after reading everything in the NOR threads and the manual, I, and I think that a much of the membership would not have played the shoe as you did. And to me, that presents a big problem.

Let’s look at the first 14 hands. I think that all of us would have started out with S40, but I think that a serious diversion would have occurred when the Banker got his first 3. At this point in the shoe, neither side had had a 3 and no mode had been established. I think that I would have stopped betting at this point and wait to see what was going on. I think that a lot of other people would have played for the chop since S40 thrives on 1’s, 2’s and 3’s, just assuming that the 3 was going to confirm. What was the logic of going OTR in untested waters?

Once this run turned into a 5, I would take another look at the shoe. I vaguely remember something about if you see a 4 or more think F. Also, switch systems if another one would have preformed better. After hand 14 the OR is 0 and we are up 4 units. The Player side has 3-1’s and a 2 for a total of 5 (looking rather weak) and the Bank side has 2-1’s, 1-2, and 1-5 for a total of 9 (looking rather strong). OK so how would F had played to this point. Again starting with a 1 bet at hand 4 and playing F 3 we would be at 8 units—twice as many. I believe that over the next 11 hands that F gets to 15 before the problems begin.

I am not criticizing your method of play, it produced a great result and you are the master. I want to understand your thinking and the fallacy with my logic above.

Thanks

Well first, excellent post! And right, the option of betting 0 on your first OTR situation is included in the manual. So if you had bet 0 at play 13, you would not be going against the manual. But I still would have then bet 1 OTR at play 14 and the rest of the shoe would stay the same.

Right, 5s are something to pay attention to but also recognize that S40 M2 LOVES 5s. Had Mode 2 already been decided before that 5 we would have killed it even more.

One persistent problem I keep seeing is players switching Too often. I'm trying to emphasize finding the right shoe in the first place rather than relying on switching. Usually the more you switch the worse you do. On the other hand NEVER switching won't do either. From the standpoint of teaching I think the hardest part is getting the right amount of emphasis on every facet.

We need to face every shoe with an open mind because the fact is "the same Baccarat shoe has never been dealt twice." I think iron clad rules are a mistake. No two players are ever going to look at a shoe exactly the same way but that doesn't mean that one of them is wrong.

Hey, purely mechanical systems are iron clad...but they lose! Dividing shoes into 3 categories, by itself, is a major step toward winning. If I can just get everyone doing THAT, as a group, we will be the best players in Baccarat. If we all play shoes a little differently, so be it. We'll still do better than anyone else.

Edited December 5, 2011 by Guest

[ECD]

Congratulations Ellis! This has to be the best and most complete manual you've ever written bar none. The examples are well chosen to demonstrate the systems, and modes of NOR. I think it is probably the best work ever written for baccarat profit seekers.

I just have one comment from my personal perspective. You know how I like to exploit second liners and I am constantly watching for the clumping of the 2+s. Well here's my suggestion. When playing the NOR approach and we are in OTB4L mode, why not place a larger bet on the 2nd liners. OTB4L thrives on them and if it's an OTB4L shoe this would be a very good chance to increase out profits. Just had to add that!

For the Sappers, it's like when 2s are MC.. 2nd liners are HOT!

Thanks for your excellent work.

PJ

[Guest]

Congratulations Ellis! This has to be the best and most complete manual you've ever written bar none. The examples are well chosen to demonstrate the systems, and modes of NOR. I think it is probably the best work ever written for baccarat profit seekers.

I just have one comment from my personal perspective. You know how I like to exploit second liners and I am constantly watching for the clumping of the 2+s. Well here's my suggestion. When playing the NOR approach and we are in OTB4L mode, why not place a larger bet on the 2nd liners. OTB4L thrives on them and if it's an OTB4L shoe this would be a very good chance to increase out profits. Just had to add that!

For the Sappers, it's like when 2s are MC.. 2nd liners are HOT!

Thanks for your excellent work.

PJ

Right PJ! And I often make such plays especially when I'm playing with Keith because he is very good at noticing such things. He might say something like: "you know we won this particular bet the last 7 times it came up - why are we only betting one unit." Hard to argue with that kind of logic.

You know, mathematically 1st liners and 2nd liners are a 50/50 proposition. But in the real world of actual games the streaky half has its highest hit rate on second liners. It is easy to see why. In streaky shoes you can't have 3 in a rows or 4 or mores W/O first having a two in a row. So the streakier the shoe (The more minus the OR count is), the more dependable 2nd liners become. Simple logic. The opposite is also true. The choppier a shoe is the more reliable first liners become. There really is no magic in it. That is why S40 strongly favors 1st liners but avoids entrapping you into always betting them. But OTB4L always bets second liners.

[joeystyle]

Congratulations Ellis! This has to be the best and most complete manual you've ever written bar none. The examples are well chosen to demonstrate the systems, and modes of NOR. I think it is probably the best work ever written for baccarat profit seekers.

I just have one comment from my personal perspective. You know how I like to exploit second liners and I am constantly watching for the clumping of the 2+s. Well here's my suggestion. When playing the NOR approach and we are in OTB4L mode, why not place a larger bet on the 2nd liners. OTB4L thrives on them and if it's an OTB4L shoe this would be a very good chance to increase out profits. Just had to add that!

For the Sappers, it's like when 2s are MC.. 2nd liners are HOT!

Thanks for your excellent work.

PJ

My question to Papa Joe, Ellis and others who have experienced great success using NOR & SAP, what is your increase in units bet when you see 2's as MC in OTB4L or a plethora of 1's in SB40 situation. If we are adhering to a 123 4 bet placement strategy. Would you jump say from a 1 unit bet to 3 units in these of situations? Just want to get an idea of has been working over time as a sensible approach to increasing the unit size in higher percentage bets. Also,how many units in profit are you in before you think about increase your units size?

Ciao

Joey