Confirmation and correction

[ChiefAurelius]

Hi all,

I was hoping for some advice from the more experienced than I.

As part of my learning progression, I went to the casino last night to 'road test' my latest block of learning.

The first shoe I hit, I got completely scraped.

Still, it's important to get beat under live conditions I believe, so that I come back bigger & better next time.

So, I was hoping I might get some feedback on what I might have done better, and what I missed (I'm sure I missed lots).

The shoe in question:

B 111133631

P 1113312122111

P 322312312

P 1112

I jumped in on hand 4 as it seemed to clearly be S40 time. I picked up that and the next bet to be 2 units up. The next 2 Bs handed out 2 losses.

So I went Mode 2 Chop which dealt a third loss. I'm still shaky at my betting progressions, so I'd raised my bet to 2 units for that one.

Being a newbie, I tried to recheck my OR count and regather, jumping in 2 hands later with a progression to a bet of 3 units - as the OR count seemed to be heading in a negative direction. That one missed also, as it reverted to B which racked my loss rate to 7.

I was eating into my stake, so I once again recalibrated, double checked the OR count (too much of a perfectionist and under the belief that I must have mis-strategized). I tagged the last two bets of the F run on B, but lost the next 2 P hands. Hit the stop loss and withdrew to simply track the shoe for my records.

I was frustrated as the shoe progressed, as I had an enormous hit rate on the zero bets (dummy bets) from then on, but 'that's baseball for ya'.

Any insight would be GREATLY appreciated so thanks in advance.

Chief

PS I ended up the night on a smaller table which I entered late in the piece and rode that for a 10/6 Win/Loss. It played out much more simply and I think I played it neatly - making my money on s40 and Mode2 when it diverged on the Player run. The shoe was:

P 14111242211

B 111431222112

B 1111251111

[ChiefAurelius]

To add to the analysis... in reading my notes, I think I broke the 12 play rule in not leaving it alone after the first twelve plays didn't display an obvious bias. Thoughts?

[ECD]

Hi all,

I was hoping for some advice from the more experienced than I.

As part of my learning progression, I went to the casino last night to 'road test' my latest block of learning.

The first shoe I hit, I got completely scraped.

Still, it's important to get beat under live conditions I believe, so that I come back bigger & better next time.

So, I was hoping I might get some feedback on what I might have done better, and what I missed (I'm sure I missed lots).

The shoe in question:

B 111133631

P 1113312122111

P 322312312

P 1112

I jumped in on hand 4 as it seemed to clearly be S40 time. I picked up that and the next bet to be 2 units up. The next 2 Bs handed out 2 losses.

So I went Mode 2 Chop which dealt a third loss. I'm still shaky at my betting progressions, so I'd raised my bet to 2 units for that one.

Being a newbie, I tried to recheck my OR count and regather, jumping in 2 hands later with a progression to a bet of 3 units - as the OR count seemed to be heading in a negative direction. That one missed also, as it reverted to B which racked my loss rate to 7.

I was eating into my stake, so I once again recalibrated, double checked the OR count (too much of a perfectionist and under the belief that I must have mis-strategized). I tagged the last two bets of the F run on B, but lost the next 2 P hands. Hit the stop loss and withdrew to simply track the shoe for my records.

I was frustrated as the shoe progressed, as I had an enormous hit rate on the zero bets (dummy bets) from then on, but 'that's baseball for ya'.

Any insight would be GREATLY appreciated so thanks in advance.

Chief

PS I ended up the night on a smaller table which I entered late in the piece and rode that for a 10/6 Win/Loss. It played out much more simply and I think I played it neatly - making my money on s40 and Mode2 when it diverged on the Player run. The shoe was:

P 14111242211

B 111431222112

B 1111251111

I most likely wouldn't have played your first shoe...especially without some recent table history...Early ZZ followed by 2 3iar scares me off S40 a bit and the 2 3's mean I'm not thinking F. That only leaves OTB4L...but no way is that shoe screaming out OTB4L...so I'm off to look for another table .

Your second shoe...the early 4iar puts me on F2 at play 8 and a switch to P side F3 (3rd bet rule) at play 13

At play 18 ...after 2 4 2 2 at +6 (U1D1 M2) I'm definitely thinking switch to OTB4L ...Playing OTB4L U1D1 M2 I pull out at +24 on play 46 when I complete the sequence and win my last 2 bet.

With a lowest score of -1 and a highest bet of 5...the shoe works out fairly comfortable without being a worldbeater

[ChiefAurelius]

Thanks Oz!

That helps. And certainly makes me feel better.

Hey, have you noticed at Sydney casino how the dealers will occasionally shake the shoe? By that I mean that they grasp the end of the shoe, raise it, shake it and put it back in position.

Am I being overly cynical by thinking that this might trigger a shuffle inside the remaining shoe?

Thanks again.

Chief

[ECD]

Thanks Oz!

That helps. And certainly makes me feel better.

Hey, have you noticed at Sydney casino how the dealers will occasionally shake the shoe? By that I mean that they grasp the end of the shoe, raise it, shake it and put it back in position.

Am I being overly cynical by thinking that this might trigger a shuffle inside the remaining shoe?

Thanks again.

Chief

I guessed it was Sydney Casino...so no table history there.

I haven't noticed that shaking the shoe thingo...but If I do...I'll walk away from the table on the spot and make certain every other player knows why.

Your thoughts Ellis?

Take care

Oz

BTW: I'm pretty busy for the next few days...but after the weekend, I'll post several of my shoes from Sydney and you'll see when you play them out, the advantages of being really selective with your table selection. Dazza asked me to post them as well, but I just haven't got around to it.

[shereevanest]

No. I use to be a dealer and dealt bacc. It means the shoes are very new or the cards are old and not coming down so they can easily get them out. Shaking and dropping it on the table just makes the cards come down where they can reach them. It does not change the sequence they are in.

[ECD]

Thanks Oz!

That helps. And certainly makes me feel better.

Hey, have you noticed at Sydney casino how the dealers will occasionally shake the shoe? By that I mean that they grasp the end of the shoe, raise it, shake it and put it back in position.

Am I being overly cynical by thinking that this might trigger a shuffle inside the remaining shoe?

Thanks again.

Chief

Sorry mate...I made a typo in my post...check it again...I highlighted it in red...The results are still the same

Oz

[ECD]

No. I use to be a dealer and dealt bacc. It means the shoes are very new or the cards are old and not coming down so they can easily get them out. Shaking and dropping it on the table just makes the cards come down where they can reach them. It does not change the sequence they are in.

Thanks mate...It helps to hear from the inside...Are you our resident "SNITCH"? LOL

[shereevanest]

I could be lol

[ECD]

No. I use to be a dealer and dealt bacc. It means the shoes are very new or the cards are old and not coming down so they can easily get them out. Shaking and dropping it on the table just makes the cards come down where they can reach them. It does not change the sequence they are in.

What's the situation then with preshuffled shoes?

[Guest]

Hi all,

The shoe in question:

B 111133631

P 1113312122111

P 322312312

P 1112

Well, I'll take the first one. Chief, I think you are trying to overcomplicate things.

I hate it when a shoe starts with a run because it can really screw up your OR count. The starting ZZ swayed you to S40.

Had you started at play 2 with S40 M3, you score a roller coaster +10 at play 34 and again at the last play. But you incurred a 6 bet and 2 5s along the way. Not bad but:

Look, deciding to start at play 4, you've already missed the ZZ run so there isn't a big future in jumping on it that late. Might at well start with standard book NOR+ OTB4L M3. You finish the first col at +6 and all are OTB4L M3 events - a double 1, 2 3s, a 6 and a 1. So clear sailing thus far.

The 2nd col starts with a triple 1 that gets you to your 4 OTR but you win your 4 as well as your 2 and it is clear sailing to +13 and ends at +10. But your 3rd col is super OTB4L and brings you quickly to +24. And if you stay in you finish at +24. Straight NOR + OTB4L M3 right out of the book. No complications. Your highest bet was 4. Your hit rate and your PA were huge.

So would I let the 6 switch me to Mode 2? NO! Mode 2 only has an advantage in streaky shoes and it likes 5s. This shoe is quite choppy and there are no straight 5s.

[MVSeahog]

Look, deciding to start at play 4, you've already missed the ZZ run so there isn't a big future in jumping on it that late.

That would be the part (and logic) I've been missing on a high starting count shoe.

Thanks.

MVS

[shereevanest]

Where I was we never had preshuffled shoes but I don't like it. I like to see the cards opened and spread on the table to make sure they are all there and have not been tampered with myself.

[ChiefAurelius]

Well, I'll take the first one. Chief, I think you are trying to overcomplicate things.

I hate it when a shoe starts with a run because it can really screw up your OR count. The starting ZZ swayed you to S40.

Had you started at play 2 with S40 M3, you score a roller coaster +10 at play 34 and again at the last play. But you incurred a 6 bet and 2 5s along the way. Not bad but:

Look, deciding to start at play 4, you've already missed the ZZ run so there isn't a big future in jumping on it that late. Might at well start with standard book NOR+ OTB4L M3. You finish the first col at +6 and all are OTB4L M3 events - a double 1, 2 3s, a 6 and a 1. So clear sailing thus far.

The 2nd col starts with a triple 1 that gets you to your 4 OTR but you win your 4 as well as your 2 and it is clear sailing to +13 and ends at +10. But your 3rd col is super OTB4L and brings you quickly to +24. And if you stay in you finish at +24. Straight NOR + OTB4L M3 right out of the book. No complications. Your highest bet was 4. Your hit rate and your PA were huge.

So would I let the 6 switch me to Mode 2? NO! Mode 2 only has an advantage in streaky shoes and it likes 5s. This shoe is quite choppy and there are no straight 5s.

Thanks Ellis.

I thought you might turn it on its head!

The question that arises for me from your answer is in your approach. The thing that I've made the core of my play having read substantial amounts of the material - is the OR count. I feel like I've been looking for a sunrise in the west for the entire time I've been playing Bac, and someone (you and NOR) have said "keep your eyes peeled to what's happening in the east".

So, if the OR count would lead me to select S40, is there an assessment point that you would see that starts to make you realise that S40 was a red herring and the true selection was OTB4L? I suppose my elongated question is: "how do you know?" If I jump in at play 2, I only have the OR count to guide (no past history on the preshuffled shoes).

In my inexperience, am I missing that it might be best to lead in with OTB4L M3 until/unless the shoe starts playing out clearly in a direction?

Also, with regards OTB4L M3, is that U1D2M3 (meaning that the third bet is a mandatory 3 units)?

Forgive me for all the questions, I'm just determined as hell to be very good at this.

Thanks to you and all on the forum for the help.

Cheers

Chief

[ChiefAurelius]

Sorry mate...I made a typo in my post...check it again...I highlighted it in red...The results are still the same

Oz

Thanks Oz. That makes sense.

Cheers mate.

Chief

[Guest]

Thanks Ellis.

I thought you might turn it on its head!

The question that arises for me from your answer is in your approach. The thing that I've made the core of my play having read substantial amounts of the material - is the OR count. I feel like I've been looking for a sunrise in the west for the entire time I've been playing Bac, and someone (you and NOR) have said "keep your eyes peeled to what's happening in the east".

So, if the OR count would lead me to select S40, is there an assessment point that you would see that starts to make you realise that S40 was a red herring and the true selection was OTB4L? I suppose my elongated question is: "how do you know?" If I jump in at play 2, I only have the OR count to guide (no past history on the preshuffled shoes).

In my inexperience, am I missing that it might be best to lead in with OTB4L M3 until/unless the shoe starts playing out clearly in a direction?

Also, with regards OTB4L M3, is that U1D2M3 (meaning that the third bet is a mandatory 3 units)?

Forgive me for all the questions, I'm just determined as hell to be very good at this.

Thanks to you and all on the forum for the help.

Cheers

Chief

I think I might best begin my reply with I virtually never start in the blind - meaning I am virtually always starting with the information from prior shoes or from a half filled tote board or from player score cards or most of all, from knowing what shoe type that particular casino presents at that time of day. For instance Gold Strikie, Tunica, my favorite casino, and I suspect also PJ's favorite casino, is virtually always OTB4L in the morning - this due to the regular new cards morning card prep that they use. I'm usually there to watch the dealer do their standard card prep to be sure there have been no changes. That card prep not only produces OTB4L but a choppy Mode 3 OTB4L. This information nearly always gets me off to a flying start after getting up real early to be there at the right time of day. By afternoon at that same casino, the Bac tables can be anything but the 2 deck BJ tables are virtually always ripe for NBJ 3rd base. It makes for like a perfect casino day.

For instance I was playing BJ there with Keith and his X one afternoon when my morning Bac dealer stopped by our BJ table and said to them: "I don't know why Ellis is playing BJ When he cleaned me out playing Bac this morning".

Prior information at the table we select is our biggest and most valuable asset. But playing shoes here on the forum, members virtually never supply that information. But they should. This makes members put too much emphasis on shoe starts. Nevertheless, I note that these days, more than half the shoes members or casinos supply are OTB4L and I usually play them successfully OTB4L starting with Mode 3 or choppy OTB4L just as I did with YOUR shoe. Check other member posted shoes I have played.

For instance, the last Vegas seminar, I played about 20 Bac shoes, all origionally preshuffled cards. I did well but I noted afterwards I would have done even better if I had stuck to OTB4L no matter how the shoe started.

Casinos are trying their very best to beat us and casinos do best with OTB4L because the average player has no idea how to beat such shoes. Casinos pride themselves with their "control" abilities. You will even hear, IF you listen, pit bosses saying things like "I lost control of that table" when talking amonst themselves. It all adds up to the fact that OTB4L will dominate more than half the time even when shoes don't start out that way. Proof is the fact that casinos are always reporting impossibly high Bac profits. Impossible, that is, if the cards were random.

An exception was Atlantic City when I played those now infamous 6 shoes. I played S40. Why? Because 2 of our members were good enough to scout the city before I played. So before I even got there I already knew what and where to play.

This is why with NOR+ I tell you to base with OTB4L M3 U1D2 and dive right in at play 2 unless prior information tells you otherwise. You will be right more often than not - and Start right out with 123 regardless if you have won a bet or not. Unless a shoe starts with a ZZ run of 4 or a straight run of 5, you're in. And how often is that going to happen? - and it could happen no matter where you start. The odds are clearly with you.

Look, the casino is offering us an advantage by favoring OTB4L but it is not an advantage unless we take advantage of it. The sooner the better because no matter how long we wait, we pretty much face the same odds.

Which brings up the question: Had I started at play 2 In YOUR shoe which started with a 5 ZZ, would I have made the 4 bet inspite of the fact that losing it would put me at -10. Answer: More than likely because the odds are so heavily in my favor. Again, only a 4 ZZ or a 5 straight can beat me. A 5 ZZ or a 6 straight, I'm OK. I'm willing to take that small risk with NOR+. I'll usually hit but if I miss, which is very rare, so I blew my stop loss by 1 or 2 units. Big Whip. Look at how often I'm going to hit - ANYTHING but a 4ZZ or 5 straight. That is the advantage of casinos favoring OTB4L. And if I'm wrong and should be playing S40 or F, it will be EXTREMELY obvious.

No, OTB4L M3 means OTB4L Mode 3. We have no such thing as a mandatory 3. But we often couple a mandatory 2 with U1D1 in which case we say U1D1M2. This means we ALWAYS go to 2 after 1 whether we won or lost the 1. Gives you a few extra units in a good shoe. Tricks of the trade.

Look at the OR count as training wheels. The sooner you can shed that and go by events, the better.

S40 likes dominant 1's

OTB4L likes dominant 2s (Most shoes are one or the other)

F likes long runs straight or ZZ and SS.

Preshuffled shoes: The only time this matters much is new cards every shoe which is usually reserved for 14 player tables in high stakes parlors. Most members don't like those games because they are so slow.

On the floor, how the cards started out in the morning is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is what they've settled in to doing now. But even new preshuffled cards tend to favor OTB4L more than not.

NOR+ says: Go with OTB4L until that proves wrong because it usually won't - not these days and not at most casinos.

[Guest]

Where I was we never had preshuffled shoes but I don't like it. I like to see the cards opened and spread on the table to make sure they are all there and have not been tampered with myself.

Absolutely! Spreading the cards should still be mandatory EVERYwhere. It is the only way you can know for sure you haven't been short decked. Not all but nearly all casinos will cheat if given the opportunity. They don't necessarily tell their dealers to cheat but they put so much pressure on them to win that dealers and pit bosses don't have any choice if they want to keep their jobs. And some casinos flat out make their dealers cheat and show them how to do it. That is another thing I like about the Gold Strike, Horseshoe complex at Tunica. They don't cheat.

But elsewhere, even at major casinos like Foxwood or Caesars, I've caught them red handed at least a thousand times. What concerns me is the times I didn't catch them.

A good thing about Baccarat is there is less opportunity for cheating than BJ. Short decking makes no difference in Bac so they don't bother with that. But there are other ways to control the outcome of the hand. I prefer these new machines that automate the hit/stand decision. But I've even seen scary stories about THEM on the internet.

There was Philip at Turning Stone, NY. Instead of dealing the 4 cards directly to the table he dealt them to his right hand, then snatched the 2 cards for Player. You never knew WHICH 2 cards he snatched. All you knew was the table lost every hand no matter which side you bet. Yep, I caught Philip red handed. I entrapped him. The casino Mgr made a big show firing him on the spot. BUT, who taught Philip that trick? I'm betting it was the casino. Sorta like the CIA - If you get caught, we don't know you. Just don't ever do what Ann did. She threw her chips at him. Throw your shoe or an ash tray - never your chips! Esp since they were really MY chips. God help us! Ha, that's another one for my book, The Player.

You know, you see all these shows on TV about player cheaters. Pure BS. Maybe one player in a thousand cheats. I wish that were true of casinos. I think a show about casino cheating would have far more to work with and it would be far more interesting. While I've caught casinos cheating at least a thousand times, I only caught a player cheating once. The guy next to me was stealing my chips. And man, could that son of a ***** run!

[Guest]

There was one other time I caught a player cheating. It turned out to be a life changing event and another great story for my book. It was early in my BJ career. I was already a notorious BJ player in AC but my game was due to have much more refinement - a lot of it due to what happened that crucial night:

I was playing 3rd base (last seat) at a full 7 player 8 deck BJ table. (I would learn later to never play full tables). It was a $100 table which translates to $1000 in today's dollars. This was at the high stakes parlor at the Sands which was the most notorius BJ casino in those days with hundreds of BJ tables - almost nothing else.

Anyway there was this attractive Asian girl playing to my right and winning BIG time up $10 or $15,000. Eventually I noted that she would always bet a pile of 10 blacks. But very oddly she would leave her fingers surrounding her bet until the instant the dealer dealt the first card to the First Base player at the other end of the table. Then she would remove her hand always leaving either one chip or all ten. I soon noticed that when she left only one chip she usually lost but when she left all ten she invariably won. Absolutely fascinating to me! It took me a while to catch on! When the first card dealt down there was a ten value card (color) she left all ten chips up. Anything else she left only the one chip up. High cards favor the players - low cards favor the dealer. She was using that first card as a "tell" to signal a high card player favorable round. And she was usually right because 8 deck clumps the cards the most, especially at night with older cards. See, there is a lot to this game.

Technically, she was not cheating. The dealer was! She isn't supposed to start the deal until all hands have been removed from the bets. So it quickly occurred to me the two were in cahoots. But their timing was sooo close. No one was the wiser. Except me of course. And I said nothing. I was busy learning the best trick ever in BJ from these two girls. And it kept working!

I couldn't sleep that night. I pondered this until I had the most important revelation in the history of BJ. There is a perfectly legal way to do the exact same thing that will perform even better!

She should NOT have been sitting in the 6th seat. She SHOULD have been in the first seat (First Base). Then when the last card(s) dealt in a round is a ten, she makes her 10 chip bet for the next round. Why? Because the next card dealt will be her first card and highs at the end of a round signal a high card round coming but now there are no cards in between. SEE THAT? And now the whole thing is completely LEGAL. Hence, the most important discovery in the history of BJ and the birth of the NBJ First Base System. How's that for a refinement! The casinos were clueless. It never occurred to them that my tell was in the prior round.

How well does it work?

Soon after this brealthrough discovery I performed Taj 1 and 2 two weeks apart in front of a total of 500 invited spectators (many of them card counters) both at the same table in the high stakes parlor at the Taj. My low bet was $100. My high bet was $200. I won exactly $10,000 inside of a half hour BOTH times playing head to head 8 deck BJ W/O ever betting over $200. By a country mile that was the best play ever in the history of BJ.

And I never even knew her name!

[Fedda]

Now when talking shuffles, do they use CSM's (Continous shuffle machines) anywhere in baccarat? If thats the fact, does it shuffle after every game or is it a timer? I would of course never sit at that kind of table. Interesting though how far they will go to avoid biased tables..

[Guest]

So now I had the NBJ 3rd base system which virtually always beats random (new) cards and NBJ First Base for clumped cards.

Those systems got me barred from every casino in A.C and all major casinos in Vegas! So, I began teaching them much to the disgruntlment of all the card counting gurus. They still today call me every name in the book.

[Guest]

Now when talking shuffles, do they use CSM's (Continous shuffle machines) anywhere in baccarat? If thats the fact, does it shuffle after every game or is it a timer? I would of course never sit at that kind of table. Interesting though how far they will go to avoid biased tables..

ff, I have never heard of continuous shuffle machines in Bac, just BJ. With CS machines, every round goes immediately back into the machine right while it is shuffling. I wish they would be declared illegal because it is not true BJ. True BJ includes card depletion.

[Pamela Conkey]

Hi Ellis, Brian from Rochester NY here. If a shoe starts out with a ZZ like this one did and we choose otbl.

Should we be in mode 2 for ZZ runs at this point?

[Guest]

Hi Ellis, Brian from Rochester NY here. If a shoe starts out with a ZZ like this one did and we choose otbl.

Should we be in mode 2 for ZZ runs at this point?

Wow, an excellent question! While we normally think of a ZZ run as chop pointing toward Mode 3, with OTB4L a ZZ run is a run for our ZZ game - the ZZ side of OTb4L. Just as a starting straight 5+iar would switch us to Mode 2 for straight runs, a starting 4+ ZZ would switch us to Mode 2 for ZZs because both cause a losing 3.

But, should we switch to mode 2 after the losing 2 bet? Hmm, I never thought of that but I don't think it's a good idea: for straight runs 4s occur twice as often as 5s so our best bet is Mode 3.

For ZZs 3s occur twice as often as 4s so our best odds bet is still Mode 3.

At least that is the way I see it.

[Pamela Conkey]

Thanks Ellis. I see the logic. Brian.............

[ChiefAurelius]

"And I never even knew her name!"

Damn, that was funny! I laughed so hard I nearly choked on my coffee.

Well played.